Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF
SNB meeting on March 15th, 2012: Pure Speculation that SNB raises floor, How to Trade it ?
Between November 2011 and January 2012 mostly left-wing politicians and trade unions wanted the EUR/CHF floor to be risen to 1.30 or 1.40 and uttered their wishes regularly in the Swiss newspapers, triggering many FX traders to speculate on this hike. Recently these demands have become more silent even if some UBS analysts still see the floor to …
Read More »
Read More »
Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?
Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction.
Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...
Read More »
Read More »
EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor Hike: February 2012
EUR/CHF Busy Doing Jack; Jordan Gobbing Off Later EUR/CHF sits at 1.2048, some 7 pips easier from when I started out. Barrier option interest sits at 1.2025 and ofcourse 1.2000. SNB interim head honcho Jordan speaks later this evening (18:30 GMT) in Zurich. Might be giving instructions on how to make his favourite alpine muesli … Continue reading...
Read More »
Read More »
A Swiss central-banking scandal: Called to account
IT IS starting to look like a sustained attack. On January 4th an article in Die Weltwoche, a Swiss weekly magazine, accused Philipp Hildebrand, president of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), of personal currency speculation while the SNB was intervening to stabilise the Swiss franc/US dollar rate.
Read More »
Read More »
EUR/CHF, Market betting on Floor Hike, December 2011
Four Trades For 2012: #2 Sell The Swiss Franc I bought EUR/CHF shortly after the 1.20 peg was introduced and have held it ever since. My only regret has not been trading the range more aggressively. At this point everyone has an opinion of the SNB so I won’t try to convince the bears. Personally, … Continue reading »
Read More »
Read More »
SNB: Lift EUR/CHF floor or not ?
Many participants in the FX markets seem to be sure that the SNB will lift the EUR/CHF flow to 1.25 Here the pros and the cons:
Read More »
Read More »
EUR/CHF Markets Betting on Floor Hike: October 2011
October 2011 Looks Like Market Exercising The Free EUR Put The SNB Bought For It EUR/CHF has been under pressure for the the last two weeks despite Herculean efforts by the EU/IMF to bailout the euro zone. It looks as if the market is taking up the SNB on its offer the buy unlimited … Continue reading »
Read More »
Read More »
Expectations: Jedi monetary policy
On Tuesday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) adopted a bold policy of pledging to sell Swiss Francs in an unlimited amount to ensure that the exchange rate viz-a-viz the euro is at least 1.2 Swiss Francs per euro. The exchange rate promptly jumped over 8 percent to a bit more than 1.2 Swiss Francs per euro. The SNB can clearly weaken its currency in this way, so long as its commitment is unwavering.
Read More »
Read More »
Exchange-rate targets: Francly wrong
WHEN the going gets tough, the tough buy Swiss francs. That was true in the 1970s, when the Swiss were forced to impose negative interest rates on foreign depositors. And it has been true in recent years, with Switzerland's currency rising by 43% against the euro between the start of 2010 and mid-August this year.
Read More »
Read More »
Currency interventions: Francs for nothing
CENTRAL banks have historically been regarded as the guardians of a currency's value, but occasionally they want to drive their exchange rates down. Rarely have they acted as aggressively as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) did on September 6th.
Read More »
Read More »