by Lance Roberts
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While coming in much stronger than expected, the latest employment data confirmed what we already suspected: the economy is slowing. The reason the employment data is so important is that without employment growth, the economy stalls. It takes, on average, […]
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Inflation Risk Is Subsiding Rapidly
2025-04-18
Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years. Such is unsurprising given that inflation spiked following the pandemic in 2020 as consumer spending (demand) was shot into overdrive from stimulus payments and production (supply) was shuttered. To understand why that occurred, we need to revisit …
The Consumer Is Tapping Out
2025-04-11
The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag that hasn’t yet caught up with reality. As we have discussed, the American consumer is …
The Stock Market Warning Of A Recession?
2025-04-04
A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. When sentiment shifts due to anticipated weakness in any of these areas, equity prices often decline, reflecting …
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
2025-01-24
I recently debated with Michael Pento, who made an interesting statement that increases in the money supply, the deficit, and a return to quantitative easing (QE) will lead to 1970s-style inflation. The recent experience of inflation in 2021 and 2022 would seem to justify such a view. However, is that historically the case, or was …
Affordable Care Act & The Inflation Of Healthcare
2024-12-27
When the Obama Administration first suggested the Affordable Care Act following the Financial Crisis, we argued that the outcome would be substantially higher, not lower, healthcare costs. It is interesting today that economists and the media complain about surging healthcare costs with each inflation report but fail to identify the root cause of that escalation. …
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