Tag Archive: #USD

Scandis and Antipodeans Lead the Greenback’s Recovery

2023-06-20

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2023-06-20

Overview: The market continues to resist the Fed's signal that another 50 bp of hikes may be necessary to ensure inflation is headed toward its target. Previously, the market had rate cuts priced in, and it took some time for the Fed's push back to be accepted. The market converged with the Fed, and this helped the dollar recover. We suspect a similar pattern to play out again. The market does not have even one of the two Fed hikes discounted. As...

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BOJ Stands Pat while the Dollar is Consolidating Ahead of the Weekend

2023-06-16

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2023-06-16

Overview: The market has not yet become convinced that the Fed will in fact deliver the two hikes the median dot anticipates this year, and the dollar was sold off sharply yesterday, the day after the FOMC meeting. In fact, the swaps market is more convinced that the ECB hikes in July than the Fed. Outside of the yen, which was sold after the BOJ stood pat, the G10 currencies are mostly little changed, consolidating the recent moves. Emerging...

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ECB’s Turn

2023-06-15

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2023-06-15

Overview: The Fed's hawkish hold and signal that it may raise rates two more time this year sent ripples through the capital markets. Risk appetites have been dealt a blow. However, China's rate cut and likely additional supportive measures after disappointing data, helped lift the CSI 300 by 1.6%, the most this year. The Hang Seng rose by nearly 2.2%, the most in three months. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day advance and US index futures...

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Fed Day: Skip = Hawkish Pause, but Market Says Finito

2023-06-14

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2023-06-14

Overview: The year-end effective Fed funds rate implied in the futures market is about 5.11%. The rate has been averaging 5.08% since the Fed hiked rates last month The Fed may go to pains to explain that the steady that to be announced later today is just a pause to get a better read on the economy, the market favors this to be the end of the tightening cycle. The dollar is trading softer against nearly all the G10 currencies. Emerging market...

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PBOC Surprise Rate Cut and a Strong UK Labor Market Report Ahead of US CPI

2023-06-13

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2023-06-13

Overview: A surprise cut in China's seven-day repo and a stronger than expected UK employment report are session's highlights ahead of the US CPI. The base effect alone suggests a sharp fall in the year-over-year rate, while the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey has been shaved to a 0.1% month-over-month gain. The dollar is under pressure and is weaker against nearly all the G10 currencies. It is mixed against the emerging market currencies....

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Ahead of the Week’s Central Bank Meetings, Risk Appetites Stoked

2023-06-12

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2023-06-12

Overview: Today may be the calm ahead of a tomorrow's US CPI and rate decisions by the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC over the next few days. Most large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose and Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline. US index futures are trading higher. US 10-year yield is slightly firmer as are core European benchmark yields. The dollar is under broad pressure and is weaker against the G10 currencies. Against emerging...

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Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of the Weekend

2023-06-09

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2023-06-09

Overview:  Long US dollar positions were pared yesterday as rates unwound the gains scored in the wake of the Bank of Canada's surprise hike on Wednesday. It is consolidating today as the market looks toward next week’s central bank meetings (FOMC, ECB, and BOJ) and a flurry of data. It is also possible that China shaves the benchmark one-year medium-term lending facility rate. Broadly speaking the greenback is still tracking rates, and the more...

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Japan’ Q1 GDP was Revised Up, While the Eurozone’s was Revised Down

2023-06-08

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2023-06-08

Overview: The back-to-back surprise rate hikes by the Australia and Canada spurred speculation that the Fed could hike next week, and this lifted US rates and helped the dollar recover. The odds of a hike increased, according to the indicative pricing in the Fed funds futures market from about a 20% chance to a little above 35%. now. At yesterday's high, the two-year yield was up a little more than 25 bp since the low before the US employment data...

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RBA Surprises with a Quarter-Point Hike and German Factory Orders Disappoint

2023-06-06

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2023-06-06

Overview: The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised many with a quarter-point hike and German factory orders unexpectedly fell. Reports suggest that China has asked banks to cut deposit rates. The next result is the Australian dollar is the strongest currency in the G10 and helped lift the Canadian dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada meeting tomorrow. Australian stocks sold off (~1.2%) while large markets outside of China rose in the region. Europe's...

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Dollar Gains Extended, Oil Steadies at Higher Levels after Saudi’s Cut, US Bill Deluge Begins Today

2023-06-05

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2023-06-05

Overview:  The US dollar has extended its post-employment gains today, helped by firmer rates and several countries seeing downward revisions from the preliminary May PMI. The greenback is trading with a firmer bias against all the G10 currencies and most of the emerging market currencies, including Turkey, India, and China. July WTI gapped higher after the Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary and unilateral cut of one million barrels a day in output...

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US Debt Ceiling Drama Ends with a Whimper, Focus on US Jobs and Fed

2023-06-02

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2023-06-02

Overview: Another bizarre US debt-ceiling episode is over. President Biden will sign the bill that was approved by the Senate late yesterday. It is a bit anticlimactic for the market, for which the US jobs data is the key focus now. Outside of the fiscal drama, the Federal Reserve leadership has effectively push against market expectations for a hike later this month. The odds were around 70% earlier this week, and ahead of the jobs report, is...

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Dollar Steadies After Fed’s Push Back

2023-06-01

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2023-06-01

Overview: The market was gearing up for a June Fed hike and officials and this helped lift the greenback. However, the Fed Governor Jefferson, nominated to be the next vice-chair, pushed back against it. His views are thought to reflect the Fed's leadership. Philadelphia Fed's Harker, who is a voting member of the FOMC also backed a pause. This is not quite what we expected when we suggested the US interest rate adjustment was complete or nearly...

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Debt Ceiling Progress, Weak Chinese and Japanese Data, and Soft EMU CPI, Sends the Dollar Higher

2023-05-31

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2023-05-31

Overview: The US budget agreement passed a House committee vote by 7-6 and the bill is scheduled to be voted on by the entire House today before the Senate take it up with the idea of passing it Monday. The procedural step plus the weakness of China and Japanese data and soft CPI figures from Europe has lifted the greenback against all the major currencies. The euro and Australian dollar have been sold to new lows, while the dollar holds ever so...

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The Dollar Reverses Early Gains

2023-05-30

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2023-05-30

Overview:  The debt ceiling drama is not over. The agreement between the negotiating teams of President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy sets the stage for the next act in the drama: each side must deliver the votes. A preliminary vote today in the House of Representatives is likely today ahead of floor vote tomorrow. Still, the market is optimistic, and risk is favored. Asia Pacific bourses were mixed today. We note that the chip sector helped...

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The Greenback Stalls after Yesterday’s Surge as US Negotiators Move Closer to Last-Minute Deal

2023-05-26

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2023-05-26

Overview: Yesterday's dollar surge has stalled. It is consolidating its gains and is softer against all the G10 currencies. After popping above JPY140 yesterday, there were no follow-through greenback buying in Tokyo. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer, including the South African rand, which plummeted by 2.8% yesterday on the back of the central bank's warning of downside currency risks as it delivered a 50 bp hike. The Chinese yuan...

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Fitch Puts US on Negative Credit Watch and the Dollar Extends its Gains

2023-05-25

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2023-05-25

Overview: Concerned about the political wrangling over servicing US debt, Fitch put the US on negative credit watch. Besides chin wagging and finger pointing, it has had little perceptible impact. The dollar is mostly higher, reaching new highs for the year against the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and the Antipodean currencies. The euro and sterling met retracement objective we have targeted (~$1.0735 and $1.2435, respectively). The greenback is...

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RBNZ Delivers a Dovish Hike and UK Inflation Surprises to the Upside

2023-05-24

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2023-05-24

Overview: Equities in the Asia Pacific region and Europe are being led lower by the sell-off in the US yesterday. All the large Asia Pacific markets fell with Hong Kong and mainland shares setting the pace. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off nearly 1.5%, which would be the largest loss in two months. Consumer discretionary, financials and real estate sectors are off nearly 2%. US equity futures have a softer bias. European 10-year yields are mostly 2-3 bp...

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Yen Recovers from New 2023 Low, while Sterling Sets a New Low for the Month

2023-05-23

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2023-05-23

Overview:  The dollar is bid. Only the Japanese yen is holding its own against the greenback but only after it fell to new lows for the year. The Scandis and Antipodeans are the heaviest among the G10 currencies, while sterling has fallen to a new low for the month. The prospect of a rate hike tomorrow has not protected the New Zealand dollar much and it is off nearly 0.5%. Emerging market currencies are more mixed. Outside of the Russian rouble,...

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The Dollar Consolidates after Powell Sapped its Mojo

2023-05-22

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2023-05-22

Overview:  Federal Reserve Chair Powell's offered a stronger case for a pause in the monetary tightening before the weekend and this sapped the dollar's mojo. The greenback is mostly consolidating through the European morning in quiet turnover. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is trying to snap a four-day decline. The South African rand is recovering from its recent slide and is up nearly 1%. The South Korea won is benefitting from...

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Key Chart Points Hold and the Dollar’s Rally Stalls Ahead of the Weekend

2023-05-19

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2023-05-19

Overview: Hawkish comments from Fed officials and the first decline in continuing unemployment claims below 1.8 mln in two months boosted US rates and the odds of a June rate hike rose to about 37%. This represents a near tripling of the probability in the past week. It has been a trend with the odds rising in 9 of the past 11 sessions. The two-year note yield has risen for the past five sessions coming into today for a cumulative gain of about 35...

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