Tag Archive: #USD

FX Daily, April 23: Greenback Slips into the Weekend

Overview:  Many narratives link the prospect of higher capital gains tax on about a third of 1% of Americans as the catalyst for losses in US equities yesterday (and Bitcoin) and weakness in some global shares today.  Of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region, only Japan, which is reimposing a formal emergency in Tokyo, Osaka, and two other prefectures, fell. 

Read More »

FX Daily, April 20: Market has Second Thoughts about Timing of First Fed Hike

Overview:  Even as US yields edge higher, the dollar struggles. With the 10-year Treasury yields now at 1.62%, nine basis points above last week's lows, the greenback has turned mixed against the major currencies. After briefly slipping below JPY108, the dollar has recovered to around JPY108.55. 

Read More »

FX Daily, April 12: Capital Markets Look for Direction

Overview: Risk appetites have not returned from the weekend.  Equities are heavy, and bond yields softer.  The dollar is drifting lower in Europe.  China's unusually candid admission of the shortcomings of its vaccine and record new cases in India saw all the equity markets in the region fall.  Only South Korea and Taiwan escaped the carnage that saw the Indian market tumble 3.5%. 

Read More »

FX Daily, April 8: Calm Capital Markets See the Dollar Drift

Overview:  Global stocks are moving higher today.  Fears of a new lockdown in Tokyo amid rising covid cases weighed on Japanese stocks, a notable exception as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for its fifth session of the past six.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is edging to new record highs today and is advancing for its fifth session of the past seven. 

Read More »

FX Daily, April 5: Market Pushes First Rate Hike into 2022

Overview: Many financial centers in Asia and Europe remain closed for the extended holiday. Although several markets that were open were higher in the Asia Pacific region, India was an exception as a record contagion sent stocks down the most in five weeks. US futures are pointing higher, led by the Dow, while the NASDAQ lags.

Read More »

April Monthly

Four major forces shaped the investment climate in the first quarter:  the evolution of the virus and the rollout of the vaccine, the rising long-term interest rates driven by higher oil prices, America’s large fiscal stimulus, and optimism about the outlook, a sharp divergence between the US and other high-income countries, and a recovery in the US dollar after sliding in November and December 2020.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 30: US Yields Push Higher, Lifting the Greenback Especially Against the Euro and Yen

The US 10-year yield is at new highs since January 2020, pressing above 1.77% and helping pull up global yields today.   European benchmarks yields are up 4-5 bp, and the Antipodean yields jump 8-9 bp.  The impact on equities has been minor, and the talk is still about the unwinding of Archegos Capital. 

Read More »

FX Daily, March 29: Markets Look for Direction after Large Block Trade and Before Key Data

The large block trade (~$20 bln) before the weekend, apparently from a family office, continued to have ripple effects today, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index barely noticed.  It extended its pre-weekend rally of 1.3%, and only South Korea and Australia fell among the major markets.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 18: Dovish Fed but Yields Rise, Helping the Greenback Recover from Yesterday’s Slide

Overview: Asia Pacific equities mostly advanced after the US benchmarks recovered following the dovish FOMC. Australia, New Zealand, and India did not participate in today's gains. European bourses edged higher, but US shares are struggling, and the NASDAQ futures are off nearly 1%, threatening to end the three-day rally. 

Read More »

FX Daily, March 16: Equities Firm, but Markets Tread Gingerly

Overview: Yesterday's new record highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial helped set the tone for today's advance in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a two-day decline, with other major markets rising today. 

Read More »

FX Daily, March 15: Big Week Begins Quietly

The capital markets are beginning a new and busy week in a non-committal fashion.  Equities are mixed.  Except for Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia, most markets in the Asia Pacific region were lower, led Chinese and Indian shares. 

Read More »

FX Daily, March 11: Risk Extends Gains Ahead of the ECB

Overview: Even though the NASDAQ closed lower yesterday and the reception of the 10-year Treasury auction did not excite, market participants are growing more confident.  Led by China, the major markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied.  The Shanghai Composite's 2.35% gain not only snaps a five-session slide but is the largest rally since last October.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 10: Markets are not Yet Convinced that Yesterday’s Move Signaled a Trend Change

Fear that yesterday's reversals represent little more than one-day wonders is contributing to the overall consolidative tone today. Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region and Europe edged higher. China's stocks tumbled yesterday, despite reports of official assistance, were mixed with the Shanghai Composite posting small gain and Shenzhen a small loss.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 9: Turn Around Tuesday Strikes

It is not clear the trigger, but risk-taking appetites rebounded smartly today after the NASDAQ completed a more than 10% pullback from its highs yesterday.  Ironically, the Dow Jones Industrials set new record highs yesterday too.  Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied.  The notable exceptions were South Korea and China. 

Read More »

FX Daily, March 8: Greenback Trades Higher in Asia before Momentum Stalls in Europe

Overview: The attack on Saudi Arabia's largest crude terminal reverberated through the capital markets, where sentiment was already fragile, despite the lack of disruption.   Brent rose to nearly $71.40, and April WTI to almost $68 extended their gains for the fourth consecutive session before being fully unwound.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 4: OPEC+ and Powell are Awaited

Overview:  Equities are under pressure following yesterday's sharp losses in the US.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index suffered its biggest decline of the week today as Japanese, Chinese, and Hong Kong benchmarks slid by more than 2%.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index in Europe is buckling under the pressure and is posting its first decline of the week. 

Read More »

FX Daily, March 2: The Dollar Finds Better Footing

Overview: A warning from China's top banking regulator about the frothiness of foreign markets appeared to blunt the knock-on effect of yesterday's largest rise in the S&P 500 since last June (~2.4%) and weighed on global equities.  The large markets in the Asia Pacific region but India and South Korea fell.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 1: Animal Spirits Roar Like a Lion to Start the New Month

Overview:  Equities and bonds jump back.  Most Asia Pacific markets advanced 1.5-2.5% after the regional MSCI benchmark dropped 3.65% before the weekend and 5.3% last week.  The recovery in European stocks was even more impressive. 

Read More »

FX Daily, February 26: Fed Hike Ideas Give the Beleaguered Greenback Support

A poor seven-year note auction and ideas that the first Fed hike can come as early as the end of next year spurred a steep sell-off in bonds and equities. Technical factors like the triggering of stops losses, large selling in the futures market, which some also link to hedging of mortgage exposure (convexity hedging), also play a role.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 24: Equities Try to Stabilize and Low Short-Term Rates Help Keep the Dollar on the Defensive

Overview:  The sharp recovery in US shares yesterday that saw the S&P 500 snap a five-day slide failed to carry into Asia Pacific trading earlier today.  All the markets fell save India and Singapore.  Losses were led by a 3% drop in Hong Kong as the first increase in the stamp duty (financial transaction tax) since 1993 was announced (0.13% from 0.10%). 

Read More »