Tag Archive: Switzerland Trade Balance

FX Daily, January 26: EUR/CHF collapses to 1.670

The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies but is confined to narrow ranges, and well-worn ranges at that, but the focus has shifted to the strong advance in equities. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrials finally rose through the psychologically-important 20k level, and the S&P 500 gapped higher to new record levels.

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Swiss Trade Surplus Shrinks in October

In October 2016, Swiss exports were down 5.6% (in real terms: - 10.4%) against the previous year. Imports rose by 1.8%YoY (in real terms: -1%). The trade surplus diminished, after months of rising exports.

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FX Daily, November 22: Bonds and Stocks Rally, Leaving Greenback to Meander

The US dollar entered a consolidative phase yesterday, and this carried into today's activity.While the foreign exchange market is sidelined as the two-week trend slows, the stocks and bonds are posting strong gains today. Equities are being led by energy and materials, as oil and industrial metals continue to advance. Bond are recovering from their recent slide.

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Swiss Quarterly Trade Surplus over 10 bn CHF for the First Time. Exports + 8.1 percent YoY, Imports +7.9 percent in Q3/2016.

In the third quarter of 2016, the Swiss quarterly trade surplus rose over 10 bn. CHF for the first time in history. Exports rose by 8.1% and Imports by 7.9%.

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Swiss Exports + 7.0 percent YoY, Imports +8.4 percent. Trade Surplus +3 bn CHF, Exporters Increase Prices

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity increases, while REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. In August 2016, Swiss exports were up 7.0% YoY (in real terms: + 1.2%) and imports 8.4% YoY (in real terms: + 5.1%).

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FX Daily, September 20: The Swiss Franc Continues To Rise.

The trade balance express if a currency is overvalued or not. The Swiss trade surplus is constant or rather rising, hence the Swiss Franc is correctly valued or rather undervalued. And the franc continues to appreciate.

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Swiss Exports + 7.9 percent YoY, Imports +11.8 percent. Trade Surplus +2.9 bn CHF, Exporters Increase Prices

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity increases, while REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to neighbours. In July 2016, Swiss Exports were up 7.9% YoY (in real terms: + 2.4%) and imports 11.8% YoY (in real terms: + 8.2%). Exporters could even raise prices, as we see in the difference...

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2015 Swiss Exports and Swiss Trade Balance: Decline at a High Level

After several years of moderate growth, exports (-2.6%) and imports (-6.9%) fell in nominal terms in 2015. Nevertheless, exports were at their third-highest level ever at CHF 202.9 billion. Prices clearly declined, particularly for imports, against the backdrop of the strong Swiss franc.

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George Dorgan bei den Jungfreisinnigen Zürich: CHF und Schweizer Wirtschaft



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Swiss customs: first time detailed trade statistics for gold available; Asia main export market



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Official Eurostat Trade Balance Massively Distorted by UK Sales Of 1464 Tonnes of Gold To Switzerland

Somebody who follows regularly the trade balance figures from Eurostat, may have noticed a sentence that was repeated in each monthly release from the Eurostat trade statistics in 2013: “The EU28 trade surplus increased significantly with Switzerland”. The reason was massive gold sales from the UK to Switzerland.

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Official Eurostat Trade Balance Massively Distorted by UK Sales Of 1464 Tonnes of Gold To Switzerland

In 2013, private investors from the UK sold net (!) 1464 tons of physical gold (and similar) for a value 44.3 billion EUR. This was 1 464 000 kilograms each at the current price of 30254€ per kilo

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SECO expects 2.2% Swiss GDP growth in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015: Implications on the Swiss Franc



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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF:Week November 18 to November 22

Fundamentals with highest importance: The HSBC Flash Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for China weakened from 50.8 to 50.4. In particular, new export orders, output prices and employment started to decrease again, while output increased. The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for the United States edged up to 54.3 (vs. 52.3 expected), a 9-month high after the …

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week November 4 to November 8

Fundamentals with highest importance: The U.S. GDP release for Q3, showed that despite the recent U.S. critique with Germany, the Americans are trying to follow the successful Germans: for the first time since Q1/2012 and Q2/2011 exports rose more than imports. GDP was up 2.8%, but not driven by consumption, it was mostly helped by …

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week October 28 to November 3

This week had a focus on – due to the government shut-down – the long awaited U.S. data: Highest importance: The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for October came in at 56.4, higher than the 55 expected. The value for new orders and for production remained above 60 despite the government shutdown. The value …

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Fundamentals, FX, Gold and CHF: Week October 21 to 25

Major Fundamental Events The week contained a lot of important fundamental events, in particular Non-Farm Payrolls and preliminary “flash” PMI readings.   Highest importance for FX rates Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) weakened to 148K, private NFPs to 126K, both against 180K expected. Especially the private NFPs were disappointing. The decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.3% …

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Fundamentals and FX Movements, Week September 23 to September 27

Weekly summary of fundamental news on FX with a focus on CHF and gold price movements. Weekly price movements The U.S. budget discussion and rather bad U.S. fundamental data made JPY and CHF the winners of the week. After weeks of improvements, the currencies of the Emerging Markets and carry trade currencies, like NZD, AUD …

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