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Do Record Debt And Loan Balances Matter? Not Even Slightly

We live in a non-linear world that is almost always described in linear terms. Though Einstein supposedly said compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe, it rarely is appreciated for what the statement really means. And so the idea of record highs or even just positive numbers have been equated with positive outcomes, even though record highs and positive growth rates can be at times still associated with some of the worst. It...

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Sender must now pay Swiss Post for customs checks

Currently, anyone ordering something from outside Switzerland, must pay Swiss Post an administrative charge if their package attracts import tax (duty and/or VAT). In addition, they must pay Swiss Post an additional CHF 13 if the parcel needs to be opened, usually because the package has been poorly labelled.

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Video: The Swiss National Bank Is Acting Like A Hedge Fund

We discuss the fact that Central Banks have basically morphed into Hedge Funds with similar risky investing strategies, except they buy without any regard to the underlying fundamentals of the assets they are buying. When did the Swiss Citizens say it was the proper role for the Swiss National Bank to be buying US Stocks? How is this stimulating the Swiss Economy?

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Not Recession, Systemic Rupture – Again

For the very few in the mainstream of economics who venture further back in history than October 1929, they typically still don’t go much last April 1925. And when they do, it is only to further bash the gold standard for its presumed role in creating the conditions for 1929. The Brits under guidance of Winston Churchill made a grave mistake, one from which gold advocates could never recover given what followed.

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Dollar Index: The Chart Everyone is Talking About

Many are discussing a possible head-and-shoulders pattern in the Dollar Index. We are skeptical as other technical signals do not confirm. We recognize scope for disappointment over the border tax and the next batch of employment data, but European politics is the present driver and may not be alleviated soon.

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What is Good for the Dollar is Bad for Gold

The Dollar Index is powering ahead, moving higher for the eighth consecutive session. Over the past 100 sessions, gold and the Dollar Index move in the opposite direction more than 90% of the time. The technical condition of gold is deteriorating.

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FX Traders Have To (Re)Learn A New Skill

Dear FX traders: forget the dot plot, and prepare to learn a new - or to some forgotten - skill: how to read trade flows. As Bloomberg's Vincent Cignarella and Andrea Wong point out, currency traders accustomed to analyzing the Fed’s dot plot and monthly U.S. jobs figures to predict the direction of the world's reserve currency are having to learn, or in some cases re-learn, a largely forgotten ability: how to scrutinize trade data. With...

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The VIX Will Be Over 100 due to Central Bank Created Tail Risk

We discuss the manner in which Central Banks have destroyed financial markets, and have the stage for what I label as the Red Swan Event in this video. When the Swiss National Bank holds risky Tech stocks in its portfolio, we are in unchartered territory!

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Great Graphic: French Premium over Germany Continues to Grow

European premiums over Germany typically increase in a rising interest rate environment. France's premium is at the most in two years. France is still set to turn back the challenge from Le Pen.

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Trade is Trump’s Centerpiece

Investors are anxiously awaiting more details on the new US Administration's economic policies and priorities. Part of the challenge is that the cabinet represents a wide range of views and it is not clear where the informal power lies, or whose call is it. In terms of economic policy, trade is being given priority. It is seen as the key to the jobs and growth objectives.

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How to Sell Your Gold & Silver to Money Metals Exchange

Learn more here: https://goo.gl/yA027t?sell-gold What you’ll need: 1. A new cardboard box that is large enough to fit all of the product that you are selling and extra packing material 2. Your precious metals that you are selling to Money Metals Exchange 3. Strong packing tape 4. Your P.O. paperwork 5. Packing material like packing …

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Dow 20K, US Debt $20 Trillion, Trump and Gold

By Jan Skoyles, Editor Mark O’Byrne In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 20,000 earlier this week for the first time in its 132 year history to much media fanfare. Bigcharts via Financial Sense Since Trump’s election US market indicators, including the Dow have been ticking up – it has been labelled the Trump rally. This latest milestone is something that the new President is happy to take credit for....

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Great Graphic: Mexico and China Unit Labor Costs

Mexico has been gaining competitiveness over China before last year's depreciation of the peso. The depreciation of the peso, and other US actions can contribute to the destabilization of Mexico. An economically prosperous and stable Mexico has long been understood to be in the US interest.

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Are Interest Rates No Longer Driving the Dollar?

Many are concerned that the dollar and interest rates have become decoupled. We are not convinced. Correlations, not to be eyeballed, are still robust.

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Davos: In Defense Of Populism

DAVOS MAN: “A soulless man, technocratic, nationless and cultureless, severed from reality. The modern economics that undergirded Davos capitalism is equally soulless, a managerial capitalism that reduces economics to mathematics and separates it from human action and human creativity.” – From the post: “For the Sake of Capitalism, Pepper Spray Davos”

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The Difference of an A and BBB for Italy

DBRS cut Italy's rating to BBB from A. It will increase the haircut on Italy's sovereign bonds used for collateral by Italian banks. It is not a mortal blow or a significant hit, but is not helpful, except to add pressure on Italy and further reduce its ability to respond to another shock.

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Great Graphic: Real Rates in US are Elevated

The US 10-year yield fell briefly below 1.32% last July. The yield slowly rose to reach 1.80% in mid-October. The day after the election, the yield initially slipped to almost 1.71%. This was a bit of a miscue, and the yield rose sharply to hit almost 2.64% the day after the FOMC hiked rates for the second time in the cycle on December 14. The yield backed off to hit 2.33% at the end of last week.

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Fake News? It’s All Fake!

BALTIMORE – In January of this year, the Empire Herald reported that a “meth-addled couple” had eaten a homeless man in New York City’s Central Park. Later, Now8News reported that a can of cookie dough had “exploded in a woman’s vagina”; the woman was alleged to be shoplifting.

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Gold – Ready to Spring Another Surprise

Below is an update of a number of interesting data points related to the gold market. Whether “interesting” will become “meaningful” remains to be seen, as most of gold’s fundamental drivers aren’t yet bullishly aligned.

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Great Graphic: Real Wages

This Great Graphic caught my eye. It was tweeted by Ninja Economics. Her point was about immigration. German had much higher immigration than the UK, but also saw real wage increase of nearly 14% in the 2007-2015 period, while real wages in the UK fell nearly 10.5%.

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