Tag Archive: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. A stronger than expected number should be taken as positive for the EUR and a lower than expected number as negative to the EUR.

The Direction Is (Globally) Clear

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

US Composite PMI and GDP, Jul 2012 - Nov 2018
It is definitely one period that they got wrong. Still, IHS Markit’s Composite PMI for the US economy has been one of the better forward-looking indicators around. Tying to real GDP, this blend of manufacturing and services sentiment has predicted the general economic trend in the United States pretty closely. The latter half of 2015 was the big exception.

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Global PMI’s Hang In There And That’s The Bad News

2018-08-25

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2018-08-25

Dollar Cycles General, June 2018
At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29, it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

2018-08-17

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2018-08-17

US Real GDP, Q1 2013 - Q1 2018
The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 ’09, Q4 ’11, Q2 & Q3 ’14). But looking at the GDP change year over year shows a little different picture (2.8%).

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The Top of GDP

2018-07-26

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2018-07-26

US GDP and PMI, Feb 2011 - Jul 2018
In 1999, real GDP growth in the United States was 4.69% (Q4 over Q4). In 1998, it was 4.9989%. These were annual not quarterly rates, meaning that for two years straight GDP expanded by better than 4.5%. Individual quarters within those years obviously varied, but at the end of the day the economy was clearly booming.

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The Currency of PMI’s

2018-05-27

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2018-05-27

US Markit PMI and GDP, Jul 2012 - May 2018
Markit Economics released the flash results from several of its key surveys. Included is manufacturing in Japan (lower), as well as composites (manufacturing plus services) for the United States and Europe. Within the EU, Markit offers details for France and Germany.

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FX Daily, April 27: Dollar Puts Finishing Touches on Best Week Since November 2016

2018-04-27

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2018-04-27

The US dollar's recent gains have been extended, and it is having one of its best weeks since November 2016. The Dollar Index is up 1.7% for the week, as US session is about to start. Though it took this week's gains to change market's narrative, the fact of the matter, as we have pointed out is that April is the third consecutive month in which the Dollar Index fell in only one week. That translates into rising 10 of the past 13 weeks.

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FX Daily, March 28: Three Developments Shaping Month-End

2018-03-28

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2018-03-28

Today may be the last day of full liquidity until next Tuesday, after the Easter holidays. We identify three developments that are characterizing the end of the month, quarter, and for some countries and companies, the fiscal year. Equity market sell-off, bond market rally, and the continued rise in LIBOR.

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Switzerland: So far so good

2018-03-02

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2018-03-02

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO)’s quarterly estimates, Swiss real GDP rose by 0.6% q-o-q in Q4 (2.4% q-o-q annualised; 1.9% y-o-y), above consensus expectations (0.5%). The Swiss economy expanded by 1.0% in 2017 overall, in line with our own forecast. This comes after GDP growth of 1.4% in 2016 and 1.2% in 2015.

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FX Daily, February 28: It Takes Powell to Convince the Market that Yellen was Right

2018-02-28

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2018-02-28

Many market participants think they heard Fed Chair Powell give a fairly strong signal that he favored a more aggressive course. The implied yield on the December Eurodollar futures rose five basis points to 1.535%. The December Fed funds futures contract rose three basis points.

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FX Daily, January 26: Trump-Inspired Dollar Short Squeeze Fades Quickly

2018-01-26

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2018-01-26

It was dramatic. Following the BOJ and ECB's rather mild rebuke of dollar's depreciation, US President Trump cautioned that his Treasury Secretary comments were taken out of context, and in ant event, he, the President ultimately favored a strong dollar. The dollar, which had continued fall after Draghi's post-ECB meeting comments, shot higher in the US afternoon in response to Trump's comments.

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The Dismal Boom

2018-01-25

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2018-01-25

Friedman's Plucking Model of Trend-Cycle
There is a fundamental assumption behind any purchasing manager index, or PMI. These are often but not always normalized to the number 50. That’s done simply for comparison purposes and the ease of understanding in the general public. That level at least in the literature and in theory is supposed to easily and clearly define the difference between growth and contraction.

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Japan: It isn’t What the Media Tell You

2017-12-01

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2017-12-01

Anime
For the past few decades, Japan has been known for its stagnant economy, falling stock market, and most importantly its terrible demographics. For almost three decades, Japan’s GDP growth has mostly been less than 2%, has been negative for several of these years, and has often hovered close to zero. The net result is that its GDP is almost at the same level as 25 years ago.

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FX Daily, November 29: Sterling Charges Ahead on Brexit Hopes

2017-11-29

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2017-11-29

Prospects of a deal with the EU has sent sterling to its best level in two months against the dollar. It reached $1.3430 in early European turnover. It had sunk to nearly $1.3220 yesterday as European markets were closing, which was a four-day low. It is the strongest of the major currencies today, gaining about 0.4%. With today's gains has met our retracement target near $1.3415. The momentum appears to give it potential toward $1.3500 in the...

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Strong Growth? Q3 GDP Only Shows How Weak 2017 Has Been

2017-11-03

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2017-11-03

US Gross Domestic Product, April 2011 - March 2017
Baseball Hall of Famer Frank Robinson also had a long career as a manager after his playing days were done. He once said in that latter capacity that you have to have a short memory as a closer. Simple wisdom where it’s true, all that matters for that style of pitching is the very next out. You can forget about what just happened so as to give your full energy and concentration to the batter at the plate.

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An Unexpected (And Rotten) Branch of the Maestro’s Legacy

2017-10-29

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2017-10-29

China Fixed Asset Investment, March 1998 - Sep 2017
The most significant part of China’s 19th Party Congress ended in the usual anticlimactic fashion. These events are for show, not debate. Like any good trial lawyer will tell you, you never ask a question in court that you don’t already know the answer to. For China’s Communists, that meant nominating Xi Jinping’s name to be written into the Communist constitution with the votes already tallied.

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Political Economics

2017-10-28

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2017-10-28

US Real Gross Domestic Product, Jan 1993 - 2017
Who President Trump ultimately picks as the next Federal Reserve Chairman doesn’t really matter. Unless he goes really far afield to someone totally unexpected, whoever that person will be will be largely more of the same. It won’t be a categorical change, a different philosophical direction that is badly needed. Still, politically, it does matter to some significant degree. It’s just that the political division isn’t the usual R vs. D, left vs....

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FX Daily, October 27: Greenback Finishing Week on Firm Note

2017-10-27

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2017-10-27

This has been a good week for the US dollar. The Dollar Index's 1.25% gain this week is the largest of the year. The driver is two-fold: positive developments in the US and negative developments abroad. The positive developments in the US include growing acceptance that the Fed will raise rates in December and that there will be more rate hikes next year. The Fed says three.

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Housing Isn’t Just About Real Estate

2017-10-27

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2017-10-27

US Existing Home Sales, Jan 2011 - Jul 2017
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today that sales of existing homes (resales) were up slightly in September 2017 on a monthly basis. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million last month, that was practically unchanged from the 5.35 million estimate for August that was the lowest in a year.

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Key Charts: Gold is Cheap and US Recession May Be Closer Than Think

2017-10-23

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2017-10-23

Average Annual Gold Price in USD, 1971 - 2017
Every year, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J Valek of investment and asset management company Incrementum put together the report In Gold We Trust – 160-plus pages of charts and thoughts, mostly gold-related, on the state of the world’s finances. There’s so much to look at and consider. It’s a sort of digital equivalent of a coffee-table book.

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Which Rotten Fruit Falls First?

2017-10-23

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2017-10-23

US Gross Domestic Product, 1940 - 2017
I predict the current investigations will widen and take a variety of twists and turns that surprise all those anticipating a tidy, narrowly focused denouement. The theme this week is The Rot Within. To those of us who understand the entire status quo is rotten and corrupt to its core, the confidence of each ideological camp that their side will emerge unscathed by investigation is a source of amusement.

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