Tag Archive: Economics

The Stagflation Narrative: What Doomers Get Wrong – Part II

2026-05-15

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2026-05-15

The stagflation narrative dominating financial social media isn't completely wrong. That's what makes it so dangerous. After more than 30 years of managing client portfolios through actual inflationary cycles, not watching them on YouTube, I've learned that the most damaging investment advice isn't built on outright lies. It's built on partial truths, stretched past the …

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Commodity Supercycle: The Enemy Of The Bull Thesis (Part 1)

2026-05-08

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2026-05-08

The commodity supercycle thesis is everywhere right now. Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, one of the most widely read strategists on Wall Street, recently declared "commodities the biggest trade of the next five years," anchoring the call on deglobalization, chronic capital underinvestment, and a world drifting away from dollar dominance. As is often the case, …

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A Robot Economy: Who Gets Rich, Who Gets Left Behind

2026-05-01

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2026-05-01

Robots are coming to the economy. It is inevitable, really, and there is nothing that will stop it. At some point in the not-so-distant future, robots will infiltrate every aspect of our lives, from office work and manufacturing to service work and trade skills, and even your home. Here are some numbers for you. The …

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The Permanent Emergency 

2026-04-30

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2026-04-30

How the West traded liberty for the illusion of security Unlike the centuries that came before it, full of great and truly important ideological and philosophical clashes, full of historical shifts in the trajectory of Western thought, values identity and culture, the story of our time will most likely not feature any grand battles of ideas or any defining crescendos that will captivate the imagination and inspire future students of history. It...

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Government Debt: Not What The Doom Crowd Thinks It Is

2026-04-24

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2026-04-24

Every few years, someone discovers that the United States government owes a very large amount of dollars and concludes that Rome is about to fall. A recent piece in RealClearMarkets by Nash, Thomas, Lang, and Rastin does exactly this. They rely on the Roman Empire’s collapse and the Weimar Republic’s hyperinflation as cautionary parallels to …

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BLS Jobs Report Is Broken. Is There A Better Measure?

2026-04-17

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2026-04-17

"March's 178,000 BLS jobs report came in nearly three times Wall Street's 60,000 estimate. Markets celebrated. Almost nobody mentioned the entire beat traced back to doctors returning from a strike and weather rebounds. That's not strength.

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Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: “Iran will be our Siracusa”

2026-04-10

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2026-04-10

Part of the upcoming “World War III” documentary The following interview offers a fascinating look back at the past conflicts that the US has been involved in, but also a very chilling look ahead, especially given the recent developments in the Iran war. Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson’s military and diplomatic record provides a uniquely sound foundation for his assessment of current American geopolitical standing. Having served 31 years in the US...

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Oil Shock: Will The Fed Intervene (Part 2)

2026-04-10

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2026-04-10

Last week, we discussed the risk of an oil shock leading to a recession. To wit: "After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got …

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Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes

2026-04-03

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2026-04-03

After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump …

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Why gold’s recent “silence” is a flashing buy signal

2026-04-02

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2026-04-02

The recent “calm” in the gold market has left many observers, and especially the precious metal’s critics, questioning whether the “safe-haven” thesis still stands or whether its time has passed. In the shadow of the ongoing Middle East conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the yellow metal failed to deliver the immediate, parabolic spike that many assumed should accompany a global energy crisis. Instead, we witnessed the opposite,...

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Rubino: Fiat Currencies Are In A Death Spiral

2026-03-27

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2026-03-27

The fiat currency collapse narrative is one of the most emotionally satisfying arguments in all of financial punditry. It feels intellectually rigorous, draws on genuine history, and speaks to deep and legitimate anxieties about government overreach, monetary recklessness, and the long-term consequences of unlimited debt creation. Monetary analyst John Rubino makes the case as well …

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Chas Freeman: The flea driving the dog

2026-03-23

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2026-03-23

Part of the upcoming “World War III” documentary At a time when it takes great courage, and a great appetite for risk, to speak one’s mind freely about the most important issue in the world right now, it sure is reassuring to see that there important voices that still have what it takes to do so. The interview that follows is a prime example of that. Chas Freeman is a highly distinguished retired American diplomat, polyglot, and author with a...

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The Dollar’s Plumbing: Conspiracy Vs. Data

2026-03-20

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2026-03-20

Every few months, a headline appears declaring that the U.S. dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency is over. China is dumping Treasuries. Central banks are hoarding gold. The BRICS are building a new monetary order. The sanctions that froze $300 billion of Russia’s reserves in 2022 proved, the argument goes, that dollar-denominated assets are …

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General Erich Vad: Make Europe Relevant Again

2026-03-17

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2026-03-17

Part of the upcoming “World War III” documentary One of the most important dynamics of the war in Ukraine is the growing divide between the political aims of the powers that be and the will of the people who are not directly participating in said war, but are still being forced to pay for it. It is becoming increasingly obvious, and increasingly problematic for those in charge, that the narrative that has been force fed to Europeans to justify...

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Fitzpatrick: Soros CEO & CIO Warns of a Reckoning

2026-03-13

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2026-03-13

A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned. The post Fitzpatrick: Soros CEO & CIO Warns of a Reckoning appeared first on RIA.

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USD Stablecoins And The Rebasement Of The US Dollar

2026-03-06

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2026-03-06

The “fiat is dying” argument has become a catchphrase narrative among digital asset bulls, gold bugs, and cryptocurrency advocates. That narrative's core is that central banks have printed vast amounts of money. The "money printing" has led to currency debasement and rendered the U.S. dollar obsolete. We discussed this "debasement" narrative previously. The narrative is …

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Economic Sentiment Belies Strong Economic Estimates

2026-02-27

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2026-02-27

Economic growth metrics for the United States have recently shown surprising resilience; however, consumers' economic sentiment has not. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate, real Gross Domestic Product expanded at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, well below expectations and a steep drop from the 4.4% pace in the third quarter. However, …

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Godfrey Bloom: The Futility of War

2026-02-27

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2026-02-27

Part of the upcoming “World War III” documentary Few individuals can claim to speak with equal authority on both the intricacies of the modern financial and monetary system and the hard realities of military strategy and especially the connection between the two. Trained at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Bloom served in the British Territorial Army, specializing in logistics and procurement and reaching the rank of Major. He is also a...

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Martin Armstrong: Empires always fail

2026-02-11

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2026-02-11

Part of the upcoming “World War III” documentary Martin Armstrong has long been known for his very influential work on global capital flow analysis and cyclical economic trends. The forecasting models he designed have anticipated sovereign debt crises and times of geopolitical instability, with his most widely recognized forecasting framework being the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). He has successfully predicted a number of major events,...

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The Reflation Narrative

2026-02-06

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2026-02-06

The market got off to a strong start in 2026, with investors chasing industrials, materials, and commodity-related stocks as the reflation narrative gained traction. The "reflation narrative" is the belief that a range of policies will boost the rate of economic growth in the U.S. without triggering inflation. As I discussed at our recent 2026 …

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