Tag Archive: S&P 500

The Transitory Story, I Repeat, The Transitory Story

Understand what the word “transitory” truly means in this context. It is no different than Ben Bernanke saying, essentially, subprime is contained. To the Fed Chairman in early 2007, this one little corner of the mortgage market in an otherwise booming economy was a transitory blip that booming economy would easily withstand. Just eight days before Bernanke would testify confidently before Congress, the FOMC had met to discuss their lying eyes....

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A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. After April 2, the BOND ROUT!!!! was re-energized and away went interest rates.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY.

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Mid-Year Global Markets Update

Volatility returned to markets with a vengeance in the first half of this year. 2018 started off as an extension of last year when volatility was almost wholly absent. Stocks roared out of the starting gate, up almost every day until January 26th. And then – whoosh. What took nearly a month to gain took just 6 trading days to give back and then some.

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Buybacks Get All The Macro Hate, But What About Dividends?

When it comes to the stock market and the corporate cash flow condition, our attention is usually drawn to stock repurchases. With good reason. These controversial uses of scarce internal funds are traditionally argued along the lines of management teams identifying and correcting undervalued shares. History shows, conclusively, that hasn’t really been true.

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US Vs China – Is It ‘Art Of The Deal’ Or Economic Warfare?

While monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate the headlines...

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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a slowdown?

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Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy

The bubbles in assets are supported by the invisible bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Well, folks, here we go again: we have a double-bubble economy in housing and stocks, and a third difficult-to-chart bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity.

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Gold Out Performs Stocks In 2018 and This Century By Ratio Of Two To One

– Gold outperforming stocks in 2018 and this century (see chart) – Gold up close to 2% in 2018 while S&P 500 is down 2% – Trump trade wars and Kudlow as Trump chief economic advisor is gold bullish – Given gold’s performance, Kudlow’s dismissal of gold as “end of the world insurance” is “irrational” – Market volatility could drive gold to $1,500/oz in 2018 – Holmes

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Never Mind Volatility: Systemic Risk Is Rising

So who's holding the hot potato of systemic risk now? Everyone. One of the greatest con jobs of the past 9 years is the status quo's equivalence of risk and volatility: risk = volatility: so if volatility is low, then risk is low. Wrong: volatility once reflected specific short-term aspects of risk, but measures of volatility such as the VIX have been hijacked to generate the illusion that risk is low.

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Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies

Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies. Gold at all time in eight major emerging market currencies. A stronger performance than seen when priced in USD, EUR or GBP. As world steps away from US dollar hegemony expect new gold highs in $, € and £. Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and depreciation of fiat currencies.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market persists so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. There are some minor changes within the portfolios but the overall allocation is unchanged.

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Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries

Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries. Increased efforts in green energy and advanced technology set to boosts silver’s demand. Four-year supply deficit set to increase due to fewer mine openings and discoveries. Bank manipulation may be why silver under performing. TD Securities and the Bank of Montreal expect silver to be best performing precious metal in 2018.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash.

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The Savings Rate Conundrum

The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth.

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Where To Invest When (Almost) Everything’s in a Bubble

Many things that are scarce and thus valuable cannot be bought on the global marketplace. Now that almost every asset class is in a bubble, the question of where to invest one's capital has become particularly vexing. The ashes of wealth consumed by the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown are still warm, at least to those who never recovered, and so buying assets at nosebleed valuations in the hopes of earning another 5% aren't very compelling to...

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Key Charts: Gold is Cheap and US Recession May Be Closer Than Think

Every year, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J Valek of investment and asset management company Incrementum put together the report In Gold We Trust – 160-plus pages of charts and thoughts, mostly gold-related, on the state of the world’s finances. There’s so much to look at and consider. It’s a sort of digital equivalent of a coffee-table book.

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Gold Up 74percent and One Of Top Performing Assets Since Last Market Peak 10 Years Ago

10 year anniversary of pre-Global Financial Crisis market peak in S&P 500 on October 9th. Gold up 74% since the last market peak a decade ago; 11% pa in USD, 9.4% pa in EUR and 12.4% pa in GBP. Precious metal has climbed $736/oz on Oct 9th 2007 to $1278.75 ten-years later. S&P 500’s 102% climb is thanks to asset-pumping policies by central banks, rather than value. Gold’s performance is slowly forcing mainstream to re-consider gold.

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Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red - as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs - ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here). U.S. jobs report will also be...

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Dollar & Stocks Jump; Bonds & Bullion Dump In Lowest Volatility September Ever

It has now been 318 trading days since the S&P 500 suffered a 5% drawdown - the 4th-longest streak since 1928... So everything is awesome...BUT...US 'hard' economic data has not been this weak (and seen the biggest drop) since Feb 2009...Q3 Was a Roller-Coaster...Q3 was the 8th straight quarterly gain in a row for The Dow - the longest streak since Q3 1997.

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