Tag Archive: newslettersent

Dudley in a Good Place

2017-06-27

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2017-06-27

Unemployment Versus Participation Rate, 1970 - 2017
Dear Mr. Dudley, Your recent remarks in the wake of last week’s FOMC statement were notably unhelpful. In particular, your explanation that further rate hikes are needed to prevent crashing unemployment and rising inflation stunk of rotten eggs.

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FX Daily, June 26: Italian Markets Shrug off Banking Morass and Local Election Results

2017-06-26

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2017-06-26

The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer as North American dealers return to their posts. Ideas that the UK Tories are getting close to a deal with the DUP appears to be lending sterling a modicum of support, as it tries to extend its uptrend into a fourth session. The Japanese yen is the weakest of the majors, rising equities, and yields, spurs the dollar to re-challenge last week's high near JPY111.80.

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Chinese Basis For Anti-Reflation?

2017-06-26

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2017-06-26

China Industry Drives Its Consumers
Yesterday was something of a data deluge. In the US, we had the predictable CPI dropping again, lackluster US Retail Sales, and then the FOMC’s embarrassing performance. Across the Pacific, the Chinese also reported Retail Sales as well as Industrial Production and growth of investments in Fixed Assets (FAI). When deciding which topics to cover yesterday, it was easy to leave off the Chinese portion simply because much of it didn’t change.

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Weekly Speculative Positions (as of June 20): Surge in Positioning amid Currency Contract Roll

2017-06-26

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2017-06-26

swiss franc june 26
The net short CHF position has fallen from 14.5 short to 3K contracts short (against USD). The expiration of the June contracts and the roll into September positions appears to have boosted activity in the currency futures, and may obscure the signaling effect. Of the 16 gross positions we track, speculators add to exposure in all but four positions. There speculators covered gross short Swiss franc, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollar...

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FX Weekly Preview: Drivers A Couple Things that Aren’t on Your Economic Calendar

2017-06-26

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2017-06-26

Fed, ECB and BOJ preferred inflation measures will be reported, but are unlikely to change views. Canada's Survey of Senior Loan Officers may be more important than April GDP. US healthcare bill in the Senate and likely action on steel could be the most significant events in the week ahead.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2017-06-26

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2017-06-26

EM FX ended last week on a firm note, though most were still down for the week as a whole. Commodity prices stabilized, but the balance remains fragile, in our view. We remain cautious, especially with regards to the high beta currencies such as BRL, MXN, TRY, and ZAR.

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FX Weekly Review, June 19 – June 24: Stronger Franc with Fading Euro Enthusiam

2017-06-25

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2017-06-25

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 24
Over the last month, the Swiss franc outpaced both EUR and USD. But the change is only little, the EUR fell by 0.60% and the dollar by 0.40%. The main reason for the stronger CHF is the fading enthusiasm after Macron's victory in the French elections and hence a weaker euro. Consequently SNB interventions are rising again.

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Can We See a Bubble If We’re Inside the Bubble?

2017-06-25

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2017-06-25

Mental Map
If you visit San Francisco, you will find it difficult to walk more than a few blocks in central S.F. without encountering a major construction project. It seems that every decrepit low-rise building in the city has been razed and is being replaced with a gleaming new residential tower.

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Short Summary Weekly MOF Portfolio Flows

2017-06-25

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2017-06-25

Japanese investors bought the third largest amount of foreign bonds this year last week, but still not enough to offset sales in first part of the year. Japanese investors are buying around the same amount of foreign equities as last year. Foreign investors are buying more Japanese stocks and bonds than they did on average last year.

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Go for Gold – Win a beautiful Gold Sovereign coin

2017-06-25

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2017-06-25

Gold Sovereign
The Irish Times has teamed up with GoldCore, Ireland’s first and leading gold broker, to offer you the chance to win a beautiful, freshly minted Gold Sovereign coin (2017) which contains nearly one quarter of an ounce of gold and is ‘investment grade’ 22 carat pure gold.

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Defying Labels

2017-06-25

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2017-06-25

US Industrial Production, January 2010 - June 2017
Last month US Industrial Production rose rather quickly. Gaining more than 1.1% month-over-month, it might have appeared that the US economy once dragged into downturn by manufacturing and industry was finally about to experience its belated upturn. But frustration is how it has always gone, not just in this latest phase but for all phases since around 2011. Each good month is followed immediately by a disappointing one. What should be...

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Global Asset Allocation Update:

2017-06-24

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2017-06-24

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month.

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Emerging Markets: What’s Changed

2017-06-24

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2017-06-24

MSCI announced it will include 222 China Large Cap A-shares in its Emerging Markets Index. Czech central bank is pushing out rate hike expectations. Hungary central bank eased again using unconventional measures. MSCI announced that it has launched a consultation on reclassification of Saudi Arabia from Standalone to Emerging Market status.

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Bond Yields, Inflation, and More

2017-06-24

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2017-06-24

Falling oil prices pushing down inflation expectations and lowering bond yields is the conventional narrative. It ignores that survey-based measures of inflation expectations are stable. It ignores a host of other demand factors.

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Are the World’s Billionaire Investors Actually Buying Gold?

2017-06-24

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2017-06-24

Roths
The 4 investors profiled in the infographic are: Jacob Rothschild (Lord), chairman of London-based investment trust RIT Capital Partners Plc, David Einhorn, president of Manhattan-based hedge fund firm Greenlight Capital, Ray Dalio, chairman and CIO of hedge fund firm Bridgewater Associates, Westport (Connecticut), Stanley Druckenmiller, chairman and CEO of Manthattan-based Duquesne Family Office (and formerly of Duquesne Capital Management).

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Repeat 2015; An Embarrassing Day For The Fed

2017-06-24

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2017-06-24

Today started out very badly for the FOMC. At 8:30am the Commerce Department reported “unexpectedly” weak retail sales while at the very same time the BLS published CPI statistics that were thoroughly predictable. Markets, at least credit and money markets, have gained a clearer idea what the Fed is actually doing and why. It’s not at all what the media suggests.

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FX Daily, June 23: Dollar Pares Gains Ahead of the Weekend

2017-06-23

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2017-06-23

The US dollar is trading lower against all the major currencies today, which pares its earlier gains. The greenback is holding on to small gains for the week against most of them, except the New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc and Norwegian krone.

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Positive Economic Outlook Continues Despite Tentative Recovery to Date

2017-06-23

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2017-06-23

Comparison of Forecasts of June 17 and March 17
Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – summer 2017* - Although growth in the Swiss economy has steadily accelerated over the past two quarters, it has nevertheless fallen short of expectations. A further marked increase in economic momentum is to be expected over the coming quarters given the promising outlook for the global economy and positive leading indicators.

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Only Gold Lasts Forever

2017-06-23

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2017-06-23

Temporary
his current state of play won’t last forever. Only Gold lasts forever. Some days it can feel a little rough being a gold investor. In today’s article Dominic Frisby is certainly feeling that way. Sometimes it can be all too easy to get caught up in the day to day chat around prices. Some forget that the reasons why they invested are still strong, even if it feels like the price isn’t.

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