Tag Archive: Investing

The Lifeline of Markets – Liquidity Defined

2021-06-30

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2021-06-30

Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dec 1986 - 1987
We recently read an analogy in which the author compares the current state of asset prices to an airplane flying at 50,000 feet. Unfortunately, we cannot find the article and provide a link. The gist is market valuations are flying at an abnormally high altitude. While our market plane cannot sustain such heights in the long run, there is little reason to suspect it will fall from the sky either.

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Interview: Candid Coffee – Mid-Year Market Review

2021-05-27

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2021-05-27

Last weekend, I joined Richard Rosso, CFP and Danny Ratliff, CFP to discuss the outlook for the markets for the rest of this year and take questions from our attendees.

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Taper Is Coming: Got Bonds?

2021-05-26

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2021-05-26

Taper Is Coming: Got Bonds? The solid economic recovery and easing of COVID restrictions lead us to believe a tapering of QE may not be far off. Further supporting our opinion, inflation has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and employment is improving rapidly.

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Technically Speaking: Yardeni – The Market Will Soon Reach 4500

2021-05-18

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2021-05-18

S&P 500 Earnings Revisions, 1990 - 2020
“The strong economic recovery will not get interrupted by inflation or a credit crunch, and the market will soon reach 4,500.” – Ed Yardeni via Advisor Perspectives. After discussing BofA’s view of why the market could drop to 3800,  I thought it fair to discuss a more optimistic view.

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Technically Speaking: If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?

2021-05-11

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2021-05-11

Concern of Stock Market Bubble, 2016 - 2021
“If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?” That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen. As Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in the stock market.

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#MacroView: Are Stocks Cheap, Or Just Another Rationalization?

2021-05-07

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2021-05-07

Are stocks “cheap,” or is this just another bullish “rationalization.” Such was the suggestion by the consistently bullish Brian Wesbury of First Trust in a research note entitled “Yes, Stocks Are Cheap.” To wit: “The Fed remains highly accommodative, there are trillions of dollars of cash on the sidelines, vaccines have reached over 50% of Americans, and the economy is expanding rapidly. Some valuations have been stretched, but the market as a...

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Demand for Gold is Expected to Grow Exponentially in 2021

2021-05-06

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2021-05-06

Demand for Gold
The difference between physical gold investing and ETF investing was stark in the first quarter 2021 according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends data released last week. Before focusing in on investment demand below a few notes on overall gold demand in the first quarter.

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All Inflation Is Transitory. The Fed Will Be Late Again.

2021-05-02

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2021-05-02

In this issue of “All Inflation Is Transitory, The Fed WIll Be Late Again.“ Market Review And Update All Inflation Is Temporary The Fed Should Be Hiking Now Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: No. Bonds Aren’t Overvalued. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week   Market Review & Update Last week, we...

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Seth Levine: Bitcoin Doesn’t Fix Defi, Defi Fixes Bitcoin

2021-05-02

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2021-05-02

Does Bitcoin Fix Defi (Definancialization)? “Bitcoin fixes this.” I cringe every time I see this popular meme. I find it worse than nails on a chalkboard. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (crypto) supporters seem to wheel this tired trope out for every problem they see, particularly at economic ones. To their credit, they genuinely want to fix the financial system’s problems.

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The Battle Royale: Stocks vs. Bonds (Which Is Right?)

2021-04-28

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2021-04-28

Peak S&P Earnings vs Actual Earnings, 1980-2020
The Battle Royale: Stocks vs. Bonds. The S&P 500 is at valuations higher than those in 1929 and rival those of 1999. Despite a recession, the index is 25% above where it was trading before the pandemic. The equity stampede is undoubtedly bullish about corporate earnings prospects and, by default, economic growth.  

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Is ESG Investment the Future of Gold & Silver?

2021-04-10

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2021-04-10

‘ESG’ is a great buzzword in investing right now. For years the momentum has been building for the idea that retirement savings should do more than keep you secure, it also should help the planet. Obviously, no one wants to hurt the planet since its our only home. ESG Investment is shorthand for Environmental, Social and Governance, which are the three lenses through which investments are to be ranked.

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A Major Support For Asset Prices Has Reversed

2020-12-24

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2020-12-24

In 2019, we wrote about how corporate share repurchases, or “stock buybacks,” had accounted for nearly all buying in the market. A year later, that significant support for asset prices has reversed.

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Seth Levine: How I Process Ideas Into Investments

2020-11-20

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2020-11-20

Investing is incredibly hard. Mapping observations to security price movements are complex. Often, the relationships governing these moves are unknown. Yet, this is the investor’s task. I’ve used this blog as a tool for exploring some of these connections. It’s been incredibly rewarding.

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Technically Speaking: Why This Isn’t 1920. Valuations & Returns

2020-08-26

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2020-08-26

SP500 Total Real Return, 1905 - 2019
Why this isn’t 1920 has everything to starting valuations and future returns. While, generally, I’m not too fond of comparisons between today’s markets and the past, Ed Yardeni made a comparison too bombastic to disregard in his blog.

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The 4.0 percent Rule Is Dead. What Should Retirees Do Now?

2020-08-24

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2020-08-24

Interest Rates, 1998 - 2020
The 4% Rule Is Dead. A recent article by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch pointed out this sobering fact but is one we have discussed previously. Retirees have long counted on being able to retire on their assets and take out 4% each year. However, a little more than 20-years later, the “death of the withdrawal rate” has arrived. What should retirees do now?

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Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Back To Extremes: Q2-2020

2020-08-05

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2020-08-05

QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust
As discussed in Is It Insanely Stupid To Chase Stocks, the market has gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q2-2020 review of Commitment Of Traders report (COT,) we can see how positioning has moved back to extremes.

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Reading The Market’s Postmodern Mind

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

Defining Pre-modernism, Modernism, and Postmodernism
No matter how you slice it, markets are human. This even applies to the “algos” as it’s we who write their mechanistic marching orders. Thus, understanding human behavior can be helpful in assessing and anticipating market moves. There’s no choice in the fact that we all need a philosophy to live.

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Passive Fingerprints Are All Over This Crazy Market

2020-07-16

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2020-07-16

Apple Fundamental Analysis
Passive Fingerprints Are All Over This Crazy Market. Apple’s stock is up over 20% since the market peak in February. Without a doubt, Apple, the company, is worse off due to the crisis and global recession. Revenue and earnings will be inferior to what Wall Street had forecast at lower stock prices. Valuations, shown below, are now astronomical.

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Monthly Macro Monitor: We’re Not There Yet

2019-07-21

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2019-07-21

US High Yield Master 2000-2015
I first wrote about the current economic slowdown a year ago and Jeff Snider actually started seeing signs of slowdown in the Eurodollar market as early as May 2018. So, the slowdown we’re in now certainly isn’t a surprise here at Alhambra. I think though that we often forget how long these things take to develop.

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Living In The Present

2019-01-08

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2019-01-08

10-Year US Treasury Yield 2016-2018
It’s that time of year again, time to cast the runes, consult the iChing, shake the Magic Eight Ball and read the tea leaves. What will happen in 2019? Will it be as bad as 2018 when positive returns were hard to come by, as rare as affordable health care or Miami Dolphin playoff games? Will China’s economy succumb to the pressure of US tariffs and make a deal?

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