Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

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Weekly Sight Deposits: No SNB Interventions, Short CHF nearing records

2016-12-12

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2016-12-12

Euro/Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, December 12
Who has read Milton Friedman knows that the Trump reflation trade is now showing its positive side. US wages are rising by 2.5%, while inflation is still relatively low. According to Friedman, inflation will increase only later.

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Wie die SNB durch Kapitalsteuern die Schweizer Wirtschaft belastet

2016-12-07

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2016-12-07

Vor dem Hintergrund eines angeblich „schwachen Wirtschaftswachstums“ rechtfertigte SNB-Chef Thomas Jordan neulich in einem Interview in der Tagespresse die SNB-Negativzinsen und bezeichnete diese als „expansiv“. Nur: Sind Negativzinsen wirklich „expansiv“? Sind diese nicht viel eher „restriktiv“ und bremsen unsere Wirtschaft – bewirken also genau das Gegenteil von dem, was die SNB behauptet?

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The War On Cash Is Happening Faster Than We Could Have Imagined

2016-12-03

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2016-12-03

It’s happening faster than we could have ever imagined. Every time we turn around, it seems, there’s another major assault in the War on Cash. India is the most notable recent example– the embarrassing debacle a few weeks ago in which the government, overnight, “demonetized” its two largest denominations of cash, leaving an entire nation in chaos.

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Chernobyl

2016-12-02

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Charles I. Plosser, “A Personal Tribute to Karl Brunner”, 22.09.2016

2016-12-01

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Karl Brunner Centenary Event, 22.09.2016

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Ernst Baltensperger, “Karl Brunner and the Heritage of Monetarism”, 22.09.2016

2016-12-01

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Karl Brunner Centenary Event, 22.09.2016

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Benjamin M. Friedman, “Intellectual Origins of the Financial Crisis”, 22.09.2016

2016-12-01

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Karl Brunner Centenary Event, 22.09.2016

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Thomas Jordan, Welcome address, 22.09.2016

2016-12-01

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Karl Brunner Centenary Event, 22.09.2016

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Allan H. Meltzer, “Karl Brunner, Scholar: An Appreciation”, 22.09.2016

2016-12-01

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Karl Brunner Centenary Event, 22.09.2016

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Evidence Matters: The Role of Evidence in Uncertain Times; Izabella Kaminska

2016-11-30

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Read our blog on the seminar here: http://www.iffresearch.com/evidence-matters/ On the 17th of November 2016 IFF gathered an audience of users and producers of evidence at RSA House to discuss how we can use our influence to make progress in the face of uncertainty. The event featured talks from a host of leading industry experts and …

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Weekly Sight Deposits: Investors hedge with Swiss Franc again for the coming inflation cycle.

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

Euro/Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, November 28
We explained the Trump reflation trade, where the Swiss Franc acts as the usual inflation hedge against the obviously inflationary policies of Trumpeconomics. Trump is about tax cuts – i.e. a fiscal deficit up to 10%, and about protectionism. Trump would restrict global trade and push up U.S. wages.

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Swiss banks taking more risks to compensate for record-low interest rates

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

Swiss Bank Risk
Swiss banks focused on property lending are taking more risks to compensate for the impact of record-low interest rates, increasing the threat of a real-estate bubble, Swiss National Bank Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg said.

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L’Allemagne est le patron-sponsor de l’Eurosystem.

2016-11-25

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2016-11-25

Bundesbank Logo
Lors des échanges commerciaux et interbancaires, il y a des banques émettrices de monnaie et vis-à-vis une banque réceptrice. Normalement, à la fin de la journée, tout cela devrait être ramené à l’équilibre. Ceci n’est plus le cas depuis la crise américaine de 2007 (subprimes) comme nous le voyons sur le graphique ci-dessous de quelques pays de la zone euro.

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Former CEO Of UBS And Credit Suisse: “Central Banks Are Past The Point Of No Return, It Will All End In A Crash”

2016-11-21

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2016-11-21

Remember when bashing central banks and predicting financial collapse as a result of monetary manipulation and intervention was considered "fake news" within the "serious" financial community, disseminated by fringe blogs? In an interview with Swiss Sonntags Blick titled appropriately enough "A Recession Is Sometimes Necessary", the former CEO of UBS and Credit Suisse, Oswald Grübel, lashed out by criticizing the growing strength of central banks...

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Weekly Sight Deposits: Investors hedge against Trump’s inflationary policy with Swiss Franc.

2016-11-21

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2016-11-21

Euro/Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, November 21
We explained the Trump reflation trade, where the Swiss Franc acts as the usual inflation hedge against the obviously inflationary policies of Trumpeconomics. Trump is about tax cuts - i.e. a fiscal deficit up to 10%, and about protectionism. Trump would restrict global trade and push up wages. According to Lars Christensen Trumpeconomics is also about monetary stimulus: Trump would push for a more jobs and a dovish Fed, same as his fellow...

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SNB sollte Bund bis 60 Milliarden ausschütten – nur so ist der Steuerzahler sicher

2016-11-19

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2016-11-19

Letzte Woche gab die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) bekannt, dass sie für dieses Geschäftsjahr eine Milliarde Franken an Bund und Kantone ausschütten wird. Von der Presse wird dies unterschiedlich interpretiert. Einerseits nimmt man mit Genugtuung zur Kenntnis, dass die SNB überhaupt eine Milliarde ausschütten kann. Andererseits wird mit Blick auf drohendes negatives Eigenkapital der SNB gewarnt, diese müsse dringend Reserven bilden.

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Did President-Elect Trump Just Inadvertently Kill The Golden Goose?

2016-11-19

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2016-11-19

Non-financial Corporate Business
President-Elect Trump may have just unwittingly sowed the seed of an equity market draw-down which will send even more protesters into the streets of America. Donald Trump’s stated economic policies are clearly pro-growth and if he manages to implement his pro-business, anti-regulation agenda, in the longer term they have the potential to surpass the bold and successful initiatives of Ronald Reagan.

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Swiss National Bank won’t cut record low interest rate again, survey shows

2016-11-17

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2016-11-17

SNB negative interest
The Swiss National Bank, which has the lowest interest rate among the world’s major central banks, may be done cutting. SNB President Thomas Jordan and his fellow policy makers will keep the deposit rate unchanged at minus 0.75 percent until at least the end of the first quarter of 2019, according to the median forecast in Bloomberg’s monthly survey of economists. That would mean ignoring the International Monetary Fund’s advice to fend off inflows...

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European break up now looks more likely, says Blond

2016-11-14

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2016-11-14

If there’s one country with reason to resent the rise of populist movements, it’s Switzerland. Twenty-two months after it abandoned its 1.20-per-euro exchange-rate cap, the Swiss National Bank still finds the franc in focus every time there’s a major event that threatens to upset markets.

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Serious Flaws in ECB’s Economic Thinking

2016-11-14

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2016-11-14

Marc Meyer shows that the European Central Bank has big flaws in their economic thinking. Lowering the ECB Deposit Rate means depressing the economy. The ECB takes the risk when it buys Greek bonds. Should Greek bonds devalue then the ECB equity ratio falls under zero and European banks write must write-down their ECB Deposits.

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