Tag Archive: U.S. Treasuries

Real Yields Differentials as Driver of the CHF Exchange Rate



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Our March 2013 Analysis: “Volcker Moment Redux”: Upcoming Weakness of Emerging Markets

The 2010 QE2 is a reason why many emerging markets started to slow considerably in the course of 2012. We reckon that this weakness will continue. Bizarrely QE2 helped to reduce global imbalances.

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The Fed Will Remain Gold’s Strongest Supporter For Years

In the early 1980s the Fed stopped the wage-price spiral and destroyed the gold price. Today main-stream economists have discovered that rising company profits compared to stagnating wages could an issue for the U.S. economy. For us this implies that the ultimate Fed goal will be to increase wages and inflation. Consequently the Fed has become the biggest supporter of gold and silver prices.

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The Great Disinflation Continues, How Wonderful!

Recently investors moved out of bonds in the expectation that inflation will rise soon. But strangely inflation rates have continued to fall. The great disinflation continues.

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When Will Hedge Funds and FX Traders Close their Short Yen Positions?

Hedge Funds have lost their power. This year has shown that their only remaining possibility to gain easy money  is a concerted action with some of their friends manipulating currency markets, calling it “currency wars” and creating an unholy alliance with the dovish prime minister Abe. Some of the biggest U.S. hedge-fund investors have made …

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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Helicopter Money against Animal Spirits and our Critique

The newest paper by McCulley and Poszar "Helicopter Money: or how I stopped worrying and love fiscal-monetary cooperation" presents fiscal policy and monetary policy along these two criteria

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The Biggest Bubble of the Century is Ending: Government Bond Yields

Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century? Update August 16, 2013: So, 10-year Treasury yields have ended the day closer to 3 per cent. But not as close as they … Continue reading »

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