Tag Archive: newslettersent

London House Prices Are Falling – Time to Buckle Up

2017-10-11

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2017-10-11

House
London house prices fall in September: first time in eight years. High-end London property fell by 3.2% in year. House sales down by over a very large one-third. Global Real Estate Bubble Index – see table. Brexit, rising inflation and political uncertainty causing many buyers to back away from market. U.K. housing stock worth record £6.8 trillion, almost 1.5 times value of LSE and more than the value of all the gold in world.

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The Damage Started Months Before Harvey And Irma

2017-10-11

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2017-10-11

US Imports, Jan 1989 - 2017
Ahead of tomorrow’s payroll report the narrative is being set that it will be weak because of Harvey and Irma. Historically, major storms have had a negative effect on the labor market. Just as auto sales were up sharply in September very likely because of the hurricane(s) and could remain that way for several months, payrolls could be weak for the same reasons and the same timeframe.

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Donald Trump: Warmonger-in-Chief

2017-10-11

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2017-10-11

Armchair General
If a world conflagration, God forbid, should break out during the Trump Administration, its genesis will not be too hard to discover: the thin-skinned, immature, shallow, doofus who currently resides in the Oval Office! This past week, the Donald has continued his bellicose talk with both veiled and explicit threats against purported American adversaries throughout the world.

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Switzerland Unemployment in September 2017: Remained at 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted changed at 3.2 percent to 3.1 percent

2017-10-10

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2017-10-10

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a. September 2017
Registered unemployment in September 2017 - According to the SECO surveys, 133,169 unemployed persons were registered at the regional employment services centers (RAV) at the end of September 2017, 2,409 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by 9'506 persons (-6.7%).

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Why Small States Are Better

2017-10-10

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2017-10-10

Andreas Marquart and Philipp Bagus (see their mises.org author pages here and here) were recently interviewed about their new book by the Austrian Economics Center. Unfortunately for English-language readers, the book is only available in German. Nevertheless, the interview offers some valuable insights.

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Stocks Up and Yields Down – Precious Metals Supply & Demand

2017-10-10

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2017-10-10

S&P 500 Index vs Corporate Debt
Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 09/10/2017 – EURJPY, EURAUD, USDCHF, GOLD

2017-10-10

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2017-10-10

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 10
EURJPY, EURAUD, USDCHF, GOLD features

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Be Careful What You Wish For: Inflation Is Much Higher Than Advertised

2017-10-10

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2017-10-10

US Consumer Price Index
What the Federal Reserve is actually whining about is not low inflation--it's that high inflation isn't pushing wages higher like it's supposed to. It's not exactly a secret that real-world inflation is a lot higher than the official rates--the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures PCE).

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement

2017-10-09

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2017-10-09

Over the past few weeks, the markets have come to accept the likelihood of a December Fed hike. US interest rates have adjusted. The pricing of December Fed funds futures contract is consistent with around an 80% chance of a hike. The two-year yield is trading at the upper end of what is expected to be the Fed funds target range at the end of the year, after slipping below the current range a month ago. The Dollar Index formed a bottoming pattern.

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Airbnb has ‘impact’ on housing market

2017-10-09

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2017-10-09

Online accommodation platforms such as Airbnb have negative effects on the Swiss housing market and lead to fewer homes available for tenants and higher rental prices, a study has revealed.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2017-10-09

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2017-10-09

EM FX ended the week under pressure, as US data points to a rate hike in December and perhaps more in 2018. FOMC minutes this Wednesday will be closely studied for clues. US retail sales and CPI data Friday will also be important. We believe the most vulnerable currencies in this environment are ZAR and TRY, but one could also add MXN and perhaps RUB to that mix too.

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Perth Mint Gold Coins Sales Double In September

2017-10-09

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2017-10-09

Gold Coin Sales, Aug 2012 - Jul 2017
Perth Mint gold coins see sales double on month in September. Perth Mint silver bullion coin sales surge 78% in September. Perth Mint sold 46,415 ounces of gold in September. Nearly six times more gold coins sold at Perth Mint than U.S. Mint in September. Sales surge at Perth Mint from low base; could indicate trend change and higher demand in coming months

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Auto Sales Up Last Month, But Why?

2017-10-09

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2017-10-09

US Vehicle Sales, Jan 2014 - Jul 2017
Auto sales rebounded sharply in September, with most major car manufacturers reporting better numbers. Sales at Ford were up 8.9% last month from September 2016; +11.9% at GM; Toyota +14.9%; Nissan +9.5%; Honda +6.8%. The only negatives were reported by FCA (-9.7%) and Mercedes (-1.7%).

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Federal Reserve President Kashkari’s Masterful Distractions

2017-10-09

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2017-10-09

Axe
The True Believer.How is it that seemingly intelligent people, of apparent sound mind and rational thought, can stray so far off the beam? How come there are certain professions that reward their practitioners for their failures? The central banking and monetary policy vocation rings the bell on both accounts. Today we offer a brief case study in this regard.

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Talk of cutting Swiss pensions paid to foreign residents

2017-10-08

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2017-10-08

Chair
According to Le Matin, Jean-Luc Addor, a parliamentarian and member of the Swiss People’s Party (UDC/SVP), wants to know what savings could be made if pensions paid to those abroad were adjusted for living costs in those countries. According to the newspaper, after the rejection of the vote to reform Swiss pensions, Addor said that the rejected reform was aimed at guaranteeing the financing of the pension system over the coming years, as well as...

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Gold Investment In Germany Surges – Now World’s Largest Gold Buyers

2017-10-08

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2017-10-08

Germany Gold Investment, 2000 - 2016
Gold investment in Germany surged in past 10 years. Germans are largest gold buyers in world: WGC research. Gold investment in Germany surges to €6.8B in 2016. Gold demand per person is highest in world – double Chinese, UK and U.S. demand. Gold one of the most popular investment for retail investors especially those with high incomes. 59% of respondents agreed with the statement that gold will never lose its value in the long-term. 48% agreed with...

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Cool Video: Double Feature Courtesy of Bloomberg

2017-10-08

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2017-10-08

Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua gave me a most appreciated opportunity to present my dollar views on Bloomberg TV earlier today. They also let me opine about current events, like Catalonia's push for independence and May's troubled speech at the Tory Party Conference. Bloomberg made two clips of the discussion available. The first is about the dollar's outlook broadly. I suggest a combination of technical and fundamental factors point to a strong Q4...

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Incomes Are What Matters, So Bad Month, Bad Year, Bad Decade

2017-10-08

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2017-10-08

US Real Personal Income, Dec 2013 - Aug 2017
Sometimes economics can be complicated, such as why the labor market has slowed in such lingering fashion since early 2015. Sometimes economics can be easy, such as why there is so much less to the economy this year than thought. The easy part relates to the hard part. The labor market slowed and so did national income. Though so much of official focus is on debt supplementation, it’s always, always about income.

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What If the Tax Donkeys Rebel?

2017-10-08

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2017-10-08

Family Income, 1989 - 2016
I would hazard a guess that an increasing number of tax donkeys are considering dropping out as a means of increasing their happiness and satisfaction with life. Since federal income taxes are in the spotlight, let's ask a question that rarely (if ever) makes it into the public discussion: what if the tax donkeys who pay most of the tax rebel? There are several likely reasons why this question rarely arises.

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