Tag Archive: Chart Update

Wild Speculation in Crude Oil – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-05-30

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Gold and Gold Stocks – Conundrum Alert

2018-05-22

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-05-22

Moribund Meandering Earlier this week, the USD gold price was pushed rather unceremoniously off its perch above the $1300 level, where it had been comfortably ensconced all year after its usual seasonal rally around the turn of the year. For a while it seemed as though the $1,300 level may actually hold, but persistent US dollar strength nixed that idea. Previously many observers (too many?) expected gold to finally break out from its lengthy...

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Global Turn-of-the-Month Effect – An Update

2018-05-17

by Dimitri Speck

2018-05-17

The “turn-of-the-month” effect is one of the most fascinating stock market phenomena. It describes the fact that price gains primarily tend to occur around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically far less profitable for investors. The effect has been studied extensively in the US market. In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have shown a table detailing the extent of the...

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Scorn and Reverence – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-05-16

by Keith Weiner

2018-05-16

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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How to Get Ahead in Today’s Economy

2018-05-14

by MN Gordon

2018-05-14

This week brought forward more evidence that we are living in a fabricated world. The popular story-line presents a world of pure awesomeness. The common experience, however, falls grossly short. On Tuesday, for example, the Labor Department reported there were a record 6.6 million job openings in March. Based on the Labor Department’s data, there were enough jobs available – exactly – for the 6.6 million Americans who were actively looking for a...

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US Money Supply Growth Jumps in March , Bank Credit Growth Stalls

2018-05-12

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-05-12

VEF/USD Black Market Rate, Jun 2010 - May 2018

There was a sizable increase in the year-on-year growth rate of the true US money supply TMS-2 between February and March. Note that you would not notice this when looking at the official broad monetary aggregate M2, because the component of TMS-2 responsible for the jump is not included in M2. Let us begin by looking at a chart of the TMS-2 growth rate and its 12-month moving average.

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Fear and Longing – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-05-08

by Keith Weiner

2018-05-08

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Wrong-Way Breakout in Silver – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-05-01

by Keith Weiner

2018-05-01

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Russian Gold Rush – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-04-25

by Keith Weiner

2018-04-25

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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US Stock Market: Happy Days Are Here Again? Not so Fast…

2018-04-21

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-04-21

CBOE Options Equity Pubcall Ratio, May 2013 - Apr 2018

Obviously, assorted crash analogs have by now gone out of the window – we already noted that the market was late if it was to continue to mimic them, as the decline would have had to accelerate in the last week of March to remain in compliance with the “official time table”. Of course crashes are always very low probability events – but there are occasions when they have a higher probability than otherwise, and we will certainly point those out...

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Flight of the Bricks – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-04-19

by Keith Weiner

2018-04-19

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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GBEB Death Watch

2018-03-31

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-03-31

As our friend Dimitri Speck noted in his recent update, the chart pattern of the SPX continues to follow famous crash antecedents quite closely, but obviously not precisely. In particular, the decisive trendline break was rejected for the moment. If the market were to follow the 1987 analog with precision, it would already have crashed this week.

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Trendline Broken: Similarities to 1929, 1987 and the Nikkei in 1990 Continue

2018-03-30

by Dimitri Speck

2018-03-30

S&P 500 Large Cap Index, Apr 2015 - Mar 2018

In an article published in these pages in early March, I have discussed the similarities between the current chart pattern in the S&P 500 Index compared to the patterns that formed ahead of the crashes of 1929 and 1987, as well as the crash-like plunge in the Nikkei 225 Index in 1990. The following five similarities were decisive features of these crash patterns.

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US Stock Market – How Bad Can It Get?

2018-03-25

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-03-25

In view of the fact that the stock market action has gotten a bit out of hand again this week, we are providing a brief update of charts we have discussed in these pages over the past few weeks (see e.g. “The Flight to Fantasy”). We are doing this mainly because the probability that a low probability event will actually happen has increased somewhat in recent days.

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Despondency in Silver-Land

2018-03-16

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-03-16

Over the past several years we have seen a few amazing moves in futures positioning in a number of commodities, such as e.g. in crude oil, where the by far largest speculative long positions in history have been amassed. Over the past year it was silver’s turn. In April 2017, large speculators had built up a record net long position of more than 103,000 contracts in silver futures with the metal trading at $18.30.

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Stock and Bond Markets – The Augustine of Hippo Plea

2018-03-13

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-03-13

Most fund managers are in an unenviable situation nowadays (particularly if they have a long only mandate). On the one hand, they would love to get an opportunity to buy assets at reasonable prices. On the other hand, should asset prices actually return to levels that could be remotely termed “reasonable”, they would be saddled with staggering losses from their existing exposure. Or more precisely: their investors would be saddled with staggering...

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Strange Economic Data

2018-02-24

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-02-24

Contrary to the situation in 2014-2015, economic indicators are currently far from signaling an imminent recession. We frequently discussed growing weakness in the manufacturing sector in 2015 (which is the largest sector of the economy in terms of gross output) – but even then, we always stressed that no clear recession signal was in sight yet. US gross output (GO) growth year-on-year, and industrial production (IP) – note that GO continues to be...

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US Stocks – Minor Dip With Potential, Much Consternation

2018-02-11

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-02-11

S&P 500 Large Cap Index, Jun 2017 - Feb 2018

On January 31 we wrote about the unprecedented levels – for a stock market index that is – the weekly and monthly RSI of the DJIA had reached (see: “Too Much Bubble Love, Likely to Bring Regret” for the astonishing details – provided you still have some capacity for stock market-related astonishment). We will take the opportunity to toot our horn by reminding readers that we highlighted VIX calls of all things as a worthwhile tail risk play....

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How to Buy Low When Everyone Else is Buying High

2018-02-06

by MN Gordon

2018-02-06

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Mar 2016 - Feb 2018

The common thread running through the collective minds of present U.S. stock market investors goes something like this: A great crash is coming. But first there will be an epic run-up climaxing with a massive parabolic blow off top. Hence, to capitalize on the final blow off, investors must let their stock market holdings ride until the precise moment the market peaks – and not a moment more. That’s when investors should sell their stocks and go to...

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Monetary Metals Brief 2018

2018-02-02

by Keith Weiner

2018-02-02

Predicting the likely path of the prices of the metals in the near term is easy. Just look at the fundamentals. We have invested many man-years in developing the theory, model, and software to calculate it. Every week we publish charts and our calculated fundamental prices.

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