Tag Archive: U.S. Industrial Production

Now You Tell Us

As we move further into 2017, economic statistics will be subject to their annual benchmark revisions. High frequency data such as any accounts published on or about a single month is estimated using incomplete data. It’s just the nature of the process. Over time, more comprehensive survey results as well as upgrades to statistical processes make it necessary for these kinds of revisions.

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Industrial Symmetry

There has always been something like Newton’s third law observed in the business cycles of the US and other developed economies. In what is, or was, essentially symmetry, there had been until 2008 considerable correlation between the size, scope, and speed of any recovery and its antecedent downturn, or even slowdown. The relationship was so striking that it moved Milton Friedman to finally publish in 1993 his plucking model theory he had first...

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FX Daily, March 17: Dollar Remains Heavy

The dollar is softer against most of the major currencies to cap a poor weekly performance. The Dollar Index is posting what may be its biggest weekly loss since last November. The combination of the Federal Reserve not signaling an acceleration of normalization, while the market remains profoundly skeptical of even its current indications, and perceptions that the ECB and BOE can raise earlier than anticipated weighed on the dollar. The PBOC...

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No Acceleration In Industry, Either

Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for the latest month might change in the months ahead. Still, even with that in mind, there is no acceleration indicated for US industry.

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FX Daily, February 15: Yellen Helps the Dollar Extend Streak

The Dollar Index's ten-day rally was at risk yesterday, but Yellen's reiteration of the commitment to continue to lift rates gradually helped extend the streak to eleven sessions.This surpassed the streak around the election (November 7-November 18). With today's gains, it may draw closer to what appears to be the long streak, 14 sessions between April 30, 2012 and May 17.

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FX Daily, January 19: Dollar Gives Back Most of Yellen-Inspired Gains

While the US 10-year yield is unchanged, the dollar is consolidating its gains against the yen in a relatively narrow range of about half a big figure below JPY115.00. It has seen its gains pared more against the euro and sterling, where most of Yellen-inspired gains have been unwound. Sterling found support near $1.2250 and was bid up to $1.2335 by early in the European sessions.

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Toward A New World Order, part III

A new world order is coming of age and the transition is painful to accept for a Western middle class with a deep-seated sense of entitlement. We showed how the West feels threatened globally in Toward a New World Order and followed up explaining how this translate into domestic politics in Toward a New World Order Part II. We will now continue this series by showing how gross economic mismanagement have created the new political class that we...

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