Tag Archive: newsletter

Global Headwinds and Disinflationary Pressures

2020-01-11

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2020-01-11

Mexican Economy, 2006-2019
I’m going to go back to Mexico for the third day in a row. First it was imports (meaning Mexico’s exports) then automobile manufacturing and now Industrial Production. I’ll probably come back to this tomorrow when INEGI updates that last number for November 2019. For now, through October will do just fine, especially in light of where automobile production is headed (ICYMI, off the bottom of the charts).

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The owl has landed: Lagarde’s new vision for the ECB

2020-01-11

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2020-01-11

On December 12, Christine Lagarde introduced her goals and vision in her first rate-setting meeting as the new President of the ECB. On the actual policy front, there were no surprises. She remained committed to the path set by her predecessor, Mario Draghi, and kept the current monetary stimulus unchanged.

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FX Daily, January 10: Jobs Friday: Asymmetrical Risks?

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Overview:  The first full week of 2020 is ending on a quiet note, pending the often volatile US jobs report.  New record highs US equities on the back of easing geopolitical anxiety is a reflection of greater risk appetite that is evident across the capital markets.  Asia Pacific equities mostly rose today, though Chinese shares and a few of the smaller markets saw small losses. 

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Swiss unions call for ‘social agenda’ in EU relations

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Switzerland’s largest trade union group has repeated its warning that any framework deal reached with the European Union must respect measures to protect wages from cross-border competition. At the annual conference of the Swiss Trade Union Federation on Thursday, the objective of keeping wage measures in place was hammered home by group president Pierre-Yves Maillard.

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‘Farting archaeobacteria’ awarded Swiss energy prize

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Flatulent bacteria, electric vehicles and a supply network for greenhouses are among the winners of this year’s Watt d’Or competition organised by the Federal Office of Energy. “What is the link between flatulence and renewable energy?” the energy office asked. “The answer is Archie, the farting archaeobacteria.”

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The Fed Can’t Reverse the Decline of Financialization and Globalization

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, 2008-2018
The global economy and financial system are both running on the last toxic fumes of financialization and globalization. For two generations, globalization and financialization have been the two engines of global growth and soaring assets. Globalization can mean many things, but its beating heart is the arbitraging of the labor of the powerless, and commodity, environmental and tax costs by the powerful to increase their profits and wealth.

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Gold Steadies After Falls As U.S., Iran Stepping Back From the Brink

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Havens Curbed, 2019-2020
◆ Haven demand ebbs as stocks climb with easing Mideast tensions◆ Palladium retreats from fresh record but holds near $2,100. ◆ There’s still very strong demand for gold “due to a host of financial, geopolitical and monetary risks,” said Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore

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Dollar Builds on Gains as Iran Tensions Ease

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Markets have reacted positively to President Trump’s press conference yesterday, while the dollar continues to gain traction. The North American session is quiet in terms of US data. Mexico reports December CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%. German November IP was slightly better than expected but still tepid; sterling took a hit on dovish comments by outgoing BOE Governor Carney.

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FX Daily, January 9: Animal Spirits Roar Back

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Overview:  The S&P 500 recovered from a 10-day low to reach a new record high, which set the tone for the Asia Pacific and European markets today.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped by the most in a month with the Nikkei's 2% advance leading the way.  More broadly, the markets in Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, India, and Thailand all rose more than 1%.

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SNB – Devisenreserven der Nationalbank sinken

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Per Ende des Berichtsmonats lag der Wert der Devisenreserven bei 770,80 Milliarden Franken, nachdem es Ende November noch 782,95 Milliarden Franken gewesen waren. Der Gesamtbestand der Reserven (exkl. Gold) erreichte Ende Dezember 776,62 Milliarden nach 788,76 Milliarden Franken im Vormonat, wie die SNB am Donnerstag auf ihrer Internetseite mitteilte.

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Swiss Retail Sales, November 2019: -0.7 percent Nominal and 0.0 percent Real

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, November 2019
09.01.2020 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 0.7% in nominal terms in November 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss National Bank expects profit of CHF49 billion for 2019

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) expects to post an annual profit of CHF49 billion ($50.29 billion) for 2019, it said on Thursday, citing big gains from foreign bonds and stocks bought to dampen the value of the safe-haven Swiss franc. The profit, following a loss of CHF15 billion in 2018, means the central bank will pay out CHF2 billion to the Swiss government and cantons for last year and will hold discussions with the finance ministry on a possible...

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SNB – Nationalbank macht fast 50 Milliarden Franken Gewinn

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) hat gemäss provisorischen Berechnungen im Geschäftsjahr 2019 einen Gewinn von rund 49 Milliarden Franken erzielt. Der Löwenanteil des Gewinns entfiel mit 40 Milliarden auf die Fremdwährungspositionen. Auf dem Goldbestand resultierte derweil ein Bewertungsgewinn von 6,9 Milliarden, und der Erfolg auf den Frankenpositionen (mehrheitlich Negativzinsen) belief sich auf rund 2 Milliarden Franken.

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The Real Trade Dilemma

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

US Imports of Goods, NSA 2016-2019
When I write that there are no winners around the world, what I mean is more comprehensive than just the trade wars. On that one narrow account, of course there are winners and losers. The Chinese are big losers, as the Census Bureau numbers plainly show (as well as China’s own). But even the winners of the trade wars find themselves wondering where all the spoils are.

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FX Daily, January 8: Hopes of De-Escalation Help Markets Stabilize

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

The Iranian retaliatory missile strike on Iraqi-bases housing US forces initially sparked a dramatic risk-off response throughout the capital markets. The muted response by the US coupled with signals from Tehran that it had "concluded" its proportionate measures saw the markets retrace the initial reaction. It was too late for equities in the Asia Pacific region, and several markets (Japan, China, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand) fell more than 1%.

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Swiss rents fall but property prices increase in 2019

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

Rents in Switzerland fell by an average of 0.5% last year but some regions bucked the trend. Last year was a good one for tenants, according to the Swiss Real Estate Offer Indexexternal link, which was published on Tuesday. December alone saw rents dropping 0.4% on average. The most significant drops were in central Switzerland (-1.7%), the Lake Geneva region (-1.1%) and northwestern Switzerland (-0.9%).

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More Trends That Ended 2019 The Wrong Way

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

US Trade, SA 2016-2019
Auto sales in 2019 ended on a skid. Still, the year as a whole wasn’t nearly as bad as many had feared. Last year got off on the wrong foot in the aftermath of 2018’s landmine, with auto sales like consumer spending down pretty sharply to begin it. Spending did rebound in mid-year if only somewhat, enough, though, to add a little more to the worst-is-behind-us narrative which finished off 2019.

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The S&P’s Biggest Bear Capitulates

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

First it was Dennis Gartman shutting down his newsletter after more than three decades, lamenting a market that no longer made any sense (a lament shared by Deutsche Bank's Aleksanda Kocic), and now the market's QE4-driven meltup has forced Wall Street's biggest sellside bear to capitulate on his November call that the market will drop in 2020; instead UBS' head of US equity strategy, Francois Trahan, has joined the bullish herd hiking his year-end...

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Gold’s New Bull Market and Why $7,000 Per Ounce Is “Logical” (Part I)

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

◆ Gold could rise to more than $7,000 an ounce according to respected MoneyWeek contributor and fund manager Charlie Morris (Part I today and Part II tomorrow). A year ago, in my occasional free newsletter, Atlas Pulse, I upgraded gold – which was trading at $1,239 an ounce at that point – to “bull market” status for the first time since 2012.

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FX Daily, January 7: Geopolitical Angst Eases, Helps Equities and Underpins the Greenback

2020-01-07

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2020-01-07

Overview: Without fresh escalation, investors cannot maintain a heightened sense of geopolitical anxiety.  The recovery of US shares yesterday set the tone for today's rebound in Asia and Europe. All the equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied today, led by a 1.6% rally in Japan and a nearly 1.4% advance in Australia, with the exception of Taiwan.

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