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Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

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Is Grexit Back on the Table?

2015-12-02

by Marc Chandler

2015-12-02

Defying the expectations a few months ago, Greece remained in the Economic and Monetary Union. It recently succeeded in implementing sufficient reforms to earn another tranche of aid. However, the entire exercise exhausted whatever trust the...

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France’s Revival or Politics Trumps Economics

2015-11-27

by Marc Chandler

2015-11-27

With the ECB poised to take additional steps down the unorthodox monetary policy route, financial and economic forces are as potent as ever. However, there is a subtle shift taking place that few seem to recognize. It is the re-emergence of...

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Swiss GDP 2014 +1.9%. Trade Surplus Contributed More than Half, Consumption Lagged

According to the figures of Swiss Statistics, the Swiss trade surplus rose by 10.4% in 2014. Therefore its contribution to the 2014 real GDP is higher than 50%. Private consumption lagged compared to the other components of Gross Domestic Product.

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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms

George Dorgan shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement in the local currency. Effectively, Swiss real GDP rose by 15% in Euro terms, but fell slightly in CHF. He also emphasizes that Switzerland needs a big rebalancing of its economy, away from exports towards consumption. The Swiss National Bank was right to remove the euro peg. The move towards consumption is only possible when the Swiss franc is stronger because consumers will...

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Eurocrisis, Myth and Reality, part 1: Big Job Creation in Spain

In the new series George Dorgan suggests that the euro crisis is a temporary development but not a long-lasting crisis. In the first part he shows that Spain actually created a lot of jobs in last twenty five years.

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Steve Keen Steering the Greek Hedge Fund into the Minsky Moment #Tsiprasfacts

In the following we present the drivers of Swiss price inflation. We first present the components of the consumer price index. Then we explain which are upwards-drivers of inflation and which ones cause downwards adjustments.

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2014 Posts on Swiss Macro

Swiss Balance of Payments 2014, Q1-Q3 and Implications on CHF

Despite macro-prudential measures like the countercyclical capital buffer, Swiss credit to the private sector is rising more quickly than previously. On the other side, real estate prices are not increasing so rapidly any more. Global risks let M3 money supply growth slow in June 2014.

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Inflation Difference between Eurozone and Switzerland Narrows to 0.3 percent

2014-06-16

by George Dorgan

2014-06-16

According to Swiss Statistics the inflation rate has risen to 0.2% y/y – as for both the Swiss CPI standard and the European HICP standard.

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ECB Measures Background: How to Reduce German Competitiveness and Talk down the Euro

2014-06-06

by George Dorgan

2014-06-06

In our view, the ECB measures of June 2014 want to increase German lending, spending, salaries and inflation. Finally they target a reduction of German competitiveness. The ECB wanted to talk down the euro but will not succeed. We explain why the measure are bullish for the euro. We expect EUR/USD of 1.40 in the … Continue...

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Euro and EU sceptical Parties in EU 2014 Elections: The Economic Danger Is Left not Right

2014-05-30

by George Dorgan

2014-05-30

The tendency of the European parliament elections seems to be that in the Northern countries rather right-wing parties obtain more votes, like British UKIP, German AFD, Danish People’s Party, Austrian FPÖ or Sweden Democrats. In the austerity countries the left-wing movements are getting stronger and stronger, led by SYRIZA in Greece and Sinn Fein in …

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Update 2014: Swiss home price to income ratio small in historic and global comparison

2014-04-15

by George Dorgan

2014-04-15

Based on four different data sources, we prove that Swiss the home price to income ratio is small in global comparison and in a historic perspective. Combined with another decade of near zero interest rates, reason enough to think that the Swiss real estate boom should continue for another decade.

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Swiss Yearly Inflation Rate Overtakes First Eurozone Countries

2014-04-11

by George Dorgan

2014-04-11

swiss consumer price index, eurozone hicp harmonized consumer price index

According to Swiss Statistics the yearly inflation rate is at 0.0%, and the monthly rate is +0.4%. The Spanish CPI is already under zero at -0.2%, and the Italian one is at +0.3%, not to speak about severe Cyprus or Greek deflation . Still in February 2012, the difference between the Swiss and Euro …

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History of the Swiss Balance of Payments, 1985-2013

Direct Investments Portfolio Investments Net Bank Lending Reserve Assets

swiss gdp forecast march 2014 seco, consuotion, business cycles expert group

We think that, similarly as Japanese JGBs, Spanish and Italian Government Bond Yields will continue its race to the bottom, Short Italian Bonds is the new Widow-Maker Trade.

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