Category Archive: 6b.) Acting Man

The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches

2020-02-18

by

2020-02-18

Post Hoc Fallacy. On Tuesday, at the precise moment Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell commenced delivering his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, something unpleasant happened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) didn’t go up. Rather, it went down.

Read More »

A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year

2020-02-15

by

2020-02-15

Novo Nordisk, seasonal pattern over the past 10 years
An Example of Strong Single Stock Seasonality. Many individual stocks exhibits phases of seasonal strength. Being invested in these phases is therefore an especially promising strategy. Danish drug company Novo Nordisk.

Read More »

The Triumph of Madness

2020-02-13

by

2020-02-13

Historic Misjudgments in Hindsight. Viewing the past through the lens of history is unfair to the participants.  Missteps are too obvious.  Failures are too abundant.  Vanities are too absurd.  The benefit of hindsight often renders the participants mere imbeciles on parade.

Read More »

Wealth Consumption vs. Growth – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2020-01-03

by

2020-01-03

Gold and Silver Prices
GDP – A Poor Measure of “Growth” Last week the prices of the metals rose $35 and $0.82. But, then, the price of a basket of the 500 biggest stocks rose 62. The price of a barrel of oil rose $1.63. Even the euro went up a smidgen. One thing that did not go up was bitcoin. Another was the much-hated asset in the longest bull market. We refer to the US Treasury.

Read More »

Real High Crimes and Misdemeanors

2019-12-24

by

2019-12-24

World Class Entertainer in the Cross-Hairs. Christmas is no time to be given the old heave-ho.  This is a time of celebration, redemption, and excess libation.  A time to shop ‘til you drop; the economy depends on it. Don’t get us wrong.  There really is no best time to receive the dreaded pink slip.  But Christmas is the absolute worst.  Has this ever happened to you?

Read More »

The Strongest Seasonal Advance in Precious Metals Begins Now

2019-12-20

by

2019-12-20

Plans and Consequences. You are probably already getting into the holiday spirit, perhaps you are even under a little stress. But the turn of the year will soon be here – an occasion to review the past year and make plans for the new one. Many people are doing just that – and their behavior is creating the strongest seasonal rally in the precious metals markets.

Read More »

Banana Republic Money Debasement In America

2019-12-16

by

2019-12-16

Addicted to Spending. There are many falsehoods being perpetuated these days when it comes to money, financial markets, and the economy. But when you cut the chaff, three related facts remain: Uncle Sam needs your money. He needs a lot of your money. And he needs it bad!

Read More »

Riding the Type 3 Mega Market Melt Up Train

2019-11-11

by

2019-11-11

Beta-driven Fantasy. The decade long bull market run, aside from making everyone ridiculously rich, has opened up a new array of competencies. The proliferation of ETFs, for instance, has precipitated a heyday for the ETF Analyst. So, too, blind faith in data has prompted the rise of Psychic Quants… who see the future by modeling the past.

Read More »

Maurice Jackson Interviews Brien Lundin and Jayant Bhandari

2019-11-09

by

2019-11-09

Our friend Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable has recently conducted two interviews which we believe will be of interest to our readers. The first interview  is with Brien Lundin, the president of Jefferson Financial, host of the famed New Orleans Investment Conference and publisher & editor of the Gold Newsletter – an investment newsletter that has been around for almost five decades, which actually makes it the longest-running US-based...

Read More »

Incrementum 2019 Gold Chart Book

2019-10-31

by

2019-10-31

Gold beer ratio,1950-2015
The Most Comprehensive Collection of Gold Charts. Our friends at Incrementum have just published their newest Gold Chart Book, a complement to the annual “In Gold We Trust” report. A download link to the chart book is provided below. The Incrementum Gold Chart Book is easily the most comprehensive collection of charts related to or relevant to gold available anywhere.

Read More »

The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins

2019-10-30

by

2019-10-30

S&P 500 Index, seasonal pattern since 1950.
The Strongest Seasonal Stock Market Trend. Readers may already have guessed: when the vibrant colors of the autumn leaves are revealed in all their splendor, the strongest seasonal period of the year begins in the stock market – namely the year-end rally. Stocks typically rise in this time period. However, there are questions, such as: how often does a rally take place, how strong is it, and when is the best time for investors to enter the market?

Read More »

America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028

2019-10-21

by

2019-10-21

Planning on Your Behalf. Watch out! At this very moment, professional economists of all stripes are making plans on your behalf. They are dreaming and scheming new and innovative ways to spend your money long before you have earned it. While you are busy at the gristmill, grinding away for clients and customers, claims are being laid upon your life.

Read More »

A Gain of 1,080 percent Annualized – One of the Strongest Seasonal Rallies is Starting Right Now

2019-10-16

by

2019-10-16

Bitcoin – An Exceptional Asset. When I first heard about Bitcoin (BTC) in May 2011, it was trading at 8 US dollars. Today, more than eight years later, BTC trades at around 8,000 dollars. A thousandfold increase! An investment of 1,000 dollars at the time would have resulted in a gain of more than a million  –  a dream result.

Read More »

US Money Supply Growth – Bouncing From a 12-Year Low

2019-10-16

by

2019-10-16

US broad true money supply TMS-2, year-on-year growth w. 12-month moving average
True Money Supply Growth Rebounds in September. In August 2019 year-on-year growth of the broad true US money supply (TMS-2) fell to a fresh 12-year low of 1.87%. The 12-month moving average of the growth rate hit a new low for the move as well. The main driver of the slowdown in money supply growth over the past year was the Fed’s decision to decrease its holdings of MBS and treasuries purchased in previous “QE” operations.

Read More »

Fed Chair Powell’s Inescapable Contradiction

2019-10-14

by

2019-10-14

Conflict and contradiction. These were two of the main themes reverberating around the world of centralized monetary planning this week. On Tuesday, for instance, a novel and contradictory central banker parlance – “reserve management purposes” – was birthed into existence by Fed Chair Jay Powell. We will have more on this later on. But first, to best appreciate the contradiction, we must present the conflict.

Read More »

Repo Quake – A Primer

2019-10-03

by

2019-10-03

Chaos in Overnight Funding Markets. Most of our readers are probably aware that there were recently quite large spikes in repo rates. The events were inter alia chronicled at Zerohedge here and here. The issue is fairly complex, as there are many different drivers at play, but we will try to provide a brief explanation.

Read More »

Scientific Long-Term Study Confirms: Seasonality is the Best Investment Strategy!

2019-07-23

by

2019-07-23

Excess Returns
A Pleasant Surprise. You can probably imagine that I am convinced of the merits of seasonality. However, even I was surprised that an investment strategy based on seasonality is apparently leaving numerous far more popular strategies in the dust. And yet, this is exactly what a recent comprehensive scientific study asserts – a study that probably considers a longer time span than most: it examines up to 217 years of market history!

Read More »

Paul Tudor Jones Likes Gold

2019-06-13

by

2019-06-13

Gold Hedgers Position, 2009-2019
Gold is Paul Tudor Jones’ Favorite Trade Over the Coming 12-24 Months. In a recent Bloomberg interview, legendary trader and hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones was asked what areas of the markets currently offer the best opportunities in his opinion. His reply: “As a macro trader I think the best trade is going to be gold”.

Read More »

A Surprise Move in Gold

2019-06-08

by

2019-06-08

Gold, 30-year seasonal chart
Traders and Analysts Caught Wrong-Footed. Over the past week gold and gold stocks have been on a tear. It is probably fair to say that most market participants were surprised by this development. Although sentiment on gold was not extremely bearish and several observers expected a bounce, to our knowledge no-one expected this.

Read More »

Bitcoin: What is the Best Day of the Week to Buy?

2019-06-06

by

2019-06-06

BTC average daily performance
Shifting Patterns. In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have discussed Bitcoin’s seasonal pattern in the course of a year. In this issue I will show an analysis of the returns of bitcoin on individual days of the week. It seems to me that Bitcoin is particularly interesting for this type of study: it exhibits spectacular price gains, it is a very new instrument and it is unregulated. Moreover, it trades around the clock, even on weekends.

Read More »