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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-11-05

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2017-11-05

Moderate Allocation
The risk budget this month shifts slightly as we add cash to the portfolio. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is unchanged at 50%, risk assets are reduced to 45% and cash is raised to 5%. The changes this month are modest and may prove temporary but I felt a move to reduce risk was prudent given signs of exuberance – rational, irrational or otherwise.

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What’s Driving Social Discord: Russian Social Media Meddling or Soaring Wealth/Power Inequality?

2017-11-05

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2017-11-05

Boris Natasha
The nation's elites are desperate to misdirect us from the financial and power dividethat has enriched and empowered them at the expense of the unprotected many. There are two competing explanatory narratives battling for mind-share in the U.S.: 1. The nation's social discord is the direct result of Russian social media meddling-- what I call the Boris and Natasha Narrative of evil Russian masterminds controlling a vast conspiracy of social media...

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Agriculture suisse: trop, c’est trop.

2017-11-03

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2017-11-03

Après la place financière, la production d’électricité, le secteur de la santé, des assurances-maladie, voici arrivé le tour de la destruction du secteur agricole. Remarquez la chose est déjà bien emmanchée avec des suicides et des faillites d’agriculteurs harcelés par un Etat qui poursuit l’agenda d’un « marché » financier et non celui des électeurs, quand bien même ceux-ci financent leur salaire …

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What Could Pop The Everything Bubble?

2017-11-01

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2017-11-01

Selected Consumer Goods and Services Price Changes, 1996 - 2016
As central bank policies are increasingly fingered by the mainstream as the source of soaring wealth-income inequality, policies supporting credit/asset bubbles will either be limited or cut off, and at that point all the credit/asset bubbles will pop.

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Canada: Monetary and Fiscal Updates This Week

2017-10-24

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2017-10-24

Divergence between US and Canada's two-year rates is key for USD-CAD exchange rate. Canada's 2 hikes in Q3 were not part of a sustained tightening sequence. Policy mix considerations also favor the greenback if US policy becomes more stimulative.

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On the Marc Faber Controversy

2017-10-21

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2017-10-21

Dr. Marc Faber
By this time anyone reading this particular article on Acting Man will know about the controversy surrounding Marc Faber these last days, when a single paragraph of many from his October 2017 newsletter was published out of context.

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Great Graphic: The Euro’s Complicated Top

2017-10-19

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2017-10-19

Euro looks like it is carving out a top. The importance also lies in identifying levels that the bearish view may be wrong. Widening rate differentials, a likely later peak in divergence than previously anticipated, and one-sided market positioning lend support to the bearish view.

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US Retail Sales: Retail Storms

2017-10-17

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2017-10-17

US Retail Sales, Jun 2011 - Aug 2017
Retail sales were added in September 2017 due to the hurricanes in Texas and Florida (and the other states less directly impacted). On a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales were up a sharp 1.7% from August. The vast majority of the gain, however, was in the shock jump in gasoline prices. Retail sales at gasoline stations rose nearly 6% month-over-month, so excluding those sales retail sales elsewhere gained a far more modest 0.6%.

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Great Graphic: Potential Head and Shoulders Bottom in the Dollar Index

2017-10-01

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2017-10-01

This Great Graphic was composed on Bloomberg. t shows the recent price action of the Dollar Index. There seems to be a head and shoulders bottoming pattern that has been traced out over the last few weeks. The right shoulder was carved last week, and today, the Dollar Index is pushing through the neckline, which is found by connecting the bounces after the shoulders were formed.

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Gold Standard Resulted In “Fewer Catastrophes” – FT

2017-09-29

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2017-09-29

Prosperity
“Going off gold did the opposite of what many people think” – FT Alphaville. “Surprising” findings show benefits of Gold Standard. Study by former Obama advisor in 1999 and speech by Bank of England economist in 2017 make case for gold. UK economy was ‘much less prone to extremes’ under than the gold standard – research shows. ‘Gold standard seems to have produced fewer catastrophes for Britain’ – data shows . FT still wary of gold standard arguing...

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Swiss Tourist Industry Wins Support from Parliament

2017-09-20

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2017-09-20

A majority of parliament wants to restrict online reservation platforms in a bid to protect the Swiss hotel sector. The House of Representatives on Monday overwhelmingly approved a proposal and followed the Senate demanding that Swiss hotels will be allowed to offer lower prices for their accommodation on their websites than online travel fare aggregators, including Booking.com.

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Bitcoin: Tragedy of the Speculations

2017-09-17

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2017-09-17

The Instability Problem. Bitcoin is often promoted as the antidote to the madness of fiat irredeemable currencies. It is also promoted as their replacement. Bitcoin is promoted not only as money, but the future money, and our monetary future. In fact, it is not. Why not? To answer, let us start with a look at the incentives offered by bitcoin.

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Swiss retailers called on to remove palm oil from their products

2017-09-07

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2017-09-07

Factory
Two Swiss NGOs have started a petition calling for Swiss retailers to reduce or remove palm oil from their products. Present in many processed foods, cosmetics and detergents, the ingredient has a bad reputation. The NGOs Bread for All and the Swiss Catholic Lenten Fund want to see a reduction in palm oil consumption. They believe voluntary initiatives by the palm oil sector to clean up the industry have done nothing to address the real problems...

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Great Graphic: Young American Adults Living at Home

2017-09-06

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2017-09-06

Living at home
This Great Graphic caught our eye (h/t to Gregor Samsa @macromon). It comes from the US Census Department, and shows, by state, the percentage of young American adults (18-34 year-olds).The top map is a snap shot of from 2005. A little more than a quarter of this cohort lived at home. A decade later, and on the other side of the Great Financial Crisis, the percentage has risen to a little more than a third.  

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Great Graphic: Home Ownership and Measuring Inflation

2017-08-27

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2017-08-27

Home ownership varies throughout the EU but is overall near US levels. Germany has the lowest home ownership, and Spain has the most.  Italy has the least amount of mortgages. US include owner equivalent rents in CPI, the EU does not.

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Great Graphic: Small Caps and the Trump Trade

2017-08-26

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2017-08-26

The Russell 2000, which tracks the 2000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000, is threatening to turn positive for the year. It had turned negative in the second half of last week. Many pundits saw its decline and the penetration of the 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year as a sign of an impending down move in the broader equity market.

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The Truth About Bundesbank Repatriation of Gold From U.S.

2017-08-26

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2017-08-26

Bundesbank Gold Bar
Bundesbank has completed a transfer of gold worth €24B from France and U.S. Germany has completed domestic gold storage plan 3 years ahead of schedule. In the €7.7 million plan, 54,000 gold bars were shipped and audited.

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How will Yellen Address Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy?

2017-08-25

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2017-08-25

Yellen has identified two challenges regarding the US labor market, the opioid epidemic and women participation in the labor force. The topic of the Jackson Hole gathering lends itself more to a discussion of these issues than the nuances of monetary policy. Dynamic world growth needs a dynamic US economy, and that requires more serious thinking about these socio-economic and political issues.

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Euro Flirting with Near-Term Downtrend

2017-08-24

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2017-08-24

North American traders began the week by selling dollars. Euro is testing a downtrend off the year's high. DXY is testing its uptrend.

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Are We Already in Recession?

2017-08-16

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2017-08-16

U.S. Employment Change, 1970 - 2016
How shocked would you be if it was announced that the U.S. had just entered a recession, that is, a period in which gross domestic product (GDP) declines (when adjusted for inflation) for two or more quarters? Would you really be surprised to discover that the eight-year long "recovery," the weakest on record, had finally rolled over into recession?

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