Tag Archive: #USD

FX Weekly Preview: Brexit Comes to a Head, and while Europe and US Data Rebound, the Equity Rally Falters

2019-03-11

Brexit comes to a head. By nearly all reckoning, the Withdrawal Bill will be resoundingly defeated in the House of Commons on March 12. The margin of defeat may not match the first rejection, but it will be the death knell to the path that had been negotiated for a year and a half.

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FX Daily, March 08: Equities Slump on Growth Concerns ahead of US Jobs

2019-03-08

by Marc Chandler

2019-03-08

Overview: A weak economic assessment in the Beige Book and an ECB that slashed growth forecasts have been followed by news of a nearly 21% slump in China's exports have marked the end of the dramatic equity rally that was seen in the first part of 2019 after the sharp losses late last year.

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FX Daily, March 07: EMU Looks to ECB

2019-03-07

by Marc Chandler

2019-03-07

The ECB meeting is today's highlight. A dovish signal is expected. The euro remains pinned near its lows ahead it. The global equity market rally in January and February is faltering this week. Asian equities were mixed, but the Nikkei eased for the third consecutive session.

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FX Daily, March 6: The Dollar Index Extends Gains into the Sixth Consecutive Session

2019-03-06

by Marc Chandler

2019-03-06

Overview: The capital markets are on edge. The week's big events lie ahead. The Bank of Canada meets today and the ECB tomorrow, followed by US (and Canada) employment data on Friday. The equity markets are mixed. While Japan and Korean equities eased, China's markets continue their tear.

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Thoughts about the ECB and Euro

2019-03-06

by Marc Chandler

2019-03-06

Mario Draghi's term at the helm of the ECB is winding down. He will step down in October. It has not been an easy job. The light at the end of the tunnel in 2017 turned out to be another train in 2018. The eurozone enjoyed 0.7% quarterly growth every quarter in 2017. The ECB was able to outline an exit from its asset purchases. The debate began over sequencing and when the first rate hike could be delivered.

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FX Daily, March 05: Dollar Remains Firms as China Cuts Growth Target and Taxes, while EMU PMI Surprises on Upside

2019-03-05

by Marc Chandler

2019-03-05

Overview: It is an eventful day, but the capital markets are taking it in stride. Equity markets are mixed. Asia may have been weighed down by China's shaving its growth target and announced around CNY2 trillion (~$300 bln) in tax cuts to support the economy, though Chinese stocks edged higher.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dovish Hold by the ECB and Uptick in US Wages will Underscore Divergence

2019-03-04

by Marc Chandler

2019-03-04

The important events take place in the second half of the week ahead: the ECB meeting and the US employment report. A dovish hold by the ECB is the most likely outcome. US jobs growth is bound to slow from the heady 304k gain in January, but there won't be anything in it that lends credence to ideas that the world's largest economy is on the precipice of a recession.

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FX Daily, March 01: Could the Worst be Behind China and Germany? Or Hope Springs Eternal

2019-03-01

by Marc Chandler

2019-03-01

Overview: News that MSCI plans to substantially boost China's equity weighting in its indices and a better than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI and some easing of India-Pakistan tensions helped bolster the risk-taking appetite going into the weekend. This lifting equity and weighing on bonds. China's CSI 300 rose 2.2% for a 6.5% weekly gain.

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FX Daily, February 27: Dollar Trades Heavily, While Prospects of a Softer and Later Brexit Send Sterling Higher

2019-02-27

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-27

Overview: As the North American session is about to begin, the markets await developments in the UK House of Commons where a vote is expected today on Prime Minister May's proposal to hold votes on around March 12 on the Withdrawal Bill and no deal. However, perceptions of a reduced likelihood of a no-deal exit continued to fuel sterling gains.

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FX Daily, February 26: Brexit Dilution Lifts Sterling, while Yesterday’s Equity Rally Fades, Powell Awaited

2019-02-26

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-26

Overview: The increased likelihood that Brexit is delayed and the possibility of a second referendum is helping lift sterling. As has been the case for most of the time since the June 2016 referendum, the prospects of a softer and/or later Brexit is understood as sterling positive. The other key focus is US-Chinese trade.

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FX Daily, February 25: Dollar Thumped on Confirmation of Tariff Delay while Stocks Advance

2019-02-25

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-25

Overview: The extension of the US-China tariff freeze had been telegraphed, but the confirmation is the single biggest driver of the day. Equities, led by a 5%+ advance in China, have rallied in Asia and Europe. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly 1-2 basis points higher. Peripheral yields are lower.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead

2019-02-25

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-25

After a dismal end of 2018, investors are faring better through the first two- thirds of the Q1 19. Equity markets have recouped a good part of the late-2018 decline. Bond yields, however, have not returned to where they previously were. The tightening of financial conditions, which was both cause and effect of heightened anxiety among investors, and spooked some central bank have eased considerably.

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FX Daily, February 20: US-China Trade and Brexit Dominate Ahead of FOMC Minutes

2019-02-20

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-20

Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, but the strongest currency today is the Chinese yuan, following reports that US wants China to keep the yuan stable and not offset US tariffs with currency depreciation. The second monthly decline in Japanese exports weighted on the yen. In the UK, another Labour MP left, while there is speculation that a few Conservatives may defect today.

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FX Daily, February 18: Dollar Drifts Lower

2019-02-18

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-18

Overview: In quiet turnover, the US dollar slipped lower against most of the major currencies to start the new week. The news stream is light and the US markets are closed today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up five of the past six weeks and extended its gains today. Nearly all the equity markets in the region rose but India.

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FX Daily, February 12: Dollar Buying Pressure Subsides

2019-02-12

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-12

The Dollar Index's eight-day advance is in jeopardy. Although the greenback recorded new highs against some major currencies, the momentum appears to be stalling. The news stream is constructive as a compromise seems to have been reached to avoid another US government shutdown, and there is some optimism that the US and China will strike a deal even if not by March 1.

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FX Daily, February 11: Dollar Starts New Week on Firm Note

2019-02-11

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-11

Lifted by the re-opening of Chinese markets after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, global equities are trading firmer. Outside of Japanese markets that were closed, the large markets in Asia--China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong advanced.

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Cool Video: Noise or Signal?

2019-02-10

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-10

From the second half of last week through the first half of this week, the S&P 500 rallied. It surpassed our target of 2700 and made it to almost 2740, retracing more nearly 2/3 of the decline from the record high set last September. It stalled ahead of the 200-day moving average, which had previously offered support declines.

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FX Daily, February 08: Dollar Index Seven-Day Advance is the Longest in Two Years

2019-02-08

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-08

Overview: As North American traders return to their posts to put the finishing touches on the week's activity, the Dollar Index is extending its advance for a seventh consecutive session. If sustained, it will be the longest advance since February 2017.

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FX Daily, February 07: Dollar’s Gains Extended

2019-02-07

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-07

The five-day advance of the S&P 500 stalled yesterday and global equities are mixed today. Most Asian centers remain closed, Japan and some small markets were lower, while Taiwan, Australia, and India moved higher. The seven-day rally in Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is under threat today.

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FX Daily, February 06: Dollar Gains by Default

2019-02-06

by Marc Chandler

2019-02-06

Overview: The rally in equities is threatening to pause today, even though the few markets open in Asia edged higher. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600, which has advanced in eight of the past ten sessions and six in a row, is seeing some profit-taking pressures. US shares are also trading heavier in Europe. The S&P 500 has a five-day rally in tow but looks poised for some backing and filling action.

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