Tag Archive: U.S. Dollar Index

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Draghi Moves Markets

2017-07-03

In my last update two weeks ago I commented on the continued weakness in the economic data. The economic surprises were overwhelmingly negative and our market based indicators confirmed that weakness. This week the surprises are not in the economic data but in the indicators. And surprising as well is the source of the outbreak of optimism in the bond market and the yield curve.

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FX Weekly Review, June 26 – July 01: Normalization Ideas Weigh on Greenback

2017-07-03

by George Dorgan

2017-07-03

A virus has spread across the markets as the first half drew to a close. Many investors have become giddy. The low vol environment was punctuated by ideas that peak in monetary accommodation is past and that the gradual process of normalization is beginning.

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What Is the Fundamental Gold Price? Precious Metals Supply and Demand [extended version]

2017-06-27

by Keith Weiner

2017-06-27

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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FX Weekly Review, June 19 – June 24: Stronger Franc with Fading Euro Enthusiam

2017-06-25

by George Dorgan

2017-06-25

Over the last month, the Swiss franc outpaced both EUR and USD. But the change is only little, the EUR fell by 0.60% and the dollar by 0.40%. The main reason for the stronger CHF is the fading enthusiasm after Macron's victory in the French elections and hence a weaker euro. Consequently SNB interventions are rising again.

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Global Asset Allocation Update:

2017-06-24

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-06-24

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Has The Fed Heard Of Amazon?

2017-06-19

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-06-19

The economic surprises keep piling up on the negative side of the ledger as the Fed persists in tightening policy or at least pretending that they are. If a rate changes in the wilderness can the market hear it? Outside of the stock market one would be hard pressed to find evidence of the effectiveness of all the Fed’s extraordinary policies of the last decade.

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FX Weekly Review, June 12 – June 17: Greenback Still Trying To Turn

2017-06-19

by George Dorgan

2017-06-19

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR Rarely in the foreign exchange market is there a V-shaped extreme. Most of the time, the high or low is a process that is carved over time. Although the explanation of the dollar’s weakness here in H1 vary, we continue to believe that the longer-term cyclical rally, the third since … Continue reading »

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FX Weekly Review, June 05 – June 10: Sterling Leads Dollar Recovery

2017-06-11

by George Dorgan

2017-06-11

The US Dollar has lost 4% against the franc since the beginning of May, while the euro is down only 1%. Most important events in this week were the ECB meeting and the UK elections. The inability of the Tory Party to secure a parliamentary majority spurred a sharp decline in sterling.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The Return of Economic Ennui

2017-06-07

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-06-07

The economic reports released since the last of these updates was generally not all that bad but the reports considered more important were disappointing. And it should be noted that economic reports lately have generally been worse than expected which, if you believe the market to be fairly efficient, is what really matters.

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FX Weekly Review, May 29 – June 03: Dollar Dogged by Disappointing Data

2017-06-04

by George Dorgan

2017-06-04

While the Euro traded in the range between 1.08 and 1.09, the dollar declined by nearly 3%. The technical indicators warn that the US dollar is stretched, but the combination of disappointing auto sales and jobs report may deny it the interest rate support needed to facilitate a resumption of the bull market.

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FX Weekly Review, May 22 – 27: Is the Dollar Going To Turn?

2017-05-29

by George Dorgan

2017-05-29

The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-05-27

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-05-27

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are, however, changes within the asset classes. We are reducing the equity allocation and raising the allocation to REITs.

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Four Numbers to Watch in FX

2017-05-24

by Marc Chandler

2017-05-24

The dollar's downside momentum faded today, but it has not shown that it has legs. Watch 96.45 in the DXY and $1.3055 in sterling. The US 2-year note yield is low, given expectations for overnight money. The US premium needs to widen.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-05-23

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-05-23

The economic data releases since the last update were generally upbeat but markets are forward looking and the future apparently isn’t to their liking. Of course, it is hard to tell sometimes whether bonds, the dollar and stocks are responding to the real economy or the one people hope Donald Trump can deliver when he isn’t busy contradicting his communications staff.

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FX Weekly Review, May 15-20: Swiss Franc recovering against EUR

2017-05-21

by George Dorgan

2017-05-21

FX Weekly Review, May 08-13: Euro rises far above 1.09 CHF, for how long?

2017-05-13

by George Dorgan

2017-05-13

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, May 13

The euro rose up to 1.0980. How long this momentum will last is still the question, given that it is driven by this political event and sustained by SNB interventions.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-05-09

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-05-09

The economic reports since the last economic update were generally less than expected and disappointing. The weak growth of the last few years had been supported by autos and housing while energy has been a wildcard. When oil prices fell, starting in mid-2014 and bottoming in early 2016, economic growth suffered as the shale industry retrenched.

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FX Weekly Review, May 01 – 06: Seasonal Patterns and Yen Crosses

2017-05-07

by George Dorgan

2017-05-07

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M

The Swiss Franc index gained 1.5% in the last month, the biggest part of it is from the last week. The trade-weighted indices the Fed tracks are updated monthly. The Bank of England calculates the effective exchange rate on a daily basis. It has not fallen since April 24.

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FX Weekly Review, April 24 – 29: Dollar Remains the Fulcrum

2017-05-01

by George Dorgan

2017-05-01

Often the US dollar, as the numeraire, seems to be the main actor in the foreign exchange market. Other times, the dollar appears to be at the fulcrum between European currencies on one hand, and the dollar-bloc currencies on the other hand. Another way expressing this is whether there is a dollar-move underway or is it really more about the crosses.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-04-25

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-04-25

It wasn’t a very good two weeks for economic data with the majority of reports disappointing. Most notable I think is that the so called “soft data” is starting to reflect reality rather than some fantasy land where President Trump enacts his entire agenda in the first 100 days of being in office. Politics is about the art of the possible and that is proving a short list for now.

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