Tag Archive: newslettersent

Swiss Trade Balance 3rd Quarter 2017: Foreign Trade at a High Level

With adjusted working days, exports grew by 2.5% and imports by 7.4% in the third quarter of 2017. Trade was thus consolidated at a high level. The balance of the trade balance contracted from 10.3 to 8.5 billion francs.

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FX Daily, October 19: Kiwi Drop and Sterling Losses Punctuate Subdued FX Market

The 30th anniversary of the 1987 equity market crash the major US benchmarks at record highs. The drop in the market was at least partly a function of the lack of capacity, sufficient instruments, and regulatory regime. Each of these factors has been addressed to some extent. Circuit breakers have been introduced, and have evolved. The financial capacity has grown immensely.

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Suspected Swiss tax spy trial underway in Germany

The trial in Frankfurt of a Swiss private investigator accused of spying on the tax authorities in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia is underway, but already temporarily suspended. The 54-year-old allegedly acted on behalf of the Swiss intelligence service trying to uncover a series of thefts of CDs with data on suspected tax dodgers who held money in Swiss banks, according to German prosecutors.

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Silver Bullion Prices Set to Soar

Gold prices have far outpaced gains in silver so far this year, but silver will emerge as the winner for the second year in a row. With a per-ounce price of $17.41 for silver futures as of Friday, analysts say the white metal is poised for a big climb, particularly as the gold-to-silver ratio stands well above historical averages.

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Great Graphic: The Euro’s Complicated Top

Euro looks like it is carving out a top. The importance also lies in identifying levels that the bearish view may be wrong. Widening rate differentials, a likely later peak in divergence than previously anticipated, and one-sided market positioning lend support to the bearish view.

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Global Inflation Continues To Underwhelm

Chinese producer prices accelerated in September 2017, while consumer price increases slowed. The National Bureau of Statistics reported this weekend that China’s PPI was up 6.9% year-over-year, a quicker pace than the 6.3% estimated for August and a 5.5% rate in July. Earlier in the year producer prices were driven mostly by 2016’s oil rebound, along with those in the rest of the global economy, but in recent months there has been more influence...

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10 Franc Note: Banknote App Updated

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is releasing an updated version of ‘Swiss Banknotes’, an app for mobile devices designed to help the public familiarise themselves with the new banknotes.The popular app, which has been downloaded over 70,000 times, now also showcases the new 10-franc note. It can be downloaded free of charge from the Apple (itunes.apple.com) and Google Play (play.google.com) app stores.

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Precious Metals Supply and Demand

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Central Bank Chiefs and Currencies

Market opinion on the next Fed chief is very fluid. BOE Governor Carney sticks to view, but short-sterling curve flattens. New Bank of Italy Governor sought. A second term for Kuroda may be more likely after this weekend election.

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Brexit UK Vulnerable As Gold Bar Exports Distort UK Trade Figures

Brexit UK vulnerable as gold bar exports distort UK trade figures. Britain’s gold exports worth more than any other physical export. Gold accounted for more than one in ten pounds of UK exports in July 2017. UK’s stock of wealth has collapsed from a surplus of £469bn to a net deficit of £22bn – ONS error. Brexiteers argue majority of trade is outside EU, this is due to large London gold exports. Single gold bar (London Good Delivery) is, at today’s...

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China Exports/Imports: Enforcing A Global Speed Limit

Chinese imports rose 18.7% in September 2017 year-over-year. That’s up from 13.5% growth in August. While near-20% expansion sounds good if not exhilarating, it isn’t materially different from 13.5% or 8% for that matter. In addition, Chinese trade statistics tend to vary month to month.

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The Fading Scent of the American Dream

The theme this week is The Rot Within. It's been 10 years since I devoted a week to the theme of The Rot Within (September 17, 2007). Back in 2007, I listed 16 systemic sources of rot in our society, politics and economy; none have been fixed. Instead, the gaping holes have been filled with Play-Do and hastily painted to create the illusion of shiny solidity.

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NAFTA Worries Take Toll, Yellen’s Best Guess Supports Greenback

Risk that NAFTA collapses weighs on CAD and MXN. Yen is slightly firmer despite US yields edging higher and weekend polls suggesting LDP could nearly secure a 2/3 majority of its own. The sterling is consolidating after sharp moves at the end of last week.

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Taleb Explains How He Made Millions On Black Monday As Others Crashed

Former trader and author of best-selling book “The Black Swan” sat down for an interview with Bloomberg News to mark the upcoming thirtieth anniversary of the stock-market crash that occurred on Oct. 19, 1987 – otherwise known as Black Monday.

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Credit Suisse targeted for break-up by activist hedge fund

A Swiss hedge fund is poised to launch an activist campaign to break up Credit Suisse, tapping into investor impatience with the progress of the bank’s turnround under chief executive Tidjane Thiam. RBR Capital Advisors, supported by Gaël de Boissard, a former Credit Suisse investment bank co-head, is set to unveil the plan later this week at the JPMorgan Robin Hood investor conference in New York, according to people briefed on it.

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Neck and Neck: Russian and Chinese Official Gold Reserves

Official gold reserve updates from the Russian and Chinese central banks are probably one of the more closely watched metrics in the gold world. After the US, Germany, Italy and France, the sovereign gold holdings of China and Russia are the world’s 5th and 6th largest. And with the gold reserves ‘official figures’ of the US, Germany, Italy and France being essentially static, the only numbers worth watching are those of China and Russia.

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About Those “Hedonic Adjustments” to Inflation: Ignoring the Systemic Decline in Quality, Utility, Durability and Service

The quality, durability, utility and enjoyment-of-use of our products and services has been plummeting for years. One of the more mysterious aspects of the official inflation rate is the hedonic quality adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics makes to the components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The basic idea is that when innovations improve the utility (and pleasure derived from) a product, the price is adjusted to reflect this...

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US Retail Sales: Retail Storms

Retail sales were added in September 2017 due to the hurricanes in Texas and Florida (and the other states less directly impacted). On a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales were up a sharp 1.7% from August. The vast majority of the gain, however, was in the shock jump in gasoline prices. Retail sales at gasoline stations rose nearly 6% month-over-month, so excluding those sales retail sales elsewhere gained a far more modest 0.6%.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 16/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY

USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY

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FX Weekly Preview: The Markets and the Long Shadow of Politics

Rise in paper asset prices, including so-called cyber currencies, reflects the abundance of capital. Have we forgotten what Minski taught again? Political considerations may dominate ahead of the ECB meeting later this month.

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