Tag Archive: #USD

Heightened Speculation of a BOJ Move Tomorrow did not Stop the Nikkei from Rallying or Yen from Slipping

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a mostly softer bias against the G10 currencies. The notable exceptions are the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Ironically, speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike appears to have increased, while there is a risk that the Swiss National Bank cuts rates this week. The Norwegian krone is the strongest of the major currencies. The central bank meets later this week but is widely expected to stand pat. The...

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Euro’s Recovery to $1.09 Looks Vulnerable while Yen Falls to New Lows for the Week After Strong Pay Raises Confirmed

At the end of last week, the derivatives market was again pricing in nearly four Fed cuts this year, but this week's data have seen expectations re-converge with the Fed's three rate cuts signaled in December, while cutting the odds of June hike to the lowest in the more than four months.

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Strong US Retail Sales may Help Extend the Dollar’s Recovery

Overview: We have put emphasis on today's US retail sales report. A recovery from the weather-induced weakness in January should underscore the resilience of US demand after another 200k jobs were created and personal income jumped 1%.

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Consolidation Featured Ahead of Tomorrow’s US Retail Sales and Friday’s Japanese Wage News

Overview: We came into this week expecting the dollar to rise on the back of a recovery in rates. The two-year note has risen from 4.40% after the jobs report to 4.60%. The dollar's rise has been less impressive.

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Ueda’s Comments Weigh on Yen as the Market Awaits US CPI

Overview: The US CPI has become one of the most important high-frequency economic reports for the capital markets. The dollar is going into the report narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Comments by BOJ Governor Ueda about the weakness in consumption of non-durable goods was seen by some as reducing the likelihood of a change in policy next week.

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Japan’s Q4 23 Contraction Revised Away, Helping Keep Yen Bid

Overview: News that the Japanese economy expanded rather than contracted in Q4 23 has fanned expectations that rates could be as early as next week. This is helping keep the yen supported, though it remains in the pre-weekend range, albeit barely.

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Forex Becalmed with the Greenback Mostly Firmer in Narrow Ranges

(Business trip will interrupt the commentary over the next few days.  Check out the March monthly here.  Back with the Week Ahead on March 9. May have some comments on X @marcmakingsense.) Overview: Outside of the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are off by 0.20%-0.25%, the other G10 currencies are little changed and mostly softer in narrow ranges. A firm Tokyo CPI, mostly on base effects and softer rates helped keep the US dollar below...

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Narrowly Mixed Dollar to Start the Big Week for Europe and North America

Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies to begin the week that features a Bank of Canada and ECB meetings, US jobs data, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's two-day testimony before Congress, and US President Biden's State of the Union address.

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Ueda’s Comments Knock the Yen Back, while the Euro Flirts with $1.08

Overview: The US dollar is mixed today. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Scandis are enjoying a slightly firmer tone, while the euro and sterling are edging higher in European turnover.

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Yen Pops on BOJ Comments on Inflation, but the Dollar holds Most of Yesterday’s Gains against the other G10 Currencies

The dollar is mixed as the market awaits the US personal consumption expenditure deflator, which is the measure of inflation the Fed targets. While there is headline risk, we argue that the signal has already been generated by the CPI and PPI releases.

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Dollar Jumps

Overview: A less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a slightly softer than expected January CPI from Australia appears to have sparked a broad US dollar rally.

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Weak US Durable Goods may Herald Pullback in Capex

Most of the G10 currencies are trading quietly in narrow ranges today. After a slightly firmer than expected national CPI reading, which still moderated, and a pullback in US yields, the Japanese yen is the strongest of the major currencies.

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Euro Bid in Europe but Unlikely to Sustain Gains Through North America

Overview: The dollar is beginning the new week mixed. The dollar-bloc currencies and Japanese yen are softer while the European currencies enjoy a firmer today. Among emerging market currencies, central European currencies are trading with higher. The Turkish lira is the notable exception. It is the weakest currency today, off about 0.65%. The Chinese yuan is a little softer, but the dollar continues to be capped near CNY7.20. Last week, more often...

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While the Greenback has Tended to be Sold in Asia this Week, it has Recovered in North America

Overview: Amid a light news stream, the dollar is mostly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Norwegian krone, the others in a +/- 0.15% against the dollar today. We note that the technical tone of the euro and sterling have improved withe the five-day moving averages crossing above the 20-day moving averages. On the other hand, the dollar is approaching the year's low set last week near JPY150.90. Emerging market...

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Risk On, Dollar Sold

Overview: The post-close rally in US tech stocks after Nvidia's earnings has fueled risk-on activity today. The Nikkei closed at record highs with a 2.2% rally. China's CSI rose for the eighth consecutive session as official discourage sales at the open and close, and short sales in general. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up more than 0.5% to recoup the small losses seen in the last two sessions. US indices are poised to gap higher at the open. Benchmark...

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China’s CSI 300 Rises for Seventh Consecutive Session and Offshore Yuan Strengthens for the Sixth Session

Overview: The dollar is trading quietly after being sold yesterday. It is still soft against the dollar bloc and the Swiss franc but is firmer against the other G10 currencies. Narrow ranges have dominated. Emerging market currencies are mixed, with central European currencies and the Taiwan dollar trading softer. The offshore Chinese yuan is firmer for the sixth consecutive session. The highlights of today's North American session features minutes...

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Dollar Slips but Dip may Offer New Opportunity

Overview: The US dollar is offered today. It is trading softer against all the G10 currencies, with the yen the notable exception, and it is flat. The Antipodean are leading the way, taking out last week's highs, as has the euro. That said, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched as NY dealers return from the long holiday weekend. The Scandis are also trading above last week's highs. The yen, sterling, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc are...

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China Returns, the US is on Holiday, and the Dollar Consolidates

Overview: US markets are closed for President's Day, while China's markets re-opened from the long Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland stocks advanced, while the yuan slipped slightly. The US dollar is mostly softer but in narrow ranges. The Antipodeans and yen lead, while the Swiss franc the only G10 currency that is slightly softer. Most emerging market currencies are lower, led by about a 0.5% loss of the South African rand. The Mexican peso's and...

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Quiet End to a Busy Week

Overview:  The US dollar is winding down this week on a quiet note. Most of the G10 currencies are trading within yesterday's ranges. On the week, only the Scandis are set to close with gains, though with a little effort, the Australian dollar could too. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the laggards off 0.65%-0.75% this week. Most emerging market currencies outside of central Europe are firmer. The South African rand is the strongest this...

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Divergence Highlighted by Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions in Japan and the UK but Little FX Reaction

Overview: There has been a string of disappointing economic news today. Japan's economy surprisingly contracted in Q4 23 and the Q3 contraction was a little deeper than initially estimates. Australia's jobs growth was weaker than expected and unemployment rose to 4.1%, matching the highest since November 2021.

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