Tag Archive: #USD

FX Daily, April 28: Markets Limp into Month End

Equity markets are stalling into the end of the month. MSCI Asia-Pacific Index is snapping a six-day advance, and the week's gain was sufficient to extend the advancing streak for the fourth consecutive month. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trading off...

FX Daily, April 27: Several Developments ahead of the ECB meeting

The ECB meeting and the press conference that follows it is the main event. However, it has had to compete with the Bank of Japan and Riksbank meetings, as well as the further reflection of the tax reform proposals by the Trump Administration yesterday.

FX Daily, April 26: Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of Trump and ECB

The US dollar was marked down in response to the French election and saw some follow through selling yesterday, but the momentum had slowed, and now it is stalled. The greenback is posting upticks against nearly all the major currencies. There is a...

FX Daily, April 25: Euro Consolidates Gains, Bond Market Sell-Off Continues

The US dollar is again at the fulcrum of the foreign exchange market. The dollar-bloc currencies are under pressure, along with the Japanese yen, while the European complex is posting modest gains. The euro is consolidating in the half cent below...

FX Daily, April 24: Dramatic Response to French Election

The results of the first round of the French election spurred a dramatic response in the capital markets. Our thesis that there is no populist-nationalist wave sweeping the world is supported by the previous results in Austria, the Netherlands, and...

FX Weekly Preview: Politics and Economics in the Week Ahead

Provided Le Pen and Macron or Fillion make to the second round, the market response to the French election results may be short lived. BOJ, Riksbank and ECB meetings. Spending authorization and some announcement from the White House on tax policy are...

State of Dollar Bull Market

The dollar market is intact, despite the pullback here at the start of 2017. We have seen similar pullbacks in 2016 and 2015. Divergence remains the key driver.

FX Daily, April 20: Dollar and Yen Push Lower

With the exception of the yen, the US dollar is lower against all the major currencies. US Treasury yields are firm, extending yesterday's rise a little. This may help keep the dollar straddling JPY109, but unwinding long yen cross positions is...

More Thinking about Trade as Pence and Ross Head to Tokyo

Pence and Ross may "feel out" Abe for interest in a bilateral trade agreement. The US enjoys a small trade surplus with countries it has free-trade agreements. Ownership-based framework of the current account and value-added trade suggest the US trade...

FX Daily, April 18: US Dollar Consolidates Yesterday’s Gains

The US dollar is consolidating the gains scored late in the US session yesterday in response to a Financial Times interview with US Treasury Secretary Munchin who seemed to play down the strategic importance of Trump's recent complaint about the...

FX Daily, April 17: Markets Trying to Stabilize in Holiday-Thin Activity

Financial centers in Europe are closed for the extended Easter holiday. Australian and New Zealand markets were also closed. The drop in US 10-year Treasury yields in early Asia, with a brief push below 2.20%, appears to have kept the dollar under...

Monetary Policy is Important, but US Fiscal Stance Moving Center Stage

Monetary policy is off the table for at least the next two months. Several fiscal issues are coming to a head. Despite the GOP majority in Congress and White House, brinkmanship cannot be ruled out.

FX Weekly Preview: What to Watch in the Week Ahead

Many observers misunderstood US President Trump's "American First" rhetoric. Trump's earlier writings show that this is not a reference to the 1940s effort to keep the US out of WWII, with its isolationist tint. Rather, Trump's use goes back to the...

Euro’s Record Losing Streak Against the Yen

The euro has fallen for 11 consecutive sessions against the yen. Interest rates, US and German in particular, seem to be the main driver. Technicals are stretched, but have not signaled a reversal yet.

FX Daily, April 14: Holiday Markets Remain on Edge

The holiday-induced calm in the capital markets conceals a high degree of anxiety. The investment climate has been challenged by heightened geopolitical risk and unusual complaints about the US dollar's strength from the sitting US President. While...

FX Daily, April 13: Greenback Stabilizes After Trump Induced Slide

The US dollar slid after US President Trump complained about its strength. The sell-off extended into early Asian activity, before stabilizing. It is mixed in late morning European turnover, which is already lightening up due to the extended Easter...

FX Daily, April 12: Investors Catch Breath, Markets Stabilize

Markets are calmer today. The significant movers yesterday have stabilized. The dollar has been unable to resurface above JPY110, but after plumbing to new lows near JPY109.35 in Asia, the dollar has recovered back levels since in North America late...

FOMC Minutes Suggest Balance Sheet May Begin Shrinking This Year

FOMC minutes increased likelihood that Fed will begin reducing its balance sheet late this year. There does not seem to be a consensus on other issues. The strength of the ADP report contrasts with softness seen in the ISM and PMI non-manufacturing...

FX Daily, April 11: Dollar Pushed Lower in Subdued Activity

The US dollar has a slight downside bias today through the European morning. The market does not seem particularly focused on high frequency data, though sterling traded higher after an unchanged year-over-year reading of 2.3%, and the euro traded...
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