Tag Archive: #USD

FX Daily, October 22: Trudeau will Lead a Coalition Government in Canada, while the UK’s Johnson Fights Another Day

Overview: Bismark is said to have warned that laws were like sausages, and to respect them, one ought not to see how they are made. The UK had a non-binding referendum more than three years ago, and although it won by 52%-48% and the party leaders committed to adhering to the results, it still cannot figure out how to leave.

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FX Daily, October 21: Dollar Soft, but Stage is being Set for Turn Around Tuesday

Overview: The UK's departure from the EU remains up in the air as a new attempt to pass the necessary legislation through Parliament continues today. Many market participants seem to remain optimistic that Prime Minister Johnson's plan will ultimately succeed. After slipping to $1.2875 initially, sterling briefly pushed through $1.30, which had held it back last week.

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Cool Video: With Rick Santelli on CNBC

I was invited to Rick Santelli's Exchange on CNBC earlier today. There is a 3.5-minute clip of the interview that can be found here. Despite being a dollar bull for nearly a decade (since around the time of my first book--Making Sense of the Dollar--), I do not think a strong or weak dollar is desirable. It is about the level that is appropriate depending on business conditions and the economic cycle.

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FX Daily, October 17: EU-UK Deal Sends Sterling and the Euro Higher

Overview: A Brexit deal between the UK and the EU has been struck. Whether it can win Parliament's approval is a horse of a different color. Meanwhile, US-Chinese relations continue to sour. The capital markets are narrowly mixed as investors await further developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific is consolidated after gaining for the past four sessions.

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FX Daily, October 16: Fickle Market Tempers Enthusiasm

Overview: Fading hopes that a Brexit agreement can be struck is seeing sterling trade broadly lower, while China's demand that US tariffs be rescinded in exchange for a commitment to buy $40-$50 bln of US agriculture goods over two years, makes the handshake agreement less secure. At the same time, Hong Kong is becoming another front in the US-Sino confrontation.

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FX Daily, October 15: Non-Disruptive Brexit Hopes Remain Elevated

Overview: Ideas that a Brexit deal may be close is helping to firm sterling, while soft Chinese PPI offset the spike in food prices to show the weakness of the world's second-largest economy. Minutes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this month kept a door open to a rate cut before the end of the year.  Japan returned from holiday, and the Nikkei gapped higher, and its nearly 1.9% advance led the MSCI Asia Pacific Index...

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FX Daily, October 14: Optimism Took the Weekend Off

Overview: Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday today. While the US bond market is closed, equities maintain their regular hours today. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by 1% of more gains in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The buying did not continue in Europe, and after a 2.3% rally before the weekend, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.75% lower in the European morning.

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FX Daily, October 11: Nothing Like Approaching the Edge to Focus the Minds

Overview: As the edge of the abyss is approached in three distinct areas, there is hope that victory can be snatched from the jaws of defeat. US-China trade talks continue today, and there is hope of a small deal that could lead to the US not hiking tariffs next week. A shift in the UK toward a free-trade agreement with the EU seems to have opened fertile ground in negotiations that could still avoid a no-deal Brexit.

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FX Daily, October 10: Setback for the Greenback

Conflicting headlines about US-China trade whipsawed the markets in Asia, but when things settled down, perhaps, like the partial deal that has been hinted, net-net little has changed. Asian equities were mixed, with the Nikkei, China's indices, and HK gaining, while most of the others slipped lower. The 0.9% gain in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to lift European stocks, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is near the week's lows.

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FX Daily, October 9: Hope is Trying to Supplant Pessimism Today

Overview: The 1.5% drop in the S&P 500 and the deterioration of US-China relations and the prospects of a no-deal Brexit failed did not carry over much into today's activity. Asia Pacific equities were mostly a little lower, though China and India bucked the regional trend, while Korea was closed for a national holiday. Taiwan led the losses amid a sell-off in semiconductor stocks.

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FX Daily, October 7: Markets Unsettled to Start the Week

Overview: The global capital markets are uneasy as the risks that have dominated investors' concerns--trade and Brexit--remain front and center today. Expectations are low that this week's talks between the US and China will lead to a breakthrough or will be sufficient to postpone further the next round of tariff increases set for next week. 

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FX Daily, October 4: The US Jobs Data to Close a Sobering Week

Overview: The recovery of US shares yesterday signaled today's fragile stability. Gains in Japan, Australia, and Taiwan blunted the losses elsewhere in the region, including a 1% slide in Hong Kong.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third week. China's markets have been closed since Monday and will re-open Monday and may play some catch-up.

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FX Daily, October 3: Shades of Q4 18?

Overview:  Disappointing economic data again drove US equities lower, which in turn carried into Asia Pacific activity. Losses were recorded throughout the region, with the notable exception of Hong Kong. The Nikkei and Australia's ASX were off by 2%. After its largest losing session of the year (-2.7%) yesterday, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 continues to trade heavily.

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FX Daily, October 2: Greenback Shows Resiliency, Stocks Don’t

Shockingly poor ISM data sent shivers through the market on Tuesday and hand the S&P 500 its biggest loss in five weeks and took the shine off the greenback. The S&P 500 reached a five-day high before reversing course and cast a pall over today's activity.  All the markets were lower in Asia Pacific, with China and India closed for holidays.

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FX Daily, October 1: Dollar Jumps to Start New Quarter

Overview: The US dollar is rising against nearly every currency today as global growth concerns deepen. Japan's Tankan Survey showed large manufacturers confidence is a six-year low. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut 25 bp as widely expected and kept the door open for more. The final EMU PMI ticked up from the flash, but it is still at a seven-year low.

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FX Daily, September 30: A Busy Week Begins Quietly

Overview: As the quarter ends, the capital markets are mixed. Equities in Asia Pacific were heavier, except in Hong Kong and Australia, while shares were mixed, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 little changed through the European morning. US shares are trading firmer. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are 2-3 basis points higher, though Australia's bond yield was up seven basis points.

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FX Daily, September 27: Markets Limp into the Weekend with the Euro Languishing at New Lows and Sterling under Pressure

Overview: Equities remain under pressures. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lower today, though Chinese and Australian shares were firmer. It is the second consecutive week the benchmark has fallen. European equities are firmer, but not enough to offset the losses earlier this week and are set to snap a five-week advance.

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FX Daily, September 26: Greenback Remains Firm

Overview: A compelling narrative for yesterday's disparate price action is lacking. A flight to safety, which is a leading interpretation, does not explain the weakness in the yen, gold, or US Treasuries. Month- and quarter-end portfolio and hedge adjustments may be at work, but the risk is that it is a black box: is difficult to verify and lends itself to misuse as a catch-all explanation.  Nevertheless, the rise in US equities yesterday helped...

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