Tag Archive: #USD

FX Daily, January 23: Dollar’s Pre-Weekend Retreat Extended in Asia Before Stabilizing in Europe

The US dollar had a poor close in the North American session before the weekend as investors appear increasing anxious about the new US Administration's economic policies and priorities.With no fresh details emerging over the weekend, some stale dollar...

FX Weekly Preview: The Challenging Week Ahead

Investors will finally be able to focus on what the new US President does rather than what he says. The UK Supreme Court decision is expected, but it may not be the driver than it may have previously seemed likely. The dollar-yen rate does not appear...

Cool Video: Bloomberg’s Daybreak – Dollar Correction

I was on Bloomberg's Daybreak: Americas today. The issue at hand was about the dollar's losses since the start of the year. I suggest that the correction actually began a day or so after the Federal Reserve hiked rates in mid-December. I noted that...

FX Daily, January 20: Trump Day

The dollar peaked against the yuan two days after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates in the middle of last month. We argue that that is when the market correction began, not at the turn of the calendar. Despite claims that China's currency is...

Great Graphic: Trade and Tariffs-End of an Era?

This Great Graphic was tweeted by the Financial Time's John Authers, who got it from @fathomcomment. The green line is the inversion of global trade (right-hand scale). The blue line is a trade-weighted average global tariff rate. What the chart shows...

Draghi Lets Steam out of Euro

US reported stronger than expected series of data, including a large drop in weekly jobless claims for the week of the next NFP survey. Draghi remained dovish, with key phrases retained. Euro needs to break $1.0575 now to confirm a top is in place....

FX Daily, January 19: Dollar Gives Back Most of Yellen-Inspired Gains

While the US 10-year yield is unchanged, the dollar is consolidating its gains against the yen in a relatively narrow range of about half a big figure below JPY115.00. It has seen its gains pared more against the euro and sterling, where most of...

FX Daily, January 18: Markets Stabilize, Awaiting Fresh Cues

The US dollar has stabilized after yesterday's bruising. From a fundamental perspective, little has changed. After hard exit signals from the UK government sent sterling down from $1.2430 on January 5 and 6, to below $1.20 at the start of the week,...

FX Daily, January 17: Trump’s Comments Send the Dollar Reeling

The Pound has been subjected to a heavy amount of pressure as we progress further into 2017, with GBP/CHF rates being one of the heaviest losers. The pairing is now trading at a similar level to GBP/USD levels below the 1.22 mark. Their is an enjoyable...

FX Daily, January 16: Hard Exit Talk Sent Sterling Below $1.20

The euro has been sold to $1.0580 in the European morning, a cent lower from the pre-weekend high. In addition to the drag from sterling, the euro appears to have been sold in response to the interview in two European papers of the next US President....

FX Weekly Preview: Five Events that Will Drive the Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

Bank of Canada may be more upbeat following strong jobs and trade figures. China's President Xi will speak at Davos and likely defend globalization and free trade, which some think the US is abandoning. UK PM May's speech on Brexit may be blunted by...

FX Daily, January 12: Dollar and Yields Ease Further, but Look for Recovery

After a choppy North American session yesterday, the dollar and US yields remain under pressure. The dollar is lower against all the major currencies and most emerging market currencies, including the recently shellacked Turkish lira and Mexican peso.

FX Daily, January 11: Dollar Comes Back Bid

The pound has seen a sharp fall following the interview that Theresa May gave with Sky news on Sunday although there has been a small rebound this afternoon. GBP CHF exchange rates are hovering around 1.2350 for this pair.

Great Graphic: Real Rates in US are Elevated

The US 10-year yield fell briefly below 1.32% last July. The yield slowly rose to reach 1.80% in mid-October. The day after the election, the yield initially slipped to almost 1.71%. This was a bit of a miscue, and the yield rose sharply to hit almost...

FX Daily, January 10: Positioning more than Fundamentals Give Traders Pause

After strong moves to start the year, the capital markets continue to consolidate. Many observers are suggesting a fundamental narrative behind the loss of momentum, but in discussions with clients and other market participants, it seems as if the...

The Better Way: Backing into Smoot-Hawley and Repeating the Flaws of PPP

Part of the US Republican tax reforms call for a border adjustment. It will tax imports fully and not exports. This will likely be challenged at the WTO. Many economists say the dollar will automatically appreciate by 20%. WE are bullish the dollar but...

FX Daily, January 09: Sterling Pounded by May’s Hard Brexit

Sterling has stolen the US dollar's spotlight. The issue facing market participants was if the rise in hourly earnings reported as part of the pre-weekend release of US December jobs data was sufficient to end the dollar's downside correction....

FX Weekly Preview: Macro Forces Underpin Dollar, Equities and Yields

Odds of a March Fed hike edged up last week, and Q4 GDP figures were revised higher. Many continue to expect the new US Administration to pursue pro-growth tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Although many other high income countries...

US Jobs Details Better than the Headline

The dollar and US yields are recouping more of yesterday’s decline. A break of $1.0480-$1.05 would suggest the euro’s upside bounce is exhausted. A dollar move above JPY116.80-JPY117.25 would also hint that the greenback was going to make an other run...

FX Daily, January 06: Dollar Consolidates Losses, Peso Firms while Yuan Reverses

I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBPCHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017....
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