Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, October 16: Semblance of Stability Returns

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Overview:  Although the S&P 500 was unable to sustain early gains yesterday, the largely consolidative session was part of the stabilization of equities after last week's jump in volatility.  Asia and European stocks are also cautiously steadying.  Most Asia equity markets advanced with the Nikkei's 1.25% advance most bourses higher.  China was a notable exception, The Shanghai Composite recorded new lows for the year and finished uninspiringly on...

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Devil is in the details: Italian and French deficits are not quite comparable

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

France Versus Italy: Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) 2009-2019
Italy’s structural weakness explain higher level of concern around its deficit target.Each EU member state is currently preparing 2019 budget plans for formal submission to the European Commission (EC) before mid- October. Among them, France and Italy’s budget plans have been raising eyebrows. Why is the EC concerned about Italy’s proposed 2.4% GDP deficit target for 2019 and not France’s target of 2.8%?

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You Can’t Eat Gold – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

You Actually Can Eat Gold, But Its Nutritional Value is Dubious. “You can’t eat gold.” The enemies of gold often unleash this little zinger, as if it dismisses the idea of owning gold and indeed the whole gold standard. It is a fact, you cannot eat gold. However, it dismisses nothing.

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Top US bank keen on Swiss mortgage market

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Swiss retail banks may face increased competition by a leading United States bank on the domestic housing market. The Goldman Sachs group is reportedly considering plans to enter the Swiss mortgage market, according to the NZZ am Sonntag newspaper.

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Macro Cheat Sheet

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Fred
The dollar's recovery ahead of the weekend was aided by the stabilization of the stock market, where the S&P 500 managed to close back above the psychologically important 200-day moving average. Interpolating from prices, the market does not expect the President's criticism to alter the Fed's course.

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Here’s Why the Next Recession Will Spiral Into a Depression

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Gap in pension funding 2015-2016
Here's the difference between a recession and a depression: you can't get blood from a stone, or make an insolvent entity solvent with more debt. There are two basic differences between a recession and a depression: 1. Duration: a recession typically lasts between 6 and 18 months, while a depression drags on for years or even decades, often masked by official propaganda as "slow growth" or "stagnation."

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Are Credit Spreads Still a Leading Indicator for the Stock Market?

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

US and Euro Area Spreads Compared, Sep 2016 - 2018
Seemingly out of the blue, equities suffered a few bad hair days recently. As regular readers know, we have long argued that one should expect corrections in the form of mini-crashes to strike with very little advance warning, due to issues related to market structure and the unique post “QE” environment.

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You Can’t Eat Gold, Report 14 Oct 2018

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Gold and Silver Price
“You can’t eat gold.” The enemies of gold often unleash this little zinger, as if it dismisses the idea of owning gold and indeed the whole gold standard. It is a fact, you cannot eat gold. However, it dismisses nothing. This gives us an idea. Let’s tie three facts together. One, you can’t eat gold. Two, gold is in backwardation in Switzerland. And three, speculation is a bet on the price action.

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FX Daily, October 15: Monday Blues

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Despite the pre-weekend gains that lifted the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average, global equities are moving lower today. The main news over the weekend included the US renewing its threat to impose more tariffs on China and Saudi Arabia threatening retaliation for any sanctions relating to the disappearance of the journalist Khashoggi, and the lack of a breakthrough in UK-EU negotiations.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2018: +2.6 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, September 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index fell in September 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for scrap. Compared with September 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 2.6%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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One in three Swiss flights delayed

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

The Swiss International Airlines is among the worst victims of a shortage of air traffic controllers in Europe. About 34% of all Swiss flights are delayed because of issues with air navigation safety or at the airport, the SonntagsZeitung newspaper reports quoting data from Eurocontrol.

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

There are three broad forces of movement in the week ahead: the equity market performance, political developments, and economic data. It was a tumultuous week for equities, and there was not clear or obvious trigger.  With US bond yields and equities trending higher this year, there does not seem to a reason why it ended last week. 

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How Many Households Qualify as Middle Class?

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Ownership Society
By the standards of previous generations, the middle class has been stripmined of income, assets and purchasing power. What does it take to be middle class nowadays? Defining the middle class is a parlor game, with most of the punditry referring to income brackets as the defining factor.

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Special Edition: Markets Under Pressure (VIDEO)

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

What does Alhambra Investments think about the 1300 point drop in the Dow Jones Average this week? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun has some thoughts.

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Over 27percent of Swiss workers are stressed

2018-10-14

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2018-10-14

Workplace stress in Switzerland is on the rise, particularly among younger workers – who often show up feeling unwell. The consequences are costly. The “Job Stress Index” – published by Health Promotion Switzerlandexternal link on the eve of World Mental Health Dayexternal link – has found that stress levels at work continue their upward trend.

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Gold’s Best Day In 2 Years Sees 2.5 Percent Gain As Global Stocks Sell Off – This Week’s Golden Nuggets

2018-10-14

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2018-10-14

Gold’s Best Day In 2 Years Sees 2.5 Percent Gain As Global Stocks Sell Off – This Week’s Golden Nuggets. News, Commentary, Charts and Videos You May Have Missed. Here is our Friday digest of the important news, commentary, charts and videos we were informed by this week. Market jitters and volatility have returned this week and the sell-off in US government bonds led to sharp falls on Wall Street centered on the very overvalued tech sector and the...

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Swiss Public Broadcaster to Shed Fewer Jobs than Expected

2018-10-13

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2018-10-13

The Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) will shed fewer jobs than initially stated as it embarks on a four-year CHF100 million ($100 million) cost-cutting programme. Some 200 jobs are slated to go instead of the 250 announced in June.

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The Gold Standard: Protector of Individual Liberty and Economic Prosperity

2018-10-13

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2018-10-13

A Piece of Paper Alone Cannot Secure Liberty. The idea of a constitution and/or written legislation to secure individual rights so beloved by conservatives and among many libertarians has proven to be a myth. The US Constitution and all those that have been written and ratified in its wake throughout the world have done little to protect individual liberties or keep a check on State largesse.

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FX Daily, October 12: Market Fever is Burning Itself Out Ahead of the Weekend

2018-10-12

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2018-10-12

 Equity markets are stabilizing today as Asian and European markets shrug off the failure to get traction in the US yesterday.   As everything and nothing was behind the dramatic sell-off in recent days, the same could be said about today's recovery.  Most accounts seem to be emphasizing two developments:  a report indicating that despite the talk earlier in the week, there is a recognition by the US Treasury staff that China's actions do not reach...

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Swiss Divorce Rates Continue to Climb

2018-10-12

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2018-10-12

Divorce
By 2017, 40.5% of those married in 1987 were divorced, compared to 33.2% of those married in 1977 and 24.7% of those married in 1967. Divorce in Switzerland starts early. 9.4% of those married in 1987 were divorced after five years, as were 8.1% of those married in 1977 and 4.8% of those who tied the knot in 1967.

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