2025-04-14
In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market’s “early warning system.” To wit:” “Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often …
Read More »2025-04-11
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Tariff Reprieve Sends Stocks Surging Last week, we noted that the market was not expecting retaliation from China. “Rather than coming to the table to negotiate, China responded with a reciprocal 34% tariff on the U.S. plus export controls on rare earth metals needed for technological production. China is …
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The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag that hasn’t yet caught up with reality. As we have discussed, the American consumer is …
Read More »2025-04-07
Last week, we noted that “nothing good happens below the 200-DMA,” and the tariff-induced market crash this past week confirmed that statement. However, we also noted that over the last 30 years, previous failures at the 200-DMA have also often been buying opportunities. That is unless some ”event” of magnitude creates a massive shift in analysts’ estimates. …
Read More »2025-04-05
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report The “Liberation Day” Crash Last week, we noted that it would not be uncommon for the market to retest recent lows. That is what happened on Monday morning before rallying sharply off that level. However, that rally was short-lived as President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on Wednesday afternoon liberated the …
Read More »2025-04-04
A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. When sentiment shifts due to anticipated weakness in any of these areas, equity prices often decline, reflecting …
Read More »2025-04-01
In last week’s post, “Is the correction over?” we wrote about the potential for a rally back to the 200-DMA. However, the failure of that test increased short-term concerns. As we noted in that post, there were early indications of buyers returning to the market. To wit: “The chart below has four subpanels. The first …
Read More »2025-03-29
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Failure At The 200-DMA Last week, we noted that the market performance, while distressing as of late, has been well within regular correctionary market cycles from a historical perspective. To wit: “While Trump’s tariffs and bearish headlines currently dominate investors’ psychology, we must remember that corrections are a normal …
Read More »2025-03-28
Following the latest Federal Reserve meeting, there was a massive surge in media headlines stating “stagflation.” The media’s stagflation panic is unsurprising as it elicits memories of the late 1970s during the Arab oil embargo. Of course, a “stagflation” is excellent fodder for clicks and views as it scares the “bejeebers” out of people. Over the last …
Read More »2025-03-22
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Is A Bottom Beginning To Form? Last week, we noted that the market performance, while distressing as of late, has been well within regular correctionary market cycles from a historical perspective.
Read More »2025-03-21
U.S. recession risks have been a headline over the last few weeks as the markets sold off. “Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics in recent days joined forecasters raising alarm about the increased likelihood of an economic downturn.
Read More »2025-03-18
It has been an interesting correction. The average retail investor was “buying the dip” despite having an extremely bearish outlook. This is an interesting point because, as shown, the retail investor used to be considered a ”contrarian indicator” as they were prone to be driven by emotional behaviors that led them to “buy high and sell low.” …
Read More »2025-03-15
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Market Volatility Spikes Last week, we discussed that the market continues to track Trump’s first Presidential term as he launched a trade war with China. “However, despite the deep levels of negativity, the current correction is well within the context of the volatility seen during Trump’s first term as …
Read More »2025-03-14
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.” The entire article is worth reading, but here are the five key reasons investors often fail at investing: These are great points, particularly now that …
Read More »2025-03-01
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report February Weakness And The Outlook For March Last week, we discussed that continued bullish exuberance and high levels of complacency can quickly turn into volatility. Over the previous week, the market fell sharply following news of a potential viral outbreak in China and more concerns about tariffs from the …
Read More »2025-02-28
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.” One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull …
Read More »2025-02-25
Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. As noted last week, correlations between all asset classes, whether international or emerging markets, gold or bitcoin, have all gone to one. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations …
Read More »2025-02-22
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report New Coronavirus Discovery Shakes Markets Last week, we discussed that continued bullish exuberance and high levels of complacency can quickly turn into volatility. As we noted then, introducing an unexpected, exogenous event can soon lead to a price decline if investors begin to reprice forward expectations. On Friday, that …
Read More »2025-02-21
For Part 1 on “Tariff Risk” read: Tariff Impact Not As Bearish As Predicted. In “Trumpflation” we discussed why the tariff risk was not inflation. To wit: “Today, globalization and technology give consumers vast choices in the products they buy. While instituting a tariff on a set of products from China may indeed raise the …
Read More »2025-02-18
Last week, we discussed the surge in retail exuberance in the market following the election of President Trump. “The market defies more negative news because retail investors continue to step in and “buy the dip.” In our recent Bull Bear reports, we discussed the push by retail investors, but looking at retail sentiment is quite …
Read More »2025-02-15
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Market Shakes Off Inflation Data I am back from traveling, and we have a good bit to catch up on since our last report. If you missed it, I provided an update on Tuesday, updating all the weekly technical and statistical data we produce. Most noteworthy in that report was …
Read More »2025-02-14
There are many media-driven narratives about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the markets. Most of them are incredibly bearish, predicting the absolute worst possible outcomes. For fun, I asked ChatGPT what the expected impact of Trump’s tariffs will likely be. Here is the answer: “One of the immediate consequences of increased tariffs …
Read More »2025-02-11
I could not produce our weekly Bull Bear Report this past weekend as I presented at Michael Campbell’s Moneytalks Conference in Vancouver. However, I wanted to use today’s technical update to review some of the statistical analysis we produce each week in that commentary. Such is mainly the case given last Monday’s “tariff” shock and …
Read More »2025-02-07
The Federal Reserve’s record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial conditions. In the most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve changed its statement to support a pause in the current interest rate-cutting cycle. As noted by Forbes: “The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee agreed unanimously …
Read More »2025-02-04
Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. Such was not unexpected, as contained in the Trump tariff Executive Order {SEE HERE}. Specifically, that order stated: “[Sec 2, SubSection (h)]: Sec. 2. (a) All articles that are products of Canada as defined …
Read More »2025-02-01
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Administrative Note – No Newsletter Next Week Next weekend, I am flying to Vancouver to deliver the keynote address at Mike Campbell’s annual Moneytalks Conference. As such, I won’t be able to produce a newsletter next week. I appreciate your patience, and the full newsletter will return the following …
Read More »2025-01-31
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election. Such is particularly the case with recent executive orders signed by Trump, which fulfill Trump’s promises to “Make America Great Again.” Given that short-term market dynamics are driven primarily by sentiment, as investors, we can not dismiss …
Read More »2025-01-28
On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost. As we noted in our Daily Market Commentary yesterday: “The 3% panic sell-off on the Tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 futures is focused on the view that China’s DeepSeek AI model rollouts show AI products …
Read More »2025-01-25
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report January Barometer On Track Last week, we noted that with the first five days of January making a positive return, such set the “January Barometer” in motion. If you missed our previous discussions, we reviewed the historical precedents of “So goes January, so goes the month.” “However, even with …
Read More »2025-01-24
I recently debated with Michael Pento, who made an interesting statement that increases in the money supply, the deficit, and a return to quantitative easing (QE) will lead to 1970s-style inflation. The recent experience of inflation in 2021 and 2022 would seem to justify such a view. However, is that historically the case, or was …
Read More »2025-01-21
In a recent post, I discussed Wall Street’s return estimates for 2025 for the S&P 500 index. To wit: “We have some early indications of Wall Street targets for the S&P 500 index, and, as is always the case, they are optimistic for the coming year. The median estimate is for the market to rise …
Read More »2025-01-17
As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way. However, while most analysts and investors expect 2025 to be another bullish year, there is always a risk of a more disappointing …
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Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Administrative Note I am publishing the report a day early as we are holding our Economic and Investment Summit tomorrow morning. As such, all the data in this report is either as of Thursday’s close or early Friday morning. Therefore, any erroneous conclusions will be corrected in Monday’s Daily …
Read More »2025-01-14
In last week’s discussion with Thoughtful Money, I noted that we are becoming more “tactically bearish” as we progress into 2025. While we have remained primarily bullish in equity positioning over the last two years, several risks are now worth considering. However, it is critical to note that being “tactically bearish” does NOT mean we …
Read More »2025-01-11
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report One Week Left To Get Your Tickets Don’t miss the opportunity to get your tickets for the 2025 Economic and Investing Summit. Seating is extremely limited, and this year’s event is almost sold out. We have set aside time to visit with attendees one-on-one to answer your burning questions …
Read More »2025-01-10
I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my portfolio management practices. As with all resolutions made at the beginning of a new year, it is not uncommon …
Read More »2025-01-07
“Curb Your Enthusiasm,” which ran its series finale last year, starred Larry David as an over-the-top version of himself in a comedy series that showed how seemingly trivial details of day-to-day life can precipitate a catastrophic chain of events. The show never failed to deliver a laugh but also reminded me that unexpected events can …
Read More »2025-01-04
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Last Chance For Early Bird Registration Since New Year’s fell in the middle of the week, I am extending the “Early Bird Discount” for our upcoming RIA 2025 Economic Summit through Sunday for our weekly newsletter readers. Don’t miss the opportunity to get your tickets for the 2025 Economic …
Read More »2025-01-03
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, ”Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”. I often forget how old I have become, and the investing legends of my youth are no longer there and are lost to the sands of time. …
Read More »2024-12-28
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Last Chance For Early Bird Registration Get your tickets for the 2025 Economic and Investing Summit before prices increase on January 1st. Seating is very limited. Did Santa Get Stuck In The Chimney? Last week, we discussed that the selloff heading into Christmas was the setup for the beginning …
Read More »2024-12-27
When the Obama Administration first suggested the Affordable Care Act following the Financial Crisis, we argued that the outcome would be substantially higher, not lower, healthcare costs. It is interesting today that economists and the media complain about surging healthcare costs with each inflation report but fail to identify the root cause of that escalation. …
Read More »2024-12-24
We want to take this opportunity to wish you, your family, and your loved ones a very merry and joyful Christmas. We also want to say “Thank You” for all of your support, loyal readership, and the friends we have made through sharing ideas over the last year. While it may be deemed “politically incorrect” these days to say such …
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We want to take this opportunity to wish you, your family, and your loved ones a very merry and joyful Christmas. We also want to say “Thank You” for all of your support, loyal readership, and the friends we have made through sharing ideas over the last year. While it may be deemed “politically incorrect” these days to say such …
Read More »2024-12-21
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Powell & A Government Shutdown Hits Stocks Last week, we noted the ongoing market churn that could last into this week’s Fed meeting. To wit: “That certainly seemed the case this past week, with the market trading being fairly sloppy. Attempts to push the market higher were repeatedly met …
Read More »2024-12-20
It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and predicts next year’s market returns. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, these forecasts are often wrong and sometimes very wrong. For example, on December 7th, 2021, we wrote an article about the predictions for 2022. “There is one thing …
Read More »2024-12-17
I never thought someone would label me a “Permabull.” This is particularly true of the numerous articles I wrote over the years about the risks of excess valuations, monetary interventions, and artificially suppressed interest rates. However, here we are. “Lance, you are just another permabull talking your book. When this market crashes you will still be telling …
Read More »2024-12-14
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report First Comes The Fed, Then Santa Last week, we discussed that the risk to the markets was the annual portfolio rebalancing process. To wit: “With the year-end approaching, portfolio managers need to rebalance their holdings due to tax considerations, distributions, and annual reporting. For example, as of this writing, …
Read More »2024-12-13
Understanding the trajectory of corporate earnings is crucial for investors, as these earnings significantly influence stock valuations and market performance. Economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) provide valuable insights into the economic environment that shapes company profitability. …
Read More »2024-12-10
While analysts are currently very optimistic about the market, the combined risk of high valuations and the need to rebalance portfolios in the short term may pose an unanticipated threat. This is particularly the case given the current high degree of speculation and leverage in the market.
Read More »2024-12-07
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Everybody Is Very Bullish Last week, we discussed how speculation and leverage have returned in earnest to the market as investors rush to take on increasing levels of risk. With markets rising steadily all year, it is unsurprising to witness investors lulled into an elevated sense of complacency. Stocks, …
Read More »2024-12-06
Corporations are currently producing the highest level of profitability, as a percentage of GDP, in history. However, understanding corporate profitability involves more than glancing at quarterly earnings reports. At its core, the Kalecki Profit Equation provides a valuable framework, especially when exploring the reasons behind today’s elevated profit margins and what could disrupt them. James …
Read More »2024-12-03
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify. As discussed in last week’s #BullBearReport, leverage and speculation are at the heart of many such cycles. These two powerful forces support the amplification of gains during upswings but can accelerate losses in downturns. Today’s market environment shows …
Read More »2024-11-30
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report A Note Of Thanksgiving While belated, we sincerely hope you had a happy and fulfilling Thanksgiving holiday. In the words of Henry David Thoreau, “I am grateful for what I am and have. My Thanksgiving is perpetual.” All of us at RIA Advisors and Real Investment Advice are grateful …
Read More »2024-11-26
Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk). By observing these spreads, investors can gauge …
Read More »2024-11-23
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report A Holiday Rally Is Likely Last week, we discussed the impact of the Trump Presidency on the financial markets based on expectations of tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation. Since then, the ”Trump Trade” went into full swing, pushing the markets higher; however, as we noted, that the trading had gotten a …
Read More »2024-11-22
With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the worries about tariffs and pro-business policies sparked concerns of “Trumpflation.” Inflation has been a top concern for policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, especially following the sharp price increases experienced over the past few years. However, growing evidence shows inflationary pressures continue to ease significantly, paving the way …
Read More »2024-11-19
Following President Trump’s re-election, the S&P 500 has seen an impressive surge, climbing past 6,000 and sparking significant optimism in the financial markets. Unsurprisingly, the rush by perma-bulls to make long-term predictions is remarkable.
Read More »2024-11-16
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report A Pause That Refreshes? Last week, we discussed that with the election over and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, many market headwinds were put behind us. To wit; “As a result, the market surged higher, hitting our year-end target of 6000 on Friday. Furthermore, since election day, the …
Read More »2024-11-15
Paul Tudor Jones recently voiced concerns that rising U.S. deficits and debt and increasing interest rates could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained borrowing will trigger inflation, raise interest rates, and eventually overwhelm the government’s ability to manage its debt obligations. In short, his thesis is that interest …
Read More »2024-11-12
Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index. To wit: “Consumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 “Trump” tax cuts.” (Note: this survey was …
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Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index. To wit:
“Consumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 “Trump” tax cuts.“ (Note: this survey was completed before the Presidential Election.)
We also discussed households’ allocations to equities, which, according to Federal Reserve data, have reached the highest levels on record.
In that article, we discussed the risk associated with high levels of investor exuberance.
“Risk isn’t always what it seems. When the market feels the safest, that’s often when it’s often the riskiest. Think about it — when everything is
Read More »2024-11-09
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report S&P 6000…Already? Last week, we discussed the expected derisking heading into an uncertain election. “There is an important lesson in this week’s action. Over the last several weeks, we have warned about the weakening of momentum and relative strength and the triggering of the MACD ‘sell signal.’ However, many …
Read More »2024-11-08
The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic …
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The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and geopolitical events.
Here are some quick thoughts about what we at RIA Advisors think about the stock and bond markets in 2025.
Stock Markets
Upside Potential: During the Trump presidency, he will focus on ensuring the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, passed in 2017, does not sunset in 2025, which will keep corporate tax rates at 21%. However, it is not unlikely that he will also push for a new
Read More »2024-11-05
With Election Day finally here, markets are bracing for potential volatility. History shows that the stock market can react unpredictably to election outcomes, especially when the results are unclear or contested. In past elections, sudden policy shifts, political uncertainty, or contentious outcomes caused heightened volatility—making it essential to prepare your portfolio now to weather whatever …
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With Election Day finally here, markets are bracing for potential volatility. History shows that the stock market can react unpredictably to election outcomes, especially when the results are unclear or contested. In past elections, sudden policy shifts, political uncertainty, or contentious outcomes caused heightened volatility—making it essential to prepare your portfolio now to weather whatever the day brings.
The S&P 500 has averaged a 7% gain during U.S. presidential election years since 1952. While a 7% gain is far from disastrous, it is also well short of the 22% gain this year. Of course, investors need to remember that past performance does not guarantee future returns, and there have only been 18 presidential elections since 1952.
Notably, this is the best election-year
Read More »2024-11-02
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report One The Greatest Risk-Adjusted Returns…Ever Last week, we discussed the break of the rising wedge pattern. “Unsurprisingly, the market stumbled a bit this past week, breaking the “rising wedge” pattern to the downside. However, the market continues to find buyers at the 20-DMA as portfolio managers are unwilling to …
Read More »2024-11-01
Corporate buybacks have become a hot topic, drawing criticism from regulators and policymakers. In recent years, Washington, D.C., has considered proposals to tax or limit them. Historically, buybacks were banned as a form of market manipulation, but in 1982, the SEC legalized open-market repurchases through Rule 10b-18. Although intended to offer companies flexibility in managing …
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Corporate buybacks have become a hot topic, drawing criticism from regulators and policymakers. In recent years, Washington, D.C., has considered proposals to tax or limit them. Historically, buybacks were banned as a form of market manipulation, but in 1982, the SEC legalized open-market repurchases through Rule 10b-18. Although intended to offer companies flexibility in managing capital, buybacks have evolved into tools often serving executive interests over broader shareholder value.
This article explores the mechanics of buybacks, how they impact markets, and whether they truly return capital to shareholders—or merely enrich insiders.
The Rise of Corporate Buybacks: By the Numbers
Since 2003, U.S. corporations have spent over $11 trillion on share repurchases. Corporate
Read More »2024-10-29
Key market indicators for November 2024 present a complex but opportunity-filled environment for traders and investors. Following the first phase of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing global uncertainties, the technical landscape suggests several notable shifts. Let’s explore the key market indicators to watch.
Note: If you are unfamiliar with basic technical analysis, this video is a short tutorial.
Seasonality and Breakout Patterns
As discussed recently, Seasonality is a crucial key market trend in November. Historically, the stock market transitions from the weaker summer months into a stronger end-of-year rally, often dubbed the “Santa Claus Rally,” beginning mid-December. On a rolling 6-month basis, November to April has both the highest percentage returns and the
Read More »2024-10-25
I was emailed several times about a recent Morningstar article about J.P. Morgan’s warning of lower forward returns over the next decade. That was followed up by numerous emails about Goldman Sachs’ recent warnings of 3% annualized returns over the next decade.
While we have previously covered many of these article’s points, a comprehensive analysis is needed. Let’s start with the overall conclusion from JP Morgan’s article:
“The investment bank’s models show the average calendar-year return for the S&P 500 could shrink to 5.7%, roughly half the level since World War II. Millennials and Generation Z might not enjoy the robust returns from U.S. stocks that helped swell the retirement accounts of their parents and grandparents.”
While such a statement may seem obvious to
Read More »2024-10-22
Seasonality has long influenced stock market trends, offering insights into predictable cycles of strength and weakness throughout the year. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, is one of the most well-known contributors to studying these patterns. His research has highlighted that certain periods of the year consistently present better opportunities for investors to generate returns, while other times warrant caution.
The adage ” Sell May and Go Away “ is a common topic of discussion that many investors are familiar with. The historical analysis supports that the market tends to be the weakest of the year during the summer months. Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac introduced the idea that the stock market follows a seasonal rhythm, where certain times of the year
Read More »2024-10-18
In times of disaster and destruction, a common narrative often emerges that rebuilding efforts will lead to economic growth. The idea that repairing damage and replacing destroyed goods creates jobs that spur consumption and stimulate economic activity is tempting. However, as French economist Frédéric Bastiat explained in his famous “Broken Window Theory,” this reasoning is fundamentally flawed. Rather than generating net economic benefits, destruction diverts resources and wealth that could have been used for more productive purposes, ultimately stifling real economic growth.
Recent events, particularly the devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024, provide a clear example of why destruction does not create long-term economic prosperity. Despite the short-term boost
Read More »2024-10-15
In the movies, greed is a trait often exhibited by the rich and powerful as a means to an end. Of particular note is the famous quote from Michael Douglas in the 1987 movie classic “Wall Street:”
“The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good.
2024-10-11
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released its second-quarter GDP report for 2024, showcasing a 2.96% growth rate. This number has sparked discussions among investors and analysts, particularly those predicting an imminent recession. There are certainly many supportive data points that have historically predicted recessionary downturns. The reversal of the yield curve inversion, the 6-month rate of change in the leading economic index, and most recently, consumer confidence warn of a recessionary onset.
However, despite these warning signs, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, defying many bearish forecasts. This article will explore the recent GDP report, the risks to continued growth, and potential investing opportunities.
Defying Recession Calls: The
Read More »2024-10-08
When most people hear the word “risk,” they think about wild market swings, scary headlines, and losing money overnight, but Howard Marks, Co-Chairman and Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management, takes a different approach. In his new video series How to Think About Risk, Marks digs deep into what risk is and how investors should handle it. Spoiler alert: It’s not just about volatility.
The CFA Institute recently summarized the video stream, but I wanted to elaborate on some of Howard Mark’s views.
Let’s break down some key lessons from Marks that can help you rethink your investing approach to risk.
Risk Isn’t Just Volatility
One of the biggest takeaways from Marks’ series is the idea that risk and volatility aren’t the same thing. For years, many investors (and academics)
Read More »2024-10-04
As the November 2024 election draws near, the election outcome will profoundly affect the financial markets. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency, each administration will bring distinct policies creating investment opportunities and potential risks for investors.
Read More »2024-10-01
We are currently in the “everything market.” It doesn’t matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isn’t likely for the reasons you think. A recent Marketwatch interview with the always bullish Jim Paulson got his reasoning for the rally.
“It is this cocktail of ‘full support’ at the front end of a bull market which commonly has created an ‘Everything Market’ during the early part of a new bull. That is, for a period, almost everything simultaneously rises – value, growth, small, large, defensive, and cyclical stocks – and usually by a lot.
Short rates are falling, bond yields have declined, money growth is rising, fiscal stimulus has again expanded, and disinflation is still evident; and because of this new and overwhelming
Read More »2024-09-27
An analysis of Presidential Candidate Trump’s policy proposals recently suggests that tax cuts will increase the deficit. While the raw analysis is correct, as it subtracts the potential for reduced tax collections from the tariff revenue, it ignores the impact on economic growth.
There is much rhetoric about the impact of tax cuts, mostly centering around “only benefitting the rich.” While it may seem that “the rich” are the ones who benefit, there are two important points to consider. First, “the rich” already pay most of the taxes. The Tax Foundation shows that the top 10% of income earners paid 59.1% of taxes. The top 25% of income earners comprised nearly 70% of all tax revenue, with the top 50% paying 97% of all taxes.
Of course, such begs the question of those
Read More »2024-09-24
Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. For investors, understanding how similar rate cuts have historically impacted markets and which sectors tend to benefit is key to navigating the months ahead.
In this post, we will explore the historical market performance following similar 50-basis-point rate cuts, highlight the best-performing sectors and market factors after such cuts, and outline three critical risks investors should be aware of heading into year-end.
Historical Outcomes To Rate Cuts
A 50-basis-point rate cut, especially the first one, is an aggressive
Read More »2024-09-20
When stock markets rise, the bullish narrative tends to dominate, overlooking the potential impact of market declines. This oversight stems from two main problems: a basic misunderstanding of math and time’s critical role in investing. Every year, I receive the following chart as a counterargument when discussing the importance of managing risk during a portfolio’s life cycle. The chart shows that while the average bull market advance is 149%, the average bear market decline is just -32%.
So, why bother managing risk when markets rise 4.7x more over the long term than they fall?
As with any long-term analysis, one should quickly realize the most critical issue for every investor—time.
The Reality of Long-Term Stock Market Returns
Yes, since 1900, the stock market has
Read More »2024-09-17
Since 2020, momentum investing has generated significantly better returns than other strategies. Such is not surprising, given the massive amounts of stimulus injected into the financial system. However, Brett Arends for Marketwatch noted in 2021 that momentum investing can give you an edge.
Read More »2024-09-13
The August jobs report highlighted a critical reality: the labor market is cooling off. While the headline figures seemed decent, the underlying data reveals clear warning signs that worker demand is slowing. Investors should pay attention because the link between employment and its impact on the economy and the market is undeniable. While often overlooked, as we will discuss, there is an undeniable link between economic activity and corporate earnings. Employment is the driver of a consumption-based economy. Consumers must produce first before consuming, so employment is critical to corporate earnings and market valuations. We will discuss these in order.
Slowing Labor Market: The First Red Flag
The August jobs report indicated that job creation has slowed dramatically,
Read More »2024-09-10
The S&P 500 index is a critical benchmark for the U.S. equity market, and its performance often dictates investor sentiment and decision-making. Between November 1, 2022, and September 6, 2024, the S&P 500 experienced a significant rally but not without volatility. Currently, investors have very mixed views about where markets are heading next as concerns of a recession linger or what changes to monetary policy will cause.
However, as investors, we must trade the market we have today. Therefore, using technical analysis, we can explore bullish and bearish market dynamics to assist us in managing risk more effectively. This blog will outline three bullish and bearish perspectives using momentum, relative strength, and other key technical indicators. Finally, we will conclude with five
Read More »2024-09-06
It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than driving to a local retailer or manufacturer, we order it online. Of course, we mustn’t dismiss the rise of social media, which connects us to everyone and everything more than ever.
Economists and experts have long argued that technological advances drive U.S. economic growth and productivity. As innovations emerge, they play a crucial role in shaping the economy, improving efficiency, and enhancing productivity across various sectors. From artificial intelligence to automation, the benefits of technological progress are widespread and profound.
For example, automation and artificial
Read More »2024-09-03
Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
Read More »2024-08-30
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Let’s start with the deficit. Much angst exists over the rise in interest rates. The concern is whether the government can continue to fund itself, given the post-pandemic surge in fiscal deficits. From a purely “personal finance” perspective, the concern is valid. “Living well beyond one’s means” has always been a recipe for financial disaster.
Notably, excess spending is not just a function of recent events but has been 45 years in the making. The government started
Read More »2024-08-27
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
Note: We wrote this article on Saturday, so all data and analysis is as of Friday’s market close.
For example, three weeks ago, the growth sectors of the market were highly oversold, while the previous lagging defensive sectors were overbought. That was not surprising, as the growth sectors of the market were the most exposed to the “Yen Carry Trade. “
We saw much the same in the Risk Range Analysis (Note: both sets of analysis presented are published weekly in the Bull Bear Report).
As explained in the weekly report:
Two critical points. First, three weeks ago, many sectors and
Read More »2024-08-23
The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock market. However, as is often the case, the devil is in the details. We uncover a more troubling picture when we peel back the layers of this seemingly positive data. Seasonal adjustments, downward revisions, and rising delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans suggest a more cautious view. The consumer—the backbone of the U.S. economy—may be in more trouble than the headline numbers indicate.
The Mirage of Seasonal Adjustments
The July retail sales report showed a sharp increase of 1.0% month-over-month, surpassing expectations. However, while that number supports the idea of a
Read More »2024-08-20
The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us.
However, the picture becomes more nuanced as we examine the technical levels and broader market conditions. While the recent bounce suggests the market decline may be over, risks remain—particularly with the November election looming. Let’s dive into the details.
The August Decline: What Caused It?
August has historically been volatile for markets; this year was no exception. A combination of factors drove the S&P 500’s 8.5% drop:
Read More »2024-08-16
I was recently asked about the seemingly strong “economic growth” rate as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting rates.
“If economic growth is so strong, as noted by the recent GDP report, then why would the Federal Reserve cut rates?”
It’s a good question that got me thinking about the trend of economic growth, the debt, and where we will likely be.
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth. However, the problem is that while the artificial stimulus created a surge in inflationary pressures, it did little to spark
Read More »2024-08-13
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency. As we noted previously:
“While there have certainly been more extended periods in the market without a 2% decline, it is essential to remember that low volatility represents a high “complacency” with investors. In other words, the longer the market moves higher without a significant correction, the more confident investors become. They respond by raising their allocations to equities (risk) and reducing their allocations to cash (safety).”
As repeatedly discussed in June and July, a 5-10% correction is normal and occurs almost
Read More »2024-08-09
A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t the economic saviors they are touted to be.
What Is A Universal Basic Income (UBI)
To understand why the theory of universal basic income (UBI) is heavily flawed, we need to understand what UBI is.
“Basic income, also called universal basic income (UBI), is a public governmental program for a periodic payment delivered to all citizens of a given population without a means test or work requirement. Basic income can be implemented nationally, regionally, or locally, and is an unconditional income sufficient to meet
Read More »2024-08-06
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.
Read More »2024-08-02
Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As shown, the latest employment report has triggered that indicator.
So, does this mean a recession is imminent? Maybe. However, we can now add this indicator to the long list of other recessionary indicators, also flashing warning signs.
As discussed in “Conference Board Scraps Its Recession Call,” the Leading Economic Index (LEI) has a long history of accurately predicting recession outcomes. As we showed, each previous decline in the 6-month rate of change in the LEI from the Conference Board has aligned with a recession. We are currently in one of the most extended periods on record
Read More »2024-07-23
We noted last Friday that over the previous few years, a handful of “Mega-Capitalization” (mega-market capitalization) stocks have dominated market returns and driven the bull market. In that article, we questioned whether the dominance of just a handful of stocks can continue to drive the bull market. Furthermore, the breadth of the bull market rally has remained a vital concern of the bulls.
Read More »2024-06-04
In 2022, we discussed the market’s deviations from long-term growth trends. That discussion centered on Jeremy Grantham’s commentary about market bubbles.
Read More »2024-04-26
The latest retail sales data suggests a robust consumer, leading economists to become even more optimistic about more robust economic growth this year.
Read More »2024-04-12
Is immigration why employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue defying mainstream economists’ estimates? Many are asking this question as the U.S. experiences a flood of immigrants across the southern border.
Read More »2024-03-19
With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. If you don’t understand the importance of corporate share buybacks and the blackout periods, here is a snippet of a 2023 article I previously wrote.
Read More »2024-03-12
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.
Read More »2024-03-10
Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies.
Read More »2024-03-05
Valuation metrics have little to do with what the market will do over the next few days or months. However, they are essential to future outcomes and shouldn’t be dismissed during the surge in bullish sentiment. Just recently, Bank of America noted that the market is expensive based on 20 of the 25 valuation metrics they track.
Read More »2024-02-16
Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average American as follows.
Read More »2022-07-15
“Giant corporations are using inflation as cover to raise their prices & boost their profits. In industry after industry, we have too little competition & companies have too much power to increase prices. I’ve been calling out this corporate profiteering & price gouging” – Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Read More »2022-05-30
High inflation has captured the headlines as of late particularly as CPI recently hit the highest levels since 1981. Some are even suggesting we will face hyperinflation. However, while inflation is certainly present, the question to be answered is whether it will remain that way, or if the worst may already be behind us?
Read More »2022-03-16
Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With CNBC airing “Markets In Turmoil” every time the market dips, it’s no wonder investor sentiment is now the lowest we have seen financial crisis lows.
Read More »2022-03-04
Hiking rates into a wildly overvalued market is potentially a mistake. So says Bank of America in a recent article.
Optimists expecting the stock market to weather the rate-hike cycle as they’ve done in the past are missing one important detail, according to Bank of America Corp.’s strategists.While U.S. equities saw positive returns during previous periods of rate increases, the key risk this time round is that the Federal Reserve will be “tightening into an overvalued market,” the strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a note.“The S&P 500 is more expensive ahead of the first rate hike than any other cycle besides 1999-00,” they said.” – Yahoo Finance
While many media experts suggest that investors should not be concerned about rate hikes, BofA makes a very valid point
Read More »2022-03-01
“Sell Energy Stocks” Was Originally Published At Marketwatch.com
Sell energy stocks? Such certainly seems counter-intuitive advice given high oil prices, geopolitical stress, and surging inflation. However, some issues suggest this could indeed be the time to “sell high.”
Before we go further, it is essential to state that I am not recommending selling energy stocks in total. As is always the case, portfolio management is about minimizing risk and preserving capital. Reducing energy exposure by selling portions of existing positions is more prudent.
As shown, there is a high correlation between the price of oil, the energy sector as represented by SPDR Energy ETF (XLE,) and even oil stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM.) Therefore, if oil prices decline, energy stocks will also.
Read More »2022-01-19
The market selloff into January rattled investors as concerns of “So Goes January, So Goes The Year” began to dampen expectations. Combined with a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, rising inflation, and a reduction in liquidity, investor concerns seem to be well-founded.
Read More »2021-08-08
Previously, we discussed Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its one limitation of inflation. However, as is always the case when “theories” collide with “reality,” the tenants of the theory are quickly discarded.
Read More »2021-08-03
The “Fear Of Missing Out” has infected retail and hedge funds alike as they ramp up exposure to chase performance. We have previously discussed the near “mania” of retail investors taking on exceptional risk in various manners. From increasing leverage, engaging in speculative options trading, and taking out personal loans to invest, it’s all evidence of overconfident investors.
Read More »2021-06-28
Furthermore, let’s understand what these debates are really about. The debates over capitalism aren’t about Mike Jones, who operates the local auto mechanic repair shop. Nor Annie Smith, the operator of a personal training studio. Mike and Annie are taking advantage of a capitalist economy. Capitalism provides the ability to earn more wealth than paid employment.
Read More »2021-05-27
Last weekend, I joined Richard Rosso, CFP and Danny Ratliff, CFP to discuss the outlook for the markets for the rest of this year and take questions from our attendees.
Read More »2021-05-18
“The strong economic recovery will not get interrupted by inflation or a credit crunch, and the market will soon reach 4,500.” – Ed Yardeni via Advisor Perspectives. After discussing BofA’s view of why the market could drop to 3800, I thought it fair to discuss a more optimistic view.
Read More »2021-05-11
“If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?” That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen.
As Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in the stock market.
2021-05-07
Are stocks “cheap,” or is this just another bullish “rationalization.” Such was the suggestion by the consistently bullish Brian Wesbury of First Trust in a research note entitled “Yes, Stocks Are Cheap.” To wit:
“The Fed remains highly accommodative, there are trillions of dollars of cash on the sidelines, vaccines have reached over 50% of Americans, and the economy is expanding rapidly. Some valuations have been stretched, but the market as a whole remains undervalued. As a result, we remain bullish and are lifting our targets.”
Yes, it is true the Fed remains highly accommodative, which has undoubtedly pushed asset prices higher. In fact, financial conditions recently reached a historic low, which suggests elevated asset valuations ironically.
We have busted the “myth of cash on the
Read More »2021-05-02
In this issue of “All Inflation Is Transitory, The Fed WIll Be Late Again.“
Market Review And Update
All Inflation Is Temporary
The Fed Should Be Hiking Now
Portfolio Positioning
#MacroView: No. Bonds Aren’t Overvalued.
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager
Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha
Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week
Market Review & Update
Last week, we said:
“The market is trading well into 3-standard deviations above the 50-dma, and is overbought by just about every measure. Such suggests a short-term ‘cooling-off’ period is likely. With the weekly ‘buy signals’ intact, the markets should hold above key support levels during the next consolidation phase.”
“As shown above, that is what is currently occurring. While
Read More »2020-12-24
In 2019, we wrote about how corporate share repurchases, or “stock buybacks,” had accounted for nearly all buying in the market. A year later, that significant support for asset prices has reversed.
Read More »2020-08-26
Why this isn’t 1920 has everything to starting valuations and future returns. While, generally, I’m not too fond of comparisons between today’s markets and the past, Ed Yardeni made a comparison too bombastic to disregard in his blog.
Read More »2020-08-24
The 4% Rule Is Dead. A recent article by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch pointed out this sobering fact but is one we have discussed previously. Retirees have long counted on being able to retire on their assets and take out 4% each year. However, a little more than 20-years later, the “death of the withdrawal rate” has arrived. What should retirees do now?
Read More »2020-08-05
As discussed in Is It Insanely Stupid To Chase Stocks, the market has gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q2-2020 review of Commitment Of Traders report (COT,) we can see how positioning has moved back to extremes.
Read More »2020-07-14
Since the onset of the pandemic, the Fed has entered into the most aggressive monetary campaign. Its goal was to bolster asset markets to restore confidence in the financial system. However, the trap is the Fed is in a position where they can never stop QE as interest rates can’t rise ever again.
Read More »2020-07-07
If you missed Part-1 of our series on the “Theory Of MMT Falls Flat When Faced With Reality,” start there. In Part-2, we complete our analysis of the theory and the potential ramifications. The premise of our discussion was this recent explanation of “Modern Monetary Theory” by Stephanie Kelton.
Read More »2017-11-08
The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth.
Read More »2017-01-22
For the third time in four weeks, the market was closed on Monday due to a holiday. Not only is this week shortened by a holiday, it is also coinciding with the annual Billionaire’s convention in Davos, Switzerland and the Presidential inauguration on Friday. Increased volatility over the next couple of days will certainly not be surprising.
Read More »2016-10-26
It’s been really busy as of late to cover all of the topics I have wanted to address. One topic, in particular, is the bond market and the ongoing concerns of a “bond bubble” due to historically low interest rates in the U.S. and, by direct consequence, historically high bond prices.
Read More »2016-10-23
“It is not surprising the Fed once again failed to take action as their expectations for economic growth were once again lowered. In fact, as I have noted previously, the Federal Reserve are the worst economic forecasters on the planet.
Read More »2016-09-23
As I noted on Thursday, the Fed non-announcement gave the bulls a reason to charge back into the markets as “accommodative monetary policy” is once again extended through the end of the year. Of course, it is not surprising the Fed once again failed …
Read More »2016-09-02
On Tuesday, I noted the end of summer and the entrance into one of the weakest months of the year statistically speaking. “We can confirm BofAML’s point by looking at the analysis of each month of September going back to 1960 as shown in the chart below.”
Read More »2016-08-26
As summer begins to fade, and kids return to school, the focus once again turns to the annual event of Central Bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. However, if you only looked at the market as a gauge as to the excitement of the event, well it must have been one pretty boring after-party.
Read More »
On Swiss National Bank 
Main SNB Background Info 
