Tag Archive: #USD

FX Daily, December 18: Stock Rout Deepens, Casts Shadow over Holiday Spirit

2018-12-18

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2018-12-18

Overview: The 2% slide in the S&P 500 to new lows for the year yesterday hit Asian and European equities today. Bond yields are lower, and the dollar is softer against most major currencies. The dramatic equity losses and some disappointing data sparked doubts about the ability of the Fed to raise rates tomorrow at the conclusion of its last meeting of the year.

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FX Weekly Preview: FOMC Dominates Week Ahead Calendar

2018-12-17

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2018-12-17

The last FOMC meeting of 2018 is at hand. After hiking rates three times in 2017, the Fed signaled that four hikes were likely this year and with a widely expected move on December 20, it would have fully delivered, though many steps along the way, skeptical investors had to be led by the nose, as it were, to minimize the element of surprise.

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FX Daily, December 14: Week Closing on a Disappointing Note

2018-12-14

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2018-12-14

Overview:  A string of disappointing economic is spurring risk-off sentiment today.  Global shares prices are being punished and core bonds are being snapped up.  The US dollar is trading higher against most major and emerging market currencies.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was flat on the week coming into today's session.

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FX Daily, December 13: May Survives but its Draghi’s Day

2018-12-13

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2018-12-13

Overview: There is a sense of optimism among investors today that may be tested as the session progresses. News that China may reconsider its "Made in China 2025" initiative as an apparent concession to the US while reports suggest it has bought 1.5-2.0 mln tons of soy is easing trade tension fears. 

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FX Daily, December 12: Markets Calm on May Day

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

The US S&P 500 failed to sustain the early upside momentum, but global equities are moving higher today, and there is some optimism on the trade front. Emerging market equities and currencies are also doing well today.

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FX Daily, December 11: Fragile Calm Threatens to Break Out

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

Indications that US and Chinese trade talks are proceeding, coupled with a dramatic reversal in the S&P 500 yesterday is helping stabilize the capital markets today. Asian equities were mixed, but the Greater China (China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan markets) alongside India and Australia posted modest gains.

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FX Daily, December 10: Lack of Closure Weighs on Sentiment

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

Investors angst over trade tensions and Brexit continue remains elevated, and poor Chinese and Japanese economic news played on global growth fears. Equities continue to slog lower. Bond yields are little changed, and the dollar is lower against most of the major currencies.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead: Don’t Skip Steps on Escalation Ladders

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

The drop in US yields and disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment and the dollar last week. Even weakness in equities, which had seemed to lend the greenback support, failed to do so at the end of last week. With the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) below zero, employment at 50-year lows, and some fiscal stimulus still in the pipeline, the doom and gloom cant of a recession next year seems misplaced.

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FX Daily, December 07: A Couple More Events before Seeing the End of Difficult Week for Investors

2018-12-07

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2018-12-07

Overview: Global equities have stabilized after US equities recovered yesterday, with the NASDAQ 100 staging its biggest reversal in eight months and the S&P500 recouped almost three percent to close 0.15% lower. Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher. Hong Kong shares, including the mainland shares that trade there, were the notable exception.

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The Dollar and Its Rivals

2018-12-05

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2018-12-05

I was in graduate school, studying American foreign policy when I stumbled on Riccardo Parboni's "The Dollar and Its Rivals." This thin volume showed how the foreign exchange market was the arena in which capitalist rivalries were expressed. More than any single book, it set me on a more than 30-year path.

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FX Daily, December 04: Stock Rally Arrested, but Bond and Oil Advance Continues, leaving Dollar in a Lurch

2018-12-04

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2018-12-04

Overview: Equity markets are unable to build on yesterday's advance, but bonds and oil are extending gains. The dollar remains on the defensive and is off again all the major currencies. The lack of a joint statement over the weekend by the US and China and seemingly different interpretations of what was agreed leaves investors in a lurch.

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Great Graphic: The Dollar Index Climbs a Wall of Worry

2018-12-04

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2018-12-04

To be sure, the Dollar Index is not the dollar. It is not even a trade-weighted measure of the dollar. Two of America's largest trading partners, China and Mexico, are not represented. It is heavily weighted to the euro and currencies that move in its orbit, like the Swiss franc Swedish krona, and arguably the British pound.

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FX Daily, December 03: G20 Fan Animal Spirits

2018-12-03

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2018-12-03

The US and China kept their trade guns cocked at each other but offered the last opportunity for a negotiated settlement before escalation. What is billed as a 90-day freeze on tariff increases is really only 60 days beyond January 1 when Trump had threatened to increase the 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods to 25%.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dramatic Week Ends with Whimper?

2018-12-03

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2018-12-03

There is an eerie calm in the capital markets today as the G20 meeting gets underway. There is much uncertainty, and the event calendar is chock full next week, with the Brexit debate getting underway in the UK Parliament, the CDU picks a new leader to replace Merkel, possible partial US government closure, Powell's testimony before Congress, OPEC+ meeting, and US employment data.

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FX Daily, November 29: Reluctant to Extend Dollar Losses

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

Overview: The biggest US equity advance since Q1 has helped lift global markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth session, and nearly all the bourses in the region rallied with the notable exception of China and Hong Kong. Almost all the sectors in Europe are rallying but energy and real estate. US oil inventories rose three times more than expected and Putin expressed little support for fresh output cuts.

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FX Daily, November 28: Powell Awaited

2018-11-28

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2018-11-28

Overview:  Global capital markets are relatively calm as investors gird for drama.  The Bank of England reports its assessment of the impact of Brexit and the stress tests a little before Fed Chair Powell speaks at midday in NY.  The G20 meeting begins Friday, and several bilateral meetings are taking the spotlight from the larger gathering. 

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FX Daily, November 27: Market Shrugs Off Latest US Tariff Provocation

2018-11-27

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2018-11-27

The global capital markets have taken the US latest tariff threats in stride.  Most of the Asian equity markets advanced, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India, and Australia. China and Hong Kong were exceptions with marginal losses. European markets are trying to extend their recovery for a third session, but the industry performance is mixed with energy and materials lower, and utilities, consumer staples, and information technology/communication...

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Near-term Outlook

2018-11-27

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2018-11-27

There are three key scheduled events between now and the end of the year.  In chronological order, this weekend G20 meeting is first.  It will shape expectations for trade tensions between the US and China, with extensive secondary impact. Saudi Arabia and Russia's meeting may help shape expectations for the price of oil, which has collapsed here in Q4 18.

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FX Daily, November 23: Friday

2018-11-23

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2018-11-23

The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies. Japanese and Indian markets were closed for holidays and a weaker than expected flash EMU PMI helped keep the euro pinned near this week's lows. Although the EU seemed to thrown UK's embattled May a lifeline with some compromise wording in a draft declaration, the challenge remains the same--Parliament's approval.

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Cool Video: CNBC Squawk Box

2018-11-22

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2018-11-22

I was part of the "Trading Block" on CNBC earlier today. The sharp fall in stocks and oil would have led many, like Joe, to anticipate dollar weakness. Instead, the dollar rallied. Perhaps, I suggested, the dollar was acting like a safe haven. Bill yields are high enough to make cash a reasonable alternative to park one's savings.

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