Tag Archive: Norwegian Krone

Is Oil about to Rollover?

2016-10-18

Oil has rallied 20% since mid-September. Market may be getting ahead of itself. US rig count has risen by more than 100 in less than 4-months and inventories, seasonally adjusted are at record highs.

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Divergence: Norway and Sweden

2016-09-30

by Marc Chandler

2016-09-30

Sweden has one of the weakest of the major currencies this year. Norway has one of the strongest of the major currencies this year. The key driver is divergence of monetary policy and that divergence is likely continue into next year.

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(1.1) Currencies: Asian vs. American bloc

German spending is one factor that drives currencies in Northern Europe.

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(5.5) FX Theory: Currencies of Countries with High Economic Freedom, Immigration and Savings Must Appreciate

Economic freedom, immigration and high savings are main drivers for strong currencies. Switzerland, Singapore, Norway, Sweden and in the future even Germany are examples. Strangely most are in Europe.

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(13.1) Is the Swedish Krona a Safe-Haven?

Arguments in favor of and against the Swedish Krona,as safe-haven during the euros crisis. Extracts from tradingfloor.com

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF:Week November 18 to November 22

2013-11-23

by George Dorgan

2013-11-23

FX Price Movements November 11 to November 15 2013

Fundamentals with highest importance: The HSBC Flash Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for China weakened from 50.8 to 50.4. In particular, new export orders, output prices and employment started to decrease again, while output increased. The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for the United States edged up to 54.3 (vs. 52.3 expected), a 9-month high after the …

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week November 4 to November 8

2013-11-09

by George Dorgan

2013-11-09

November 4 to November 8 Weekly FX Rates

Fundamentals with highest importance: The U.S. GDP release for Q3, showed that despite the recent U.S. critique with Germany, the Americans are trying to follow the successful Germans: for the first time since Q1/2012 and Q2/2011 exports rose more than imports. GDP was up 2.8%, but not driven by consumption, it was mostly helped by …

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ECB rate cut creates complex situation for SNB

2013-11-08

by George Dorgan

2013-11-08

Says Thomas Jordan. Need to wait to assess impact of ECB rate cut Wasn’t totally surprised by the cut Interest rates will remain low in Switzerland Low rates may lead to property bubble risk which SNB will respond to if necessary SNB monitoring property market which is already in difficult situation I did wonder about the lack of movement in EUR/CHF yesterday considering that nearly every other euro pair took a hit. It’s either become the...

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European Industrial Production Still Contracting, Switzerland Expanding Again

2013-10-16

by George Dorgan

2013-10-16

Swiss industrial production is rather insensitive to price changes and to the recent slowing of global demand thanks to the concentration on pharmaceuticals and luxury products. Based on Eurostat’s industrial production for July and August , we compared the values from 2010 to 2013 for these two summer months. This aggregated two-months comparison is …

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Deflationary Risks? Comparing Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian Inflation and Exchange Rates

2013-01-24

by George Dorgan

2013-01-24

House Prices Germany 7 cities vs. Greece

When the Swiss National Bank introduced the 1.20 lower limit, it wanted to eliminate the deflationary risks for Switzerland. For a certain period, namely when a global recession was looming in Autumn 2011, and the Swiss franc was hovering around 1.10, this risk was really present. In this post we would like to know if …

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74.8 percent of Norwegians Say No to EU Membership

2012-10-14

by George Dorgan

2012-10-14

In the latest poll, 74.8 percent of the Norwegian population says no to EU membership, while 17.2 said they would vote yes in any referendum. 7.9 percent have not decided. Seven out of ten voters of the ruling party do not share the party’s views on the EU and would have voted no in a possible referendum, … Continue reading...

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SNB results: SNB invested 77% of the huge Q2 increase in reserves into Euros. Peg at risk ?

2012-07-31

by George Dorgan

2012-07-31

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a profit of 6.5 billion Swiss Franc for the first half year (H1). After a loss of 1.7 bln. francs in the first quarter (Q1), it had a 8.2 billion profit for the second quarter (Q2). The Q2 SNB results of 8.2 bln. CHF were less than our … Continue reading »

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The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again

2012-05-22

by George Dorgan

2012-05-22

Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …

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Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?

Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction. Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...

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The new European Save-Havens: Trade SEK/CHF and NOK/CHF

2012-01-10

by George Dorgan

2012-01-10

After the announcement of the floor in the EUR/CHF pair, many predicted the Swedish and the Norwegian Krone to take the place of the Swiss Franc as European save-haven against the Euro turmoil (http://on.ft.com/pKSJ1V). Both countries possess a low level of debt, positive trade balance and very competitive economies.

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