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Great Graphic: Don’t be Misled by Sterling Stability, Investors are Concerned

2017-06-06

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2017-06-06

The Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the options skew (three-month 25 delta risk reversal) in the white line, and sterling is the yellow line. The takeaway is that the market appears to be more nervous than the relatively firm sterling in the spot market suggests. Typically, one might expect those with sterling exposure to sell calls (and receive funds) rather than buy puts (new expenditure).

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Great Graphic: Iron Ore and the Australian Dollar

2017-06-04

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2017-06-04

This Great Graphic, from Bloomberg, shows the correlation between the price of iron ore and the Australian dollar on a rolling 60-day basis over the past year. The correlation is a little more than 0.81. The relationship is the tightest since last August. This is purely directional.

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Great Graphic: US Rate Curve and the Euro

2017-06-03

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2017-06-03

This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. It shows two times series. The yellow line and the left-hand scale show the euro's exchange rate against the dollar for the past year. The white line depicts the spread between the US two-year and 10-year yield.

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Great Graphic: OIl and the S&P 500

2017-05-26

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2017-05-26

S&P 500 Index, May 2017
The fluctuation of oil prices is often cited as an important factor driving equities. Our work shows that this is not always the case and that the correlation between the price of oil and the S&P 500 continues to ease.

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Great Graphic: Trade-Weighted Dollar

2017-05-13

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2017-05-13

US TWI has appreciated a little since the end of Q1. The euro and sterling's strength are exceptions to the rule. The dollar has edged up against the currencies of the US top four trading partners here in Q2.

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NAFTA Trade Update

2017-04-30

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2017-04-30

The trade tensions between the US and Canada set the Canadian dollar to lows for the year. The dollar's downside momentum against the Mexican peso has eased. The Canadian dollar looks attractive not against the US dollar but against the peso.

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Our Intellectual Bankruptcy: The “Religion” of Economics, UBI and Medicare For All

2017-04-23

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2017-04-23

Growth of Physicians and Administrators, 1970 - 2009
1. Mainstream neo-classical/ Keynesian economics. As economist Manfred Max-Neef notes in this interview, neo-classical/ Keynesian economics is no longer a discipline or a science--it is a religion. It demands a peculiar faith in nonsense: for example, the environment--Nature-- is merely a subset of the economy.

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State of Dollar Bull Market

2017-04-22

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2017-04-22

The dollar market is intact, despite the pullback here at the start of 2017. We have seen similar pullbacks in 2016 and 2015. Divergence remains the key driver.

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Euro’s Record Losing Streak Against the Yen

2017-04-15

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2017-04-15

Euro/Yen
The euro has fallen for 11 consecutive sessions against the yen. Interest rates, US and German in particular, seem to be the main driver. Technicals are stretched, but have not signaled a reversal yet.

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FX Weekly Preview: A New Phase Begins

2017-04-10

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2017-04-10

There were no celebrations; no horn or trumpets, nary a sound, but an important shift took place last week. The shift was signaled by two events. The first was the US strike on Syria, and the second was investors' willingness to look past Q1 economic data.

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Great Graphic: Emerging Market Stocks

2017-04-01

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2017-04-01

MXEF Index
MSCI Emerging Market Index is up 12.25% here in Q1. The index is approaching long-standing technical objectives. Look for profit-taking ahead of quarter-end as fund managers rebalance.

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Status of US Pivot To Asia

2017-03-22

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2017-03-22

AsiaPivot
Pivot still taking place, but without TPP, more militaristic. President Trump seems a little less confrontational toward China. China is unlikely to be cited as a currency manipulator in next month's Treasury report.

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Mugged By Reality; Many Still Yet To Be

2017-03-14

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2017-03-14

Friedman's Plucking Model
In August 2014, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer admitted to an audience in Sweden the possibility in some unusually candid terms that maybe they (economists, not Sweden) didn’t know what they were doing. His speech was lost in the times, those being the middle of that year where the Fed having already started to taper QE3 and 4 were becoming supremely confident that they would soon end them.

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Do Record Debt And Loan Balances Matter? Not Even Slightly

2017-03-12

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2017-03-12

Z1 Total Debt Securities, 1980 - 2016
We live in a non-linear world that is almost always described in linear terms. Though Einstein supposedly said compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe, it rarely is appreciated for what the statement really means. And so the idea of record highs or even just positive numbers have been equated with positive outcomes, even though record highs and positive growth rates can be at times still associated with some of the worst. It...

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Sender must now pay Swiss Post for customs checks

2017-03-05

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2017-03-05

Currently, anyone ordering something from outside Switzerland, must pay Swiss Post an administrative charge if their package attracts import tax (duty and/or VAT). In addition, they must pay Swiss Post an additional CHF 13 if the parcel needs to be opened, usually because the package has been poorly labelled.

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Video: The Swiss National Bank Is Acting Like A Hedge Fund

2017-02-26

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2017-02-26

Mario Draghi ECB SNB
We discuss the fact that Central Banks have basically morphed into Hedge Funds with similar risky investing strategies, except they buy without any regard to the underlying fundamentals of the assets they are buying. When did the Swiss Citizens say it was the proper role for the Swiss National Bank to be buying US Stocks? How is this stimulating the Swiss Economy?

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Not Recession, Systemic Rupture – Again

2017-02-25

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2017-02-25

Pyramid - Total US Gold Stock, January 2017
For the very few in the mainstream of economics who venture further back in history than October 1929, they typically still don’t go much last April 1925. And when they do, it is only to further bash the gold standard for its presumed role in creating the conditions for 1929. The Brits under guidance of Winston Churchill made a grave mistake, one from which gold advocates could never recover given what followed.

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Dollar Index: The Chart Everyone is Talking About

2017-02-21

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2017-02-21

Many are discussing a possible head-and-shoulders pattern in the Dollar Index. We are skeptical as other technical signals do not confirm. We recognize scope for disappointment over the border tax and the next batch of employment data, but European politics is the present driver and may not be alleviated soon.

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What is Good for the Dollar is Bad for Gold

2017-02-14

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2017-02-14

The Dollar Index is powering ahead, moving higher for the eighth consecutive session. Over the past 100 sessions, gold and the Dollar Index move in the opposite direction more than 90% of the time. The technical condition of gold is deteriorating.

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FX Traders Have To (Re)Learn A New Skill

2017-02-11

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2017-02-11

China Trade Balance with United States, April 2016-January 2017
Dear FX traders: forget the dot plot, and prepare to learn a new - or to some forgotten - skill: how to read trade flows. As Bloomberg's Vincent Cignarella and Andrea Wong point out, currency traders accustomed to analyzing the Fed’s dot plot and monthly U.S. jobs figures to predict the direction of the world's reserve currency are having to learn, or in some cases re-learn, a largely forgotten ability: how to scrutinize trade data. With...

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