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Great Graphic: The Euro’s Complicated Top

2017-10-19

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2017-10-19

Euro looks like it is carving out a top. The importance also lies in identifying levels that the bearish view may be wrong. Widening rate differentials, a likely later peak in divergence than previously anticipated, and one-sided market positioning lend support to the bearish view.

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US Retail Sales: Retail Storms

2017-10-17

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2017-10-17

US Retail Sales, Jun 2011 - Aug 2017
Retail sales were added in September 2017 due to the hurricanes in Texas and Florida (and the other states less directly impacted). On a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales were up a sharp 1.7% from August. The vast majority of the gain, however, was in the shock jump in gasoline prices. Retail sales at gasoline stations rose nearly 6% month-over-month, so excluding those sales retail sales elsewhere gained a far more modest 0.6%.

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Great Graphic: Potential Head and Shoulders Bottom in the Dollar Index

2017-10-01

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2017-10-01

This Great Graphic was composed on Bloomberg. t shows the recent price action of the Dollar Index. There seems to be a head and shoulders bottoming pattern that has been traced out over the last few weeks. The right shoulder was carved last week, and today, the Dollar Index is pushing through the neckline, which is found by connecting the bounces after the shoulders were formed.

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Gold Standard Resulted In “Fewer Catastrophes” – FT

2017-09-29

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2017-09-29

Prosperity
“Going off gold did the opposite of what many people think” – FT Alphaville. “Surprising” findings show benefits of Gold Standard. Study by former Obama advisor in 1999 and speech by Bank of England economist in 2017 make case for gold. UK economy was ‘much less prone to extremes’ under than the gold standard – research shows. ‘Gold standard seems to have produced fewer catastrophes for Britain’ – data shows . FT still wary of gold standard arguing...

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Swiss Tourist Industry Wins Support from Parliament

2017-09-20

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2017-09-20

A majority of parliament wants to restrict online reservation platforms in a bid to protect the Swiss hotel sector. The House of Representatives on Monday overwhelmingly approved a proposal and followed the Senate demanding that Swiss hotels will be allowed to offer lower prices for their accommodation on their websites than online travel fare aggregators, including Booking.com.

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Bitcoin: Tragedy of the Speculations

2017-09-17

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2017-09-17

The Instability Problem. Bitcoin is often promoted as the antidote to the madness of fiat irredeemable currencies. It is also promoted as their replacement. Bitcoin is promoted not only as money, but the future money, and our monetary future. In fact, it is not. Why not? To answer, let us start with a look at the incentives offered by bitcoin.

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Swiss retailers called on to remove palm oil from their products

2017-09-07

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2017-09-07

Factory
Two Swiss NGOs have started a petition calling for Swiss retailers to reduce or remove palm oil from their products. Present in many processed foods, cosmetics and detergents, the ingredient has a bad reputation. The NGOs Bread for All and the Swiss Catholic Lenten Fund want to see a reduction in palm oil consumption. They believe voluntary initiatives by the palm oil sector to clean up the industry have done nothing to address the real problems...

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Great Graphic: Young American Adults Living at Home

2017-09-06

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2017-09-06

Living at home
This Great Graphic caught our eye (h/t to Gregor Samsa @macromon). It comes from the US Census Department, and shows, by state, the percentage of young American adults (18-34 year-olds).The top map is a snap shot of from 2005. A little more than a quarter of this cohort lived at home. A decade later, and on the other side of the Great Financial Crisis, the percentage has risen to a little more than a third.  

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Great Graphic: Home Ownership and Measuring Inflation

2017-08-27

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2017-08-27

Home ownership varies throughout the EU but is overall near US levels. Germany has the lowest home ownership, and Spain has the most.  Italy has the least amount of mortgages. US include owner equivalent rents in CPI, the EU does not.

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Great Graphic: Small Caps and the Trump Trade

2017-08-26

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2017-08-26

The Russell 2000, which tracks the 2000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000, is threatening to turn positive for the year. It had turned negative in the second half of last week. Many pundits saw its decline and the penetration of the 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year as a sign of an impending down move in the broader equity market.

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The Truth About Bundesbank Repatriation of Gold From U.S.

2017-08-26

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2017-08-26

Bundesbank Gold Bar
Bundesbank has completed a transfer of gold worth €24B from France and U.S. Germany has completed domestic gold storage plan 3 years ahead of schedule. In the €7.7 million plan, 54,000 gold bars were shipped and audited.

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How will Yellen Address Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy?

2017-08-25

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2017-08-25

Yellen has identified two challenges regarding the US labor market, the opioid epidemic and women participation in the labor force. The topic of the Jackson Hole gathering lends itself more to a discussion of these issues than the nuances of monetary policy. Dynamic world growth needs a dynamic US economy, and that requires more serious thinking about these socio-economic and political issues.

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Euro Flirting with Near-Term Downtrend

2017-08-24

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2017-08-24

North American traders began the week by selling dollars. Euro is testing a downtrend off the year's high. DXY is testing its uptrend.

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Are We Already in Recession?

2017-08-16

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2017-08-16

U.S. Employment Change, 1970 - 2016
How shocked would you be if it was announced that the U.S. had just entered a recession, that is, a period in which gross domestic product (GDP) declines (when adjusted for inflation) for two or more quarters? Would you really be surprised to discover that the eight-year long "recovery," the weakest on record, had finally rolled over into recession?

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Dying men generate higher health costs

2017-08-07

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2017-08-07

Both gender and location influence the cost of end-of-life healthcare in Switzerland, finds a study funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation. In their analysis of 113,277 people who died between 2008 and 2010, researchers studied regional variations in cost of care during the last 12 months of life in Switzerland. Per person, the mean cost of care during that final year was CHF32,500 ($33,540).

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Great Graphic: Italy-It is Not Just about Legacy

2017-08-06

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2017-08-06

Global Financial Crisis, 1995 - 2016
A little while back I was part of a small exchange of views on twitter. It was about Italy. I was arguing against a claim that Italy's woes are all about its past fiscal excesses. It is not just about about Italy's legacy.

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This Is Why Shrinkflation Is Impacting Your Financial Wellbeing

2017-08-04

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2017-08-04

Product sizes shrink but prices stay the same
Shrinkflation has hit 2,500 products in five years. Not just chocolate bars that are shrinking. Toilet rolls, coffee, fruit juice and many other goods. Effects of shrinkflation been seen for “good number of years”. Consumer Association of Ireland. Shrinkflation is stealth inflation, form of financial fraud. Punishes vulnerable working and middle classes. Gold is hedge against inflation and shrinkflation.

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Great Graphic: CRB Index Hits 2017 Down Trendline

2017-07-30

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2017-07-30

The CRB Index gapped higher today and it follows a gap higher opening on Tuesday, which has not been filled. Today's gains lift the commodity index to a trendline drawn off the January and February highs and catches the high from late May. It intersects today near 181.35 and the high has been a little over 181.17.

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UN group demands reversal of Swiss minaret ban

2017-07-30

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2017-07-30

Switzerland should take steps to ensure that people's initiatives do not contravene international law, the United Nations Human Rights Committee says. It notably called for the repeal of a Swiss vote banning the construction of minarets.

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Great Graphic: What Is the Swiss Franc Telling Us?

2017-07-29

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2017-07-29

Swiss franc weakness is a function of the demand for euros. SNB indicates it will lag behind the other major central banks in normalization process. Easing of political anxiety in Europe is also negative for the franc.

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