Category Archive: 6b.) Acting Man

Wall Street – Island of the Blessed

Which Disturbance in the Farce can be Profitably Ignored Today? There has been some talk about submerging market turmoil recently and the term “contagion” has seen an unexpected revival in popularity – on Friday that is, which is an eternity ago. As we have pointed out previously, the action is no longer in line with the “synchronized global expansion” narrative, which means with respect to Wall Street that it is best ignored.

Read More »

Gold Sector – An Obscure Indicator Provides a Signal

The Goldminbi. In recent weeks gold apparently decided it would be a good time to masquerade as an emerging market currency and it started mirroring the Chinese yuan of all things. Since the latter is non-convertible this almost feels like an insult of sorts. As an aside to this, bitcoin seems to be frantically searching for a new position somewhere between the South African rand the Turkish lira.

Read More »

An Inquiry into Austrian Investing: Profits, Protection and Pitfalls

“From a marketing perspective it pays to be overconfident, especially in the short term. The higher your conviction the easier it will be to market your investment ideas. I think the Austrian School is at a disadvantage here because it’s more difficult to be confident about your qualitative predictions and even in terms of investment advice it is particularly difficult to be confident in these times because we don’t really have any historical...

Read More »

A Scramble for Capital

A Spike in Bank Lending to Corporations – Sign of a Dying Boom? As we have mentioned on several occasions in these pages, when a boom nears its end, one often sees a sudden scramble for capital. This happens when investors and companies that have invested in large-scale long-term projects in the higher stages of the production structure suddenly realize that capital may not be as plentiful as they have previously assumed.

Read More »

Getting Their Pound of Flesh – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

Read More »

US Money Supply and Fed Credit – the Liquidity Drain Becomes Serious

Our good friend Michael Pollaro, who keeps a close eye on global “Austrian” money supply measures and their components, has recently provided us with a very interesting update concerning two particular drivers of money supply growth. But first, here is a chart of our latest update of the y/y growth rate of the US broad true money supply aggregate TMS-2 until the end of June 2018 with a 12-month moving average.

Read More »

The Gold Sector Remains at an Interesting Juncture

Technical Divergence Successfully Maintained. In an update on gold and gold stocks in mid June, we pointed out that a number of interesting divergences had emerged which traditionally represent a heads-up indicating a trend change is close (see: Divergences Emerge for the details). We did so after a big down day in the gold price, which actually helped set up the bullish divergence; this may have felt counter-intuitive, but these set-ups always do....

Read More »

Gold – Macroeconomic Fundamentals Improve

A Beginning Shift in Gold Fundamentals. A previously outright bearish fundamental backdrop for gold has recently become slightly more favorable. Ironically, the arrival of this somewhat more favorable situation was greeted by a pullback in physical demand and a decline in the gold price, after both had defied bearish fundamentals for many months by remaining stubbornly firm.

Read More »

Black Holes for Capital – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

Race to the Bottom, Last week the price of gold fell $17, and that of silver $0.30. Why? We can tell you about the fundamentals. We can show charts of the basis. But we can’t get into the heads of the sellers. We can say that in the mainstream view, the dollar is rising. The dollar, in their view, is not measured in gold but in rupees in yuan and rubles. You know, all the superior forms of money…

Read More »

Merger Mania and the Kings of Debt

Another Early Warning Siren Goes Off. Our friend Jonathan Tepper of research house Variant Perception (check out their blog to see some of their excellent work) recently pointed out to us that the volume of mergers and acquisitions has increased rather noticeably lately. Some color on this was provided in an article published by Reuters in late May, “Global M&A hits record $2 trillion in the year to date”, which inter alia contained the following...

Read More »

The Fed’s “Inflation Target” is Impoverishing American Workers

Redefined Terms and Absurd Targets. At one time, the Federal Reserve’s sole mandate was to maintain stable prices and to “fight inflation.”  To the Fed, the financial press, and most everyone else “inflation” means rising prices instead of its original and true definition as an increase in the money supply.  Rising prices are a consequence – a very painful consequence – of money printing.

Read More »

Gold Divergences Emerge

Bad Hair Day Produces Positive Divergences. On Friday the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China was apparently escalated by a notch to the next level, at least verbally. The Trump administration announced a list of tariffs that are supposed to come into force in three week’s time and China clicked back by announcing retaliatory action. In effect, the US government said: take that China, we will now really hurt our own consumers!  – and...

Read More »

Dimitri Speck über Türkei, Italien, EU und Euro

https://www.responsa-liberta.de/ Die aktuelle Lage rund um Italien, EU und Euro – während der Fokus derzeit vor allem auf der aktuellen Regierungsbildung in Italien liegt, führt Dimitri Speck (Seasonax / Tool für Saisonale Statistiken) im folgenden Interview aus, welche Folgen er beispielsweise für die türkische Lira aufgrund der Zinserhöhungen und aktuellen Dollarstärke für möglich hält. Auch …

Read More »

Is Political Decentralization the Only Hope for Western Civilization?

A couple of recent articles have once more made the case, at least implicitly, for political decentralization as the only viable path which will begin to solve the seemingly insurmountable political, economic, and social crises which the Western world now faces.

Read More »

Tales from “The Master of Disaster”

Daylight extends a little further into the evening with each passing day. Moods ease. Contentment rises. These are some of the many delights the northern hemisphere has to offer this time of year. As summer approaches, and dispositions loosen, something less amiable is happening. Credit markets are tightening. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note has exceeded 3.12 percent.

Read More »

Gold and Gold Stocks – Conundrum Alert

Moribund Meandering Earlier this week, the USD gold price was pushed rather unceremoniously off its perch above the $1300 level, where it had been comfortably ensconced all year after its usual seasonal rally around the turn of the year. For a while it seemed as though the $1,300 level may actually hold, but persistent US dollar strength nixed that idea. Previously many observers (too many?) expected gold to finally break out from its lengthy...

Read More »

How to Get Ahead in Today’s Economy

This week brought forward more evidence that we are living in a fabricated world. The popular story-line presents a world of pure awesomeness. The common experience, however, falls grossly short. On Tuesday, for example, the Labor Department reported there were a record 6.6 million job openings in March. Based on the Labor Department’s data, there were enough jobs available – exactly – for the 6.6 million Americans who were actively looking for a...

Read More »

The Capital Structure as a Mirror of the Bubble Era

As long time readers know, we are looking at the economy through the lens of Austrian capital and monetary theory (see here for a backgrounder on capital theory and the production structure). In a nutshell: Monetary pumping falsifies interest rate signals by pushing gross market rates below the rate that reflects society-wide time preferences.

Read More »

The Story of India’s Demonetization | Jayant Bhandari

Jayant is constantly traveling the world to look for investment opportunities, particularly in the natural resource sector. He advises institutional investors about his finds. He is a contributing editor of the Liberty magazine and has written for the Mises Institute, the Mises Institute (Canada), Casey Research, Le Québécois Libre, Sprott’s Thoughts, LewRockwell.com, etc. The presentation …

Read More »

From Fake Boom to Real Bust

More is revealed with each passing day. You can count on it. But what exactly the ‘more is of’ requires careful discrimination. Is the ‘more’ merely more noise? Or is it something of actual substance? Today we endeavor to pass judgment, on your behalf.

Read More »