Tag Archive: newslettersent

Swiss Trade Balance January 2017: Pharma maintains the Exports in the black figures

After adjusting for working days, exports increased by 5.3% (real: + 2.3%) in January 2017, boosted by chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Imports, on the other hand, fell by 1.2% (real: -6.8%). The trade balance loops on a record monthly surplus of 4.7...

FX Daily, February 21: Dollar Bounces Back

Some profit-taking in the middle of last week pushed the dollar lower and gave rise in some quarters that the run was over. However, the greenback has come back the bid. It is gaining against all the major currencies today and most of the emerging...

Russia Gold Buying Returns – Buys One Million Ounces In January

Russia Gold Buying Returns – Adds Substantial One Million Ounces To Reserves In January. Russia gold buying returned in January with the Russian central bank buying a very large 1 million ounces or 37 metric tonnes of gold bullion. The increase in the...

Dollar Index: The Chart Everyone is Talking About

Many are discussing a possible head-and-shoulders pattern in the Dollar Index. We are skeptical as other technical signals do not confirm. We recognize scope for disappointment over the border tax and the next batch of employment data, but European...

Great Graphic: US and Japan Five-Year Credit Default Swaps

For the first time since the financial crisis, the 5-year CDS on JGBs is dipping below the 5-year US CDS. It appears to be more a function of a decline in Japan's CDS than a rise in the US CDS. We are reluctant to read too much into the small price...

FX Daily, February 20: Marking Time on Monday

US markets are closed for the Presidents' Day holiday, but it hasn't prevented its pre-weekend gains giving a bullish tone to global equities. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ recovered from early weakness to close at new record levels before the weekend. Global...

Greenspan Says Gold “Ultimate Insurance Policy” as has “Grave Concerns About Euro”

“The eurozone isn’t working …” warns Greenspan, “I view gold as the primary global currency” said Greenspan, “Significant increases in inflation will ultimately increase the price of gold”, “Investment in gold now is insurance…”

No Acceleration In Industry, Either

Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for...

United States Economic Freedom Tumbles To Historic Low

After eight years of the regulation-happy Obama administration, the United States has undergone a huge slide into the 17th most economically free country in the world, according to the Heritage Foundation’s 2017 Index of Economic Freedom.

Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Once again a new SNB intervention record

Once again a massive SNB intervention and a post Trump election record: 4.5 billion CHF at a EUR rate of 1.0648.

Weekly Speculative Position: Rising EUR shorts and falling CHF shorts point to weaker EUR/CHF

Speculators increased their EUR net short position against the dollar, but lowered their CHF net shorts (vs. USD). This tendency confirms our view that EUR/CHF will move towards parity.

FX Weekly Preview: Number One Rule of the Game is Stay in the Game

Light economic calendar in the week ahead, but anticipation of US tax reform may underpin dollar and equities. European politics are in flux (France, Italy, Greece) and this may see spreads widen over Germany. Russia's outlook was upgraded by Moody's...

Weekly SNB Intervention Update: Sight Deposits and Speculative Position

Once again a massive SNB intervention and a post Trump election record: 4.5 billion CHF at a EUR rate of 1.0648.

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX ended last week on a soft note, as some risk off sentiment crept back into the markets. The dollar gained broadly on Friday despite lower US rates as bonds rallied, the yen gained and equities sold off. Markit PMI for February Tuesday and FOMC...

Schuld an der Steuerklatsche sind die honorigen Ökonomen

Sieben Bundesräte, das Parlament, alle Finanzdirektoren und alle Wirtschaftsverbände waren für die Steuerreform. Millionen wurden in den Abstimmungskampf investiert. Trotzdem ging die geplante Steuerreform III mit rund 60 Prozent bachab. Ein klareres...

Their Gap Is Closed, Ours Still Needs To Be

There are actually two parts to examining the orthodox treatment of the output gap. The first is the review, looking backward to trace how we got to this state. The second is looking forward trying to figure what it means to be here. One final rearward...

FX Weekly Review, February 13 – 18: Why still long the dollar?

Arguments for being long the dollar: FX investors because of the difference in monetary policy (e.g. higher US rates), Bond investors long US Bonds because higher bond yields, On the other side, European and Swiss equities are not so much overvalued...

If It Didn’t Abandon The Gold Standard, U.S. Empire Would Have Collapsed…

The U.S. will never go back on a gold standard. The notion that a U.S. Dollar backed by gold would solve our financial problems is pure folly. Why? Because, if the U.S. Empire didn’t abandon the gold standard in 1971, it would have collapsed decades...

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2017: +0.4 percent

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in January 2017 by 0.4% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.4 points (base December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products, scrap and watches. Compared with...

The Consensus Narrative does not Appreciate the Resilience of the System

The system of checks and balances is working. Populism-nationalism is not sweeping across the world. Even in US and UK, populist agenda was appropriated by the main-center right party. The attack on the body politics is activating the immune system in...