Tag Archive: U.S. Treasuries

FX Weekly Review, May 29 – June 03: Dollar Dogged by Disappointing Data

2017-06-04

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2017-06-04

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 03
While the Euro traded in the range between 1.08 and 1.09, the dollar declined by nearly 3%. The technical indicators warn that the US dollar is stretched, but the combination of disappointing auto sales and jobs report may deny it the interest rate support needed to facilitate a resumption of the bull market.

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FX Weekly Review, May 22 – 27: Is the Dollar Going To Turn?

2017-05-29

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2017-05-29

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 27
The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-05-27

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2017-05-27

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are, however, changes within the asset classes. We are reducing the equity allocation and raising the allocation to REITs. 

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Less Than Nothing

2017-05-25

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2017-05-25

Eurodollar Futures Dimensions, 2005 - 2007
As I so often write, we still talk about 2008 because we aren’t yet done with 2008. It doesn’t seem possible to be stuck in a time warp of such immense proportions, but such are the mistakes of the last decade carrying with them just these kinds of enormous costs.

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FX Weekly Review, May 15-20: Swiss Franc recovering against EUR

2017-05-21

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2017-05-21

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, 20 May 2017
The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

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Yen is the Weakest Currency in the World over the Past Month

2017-05-15

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2017-05-15

Yen was the strongest currency in the world from mid-March to mid-April. Yen has been the weakest currency over the past month. US rates have risen relative to Japan. Japan has shifted away from QE and toward targeting interest rate.

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FX Weekly Review, May 08-13: Euro rises far above 1.09 CHF, for how long?

2017-05-13

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2017-05-13

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, May 13
The euro rose up to 1.0980. How long this momentum will last is still the question, given that it is driven by this political event and sustained by SNB interventions.

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The Wrong People Have An Innate Tendency To Stand Out

2017-05-12

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2017-05-12

Japan Government Bond Yields, January 1985 - May 2017
I don’t think Milton Friedman would have made much of chess player. For all I know he might have been a grand master or something close to that rank, but as much as his work is admirable it invites too the whole range of opposite emotion. He was the champion libertarian of the free market who rescued economics from the ravages of New Deal socialism, but in doing so he simply created the avenue for where Economics of that kind could be transposed...

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Noose Or Ratchet

2017-05-11

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2017-05-11

Quarterly Report On Bank Derivative Activities, April 1995 - April 2016
losing the book on Q4 2016 balance sheet capacity is to review essentially forex volumes. The eurodollar system over the last ten years has turned far more in this direction in addition to it becoming more Asian/Japanese. In fact, the two really go hand in hand given the native situation of Japanese banks.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-05-09

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2017-05-09

The economic reports since the last economic update were generally less than expected and disappointing. The weak growth of the last few years had been supported by autos and housing while energy has been a wildcard. When oil prices fell, starting in mid-2014 and bottoming in early 2016, economic growth suffered as the shale industry retrenched.

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FX Weekly Review, May 01 – 06: Seasonal Patterns and Yen Crosses

2017-05-07

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2017-05-07

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M
The Swiss Franc index gained 1.5% in the last month, the biggest part of it is from the last week. The trade-weighted indices the Fed tracks are updated monthly. The Bank of England calculates the effective exchange rate on a daily basis. It has not fallen since April 24.

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Clickbait: Bernanke Terrifies Stock Investors, Again

2017-05-03

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2017-05-03

Unstable GDP Revised, April 2011 - April 2017
If you are a stock investor, you should be terrified. The most disconcerting words have been uttered by the one person capable of changing the whole dynamic. After spending so many years trying to recreate the magic of the “maestro”, Ben Bernanke in retirement is still at it.

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FX Daily, May 01: May Day Calm

2017-05-01

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2017-05-01

Many financial centers are closed for May. Japanese markets were open today, but will be closed for three sessions beginning Wednesday for the Golden Week celebrations. The US dollar is narrowly mixed.

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FX Weekly Review, April 24 – 29: Dollar Remains the Fulcrum

2017-05-01

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2017-05-01

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M
Often the US dollar, as the numeraire, seems to be the main actor in the foreign exchange market. Other times, the dollar appears to be at the fulcrum between European currencies on one hand, and the dollar-bloc currencies on the other hand. Another way expressing this is whether there is a dollar-move underway or is it really more about the crosses.

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‘Dollar’ ‘Improvement’

2017-04-29

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2017-04-29

US TIC Official Buying Of US Treasury Bonds And Notes, February 2013 - February 2017
According to the headline TIC statistics, foreign central banks have in the past six months sold the fewest UST’s since the 6-month period ended November 2015. That may indicate an easing of “dollar” pressure in the private markets due to “reflation” sentiment.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-04-25

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2017-04-25

bi-weekly
It wasn’t a very good two weeks for economic data with the majority of reports disappointing. Most notable I think is that the so called “soft data” is starting to reflect reality rather than some fantasy land where President Trump enacts his entire agenda in the first 100 days of being in office. Politics is about the art of the possible and that is proving a short list for now.

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FX Weekly Review, April 17 – 22: Dollar Technicals Trying to Turn, but…

2017-04-23

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2017-04-23

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 22
While the dollar index had another bad week with a 0.75% less, the Swiss Franc currency index could accumulate the corresponding gains. Main reason is that the EUR/CHF rose over 1.07.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-04-21

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2017-04-21

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. The performance of markets in the first quarter of the year was a bit schizophrenic. Stocks performed well which one might interpret as a reflection of improving economic growth prospects. Certainly President Trump and his proxies were quick to take credit but unfortunately for the new...

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FX Daily, April 18: US Dollar Consolidates Yesterday’s Gains

2017-04-18

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2017-04-18

The US dollar is consolidating the gains scored late in the US session yesterday in response to a Financial Times interview with US Treasury Secretary Munchin who seemed to play down the strategic importance of Trump's recent complaint about the greenback's strength.

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Monetary Policy is Important, but US Fiscal Stance Moving Center Stage

2017-04-17

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2017-04-17

Monetary policy is off the table for at least the next two months. Several fiscal issues are coming to a head. Despite the GOP majority in Congress and White House, brinkmanship cannot be ruled out.

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