Tag Archive: newsletter

August Survey Data and Beyond

2020-08-17

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2020-08-17

Economists are often lampooned because of their inability to forecast changes in the business cycle. But the pandemic helped them overcome the challenge this time. A record contraction in Q2 was anticipated before in March. Similarly, economists generally expected the recovery after the March-April body blow.

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What You Will Find When You Follow the Money

2020-08-17

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2020-08-17

Lockdown Disaster. It has been a rough go for California Governor Gavin Newsom. Late last week it was revealed that the state Department of Public Health had tickled the poodle on its COVID-19 record keeping. Somehow the bureaucrats in Sacramento under-counted new corona-virus cases by as many as 300,000.

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Swiss luxury watch retailer Bucherer to shed jobs

2020-08-16

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2020-08-16

The leading Swiss luxury watch and jewellery company Bucherer has announced it plans to slash 370 of its 2,400 jobs worldwide due to the coronavirus crisis hitting tourism.

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Value of gold stored by Irish metals broker GoldCore surges past €100m

2020-08-16

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2020-08-16

Investment in gold has risen during pandemic. The value of gold coins and bars stored for clients by Irish precious metals broker GoldCore has surged 68pc so far this year to more than €100m. The value of gold coins and bars stored for clients by Irish precious metals broker GoldCore has surged 68pc so far this year to more than €100m. Gold prices last week topped the $2,000-per-ounce level for the first time as investors seek havens...

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Free trade deals save Switzerland billions, study finds

2020-08-15

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2020-08-15

Swiss consumers and importers saved CHF2.5 billion ($2.7 billion) in 2018 thanks to lower customs duties as part of free trade agreements, a study has revealed.

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Trump’s Payroll Tax Order Is Good Politics, but Doesn’t Offer Much Tax Relief

2020-08-15

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2020-08-15

Percentage of Federal Tax Receipts by Source
President Trump issued a new executive order on August 8 directing the Treasury Department to defer the 6.2 percent Social Security tax on wages for employees making less than about $100,000 a year. The suspension on collections will be in effect from September 1 through December 31. 

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FX Daily, August 14: Consolidation Featured Ahead of the Weekend

2020-08-14

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2020-08-14

The equity rally is stalling ahead of the weekend. Most markets in the Asia Pacific region eased, though China and Australia advanced. Japanese shares were mixed. The Nikkei, though advanced for the fourth consecutive session, while the Topis slipped.

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Banks braced as pandemic poses biggest test since financial crisis

2020-08-14

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2020-08-14

During the depths of the coronavirus crisis in Europe in late March, Sergio Ermotti remembers sitting in his home study in Lugano, reflecting on the latest financial meltdown to engulf his career as a banker.

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Fama 2: No Inflation For Old Central Banks

2020-08-14

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2020-08-14

CPI less Food & Energy, 1983-2020
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the core CPI in July 2020 jumped by the most (+0.62%) in almost thirty years. After having dropped month-over-month for three months in a row for the first time in its history, it has posted back to back gains the latest of which pushing the index back above its February level.

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Are Negative Rates a Natural Historical Development?

2020-08-14

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2020-08-14

Negative Yielded Debt Denominated in Swiss Francs
Negative interest rates have long since become a reality. But we are not talking about negative real interest rates. This is the case when the return on an investment is lower than the officially stated inflation rate. In today's context, negative interest rates are rather negative nominal interest rates; that is, the nominal interest rate is below 0 percent.

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FX Daily, August 13: Dollar Remains Offered

2020-08-13

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2020-08-13

The poor price action on Tuesday in the S&P 500 was shrugged off, and new highs for the recovery were made as the record high nears. The dollar, on the other hand, seemed to find plenty of sellers against most of the major currencies. The yen was a notable exception.

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Swiss government wants extra CHF770 million to tackle coronavirus

2020-08-13

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2020-08-13

The Swiss government has asked for an extra CHF770 million ($841 million) in funds to tackle the coronavirus fallout. This comes on top of the CHF31 billion in bailout funds approved by parliament since March.

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Coronavirus: new cases in Switzerland reach highest level since April

2020-08-13

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2020-08-13

Today, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) announced 274 new recorded cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection over 24 hours. The last time Switzerland had a daily case number above this was on 19 April 2020 when 336 new cases were recorded.

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Eugene Fama’s Efficient View of Stimulus Porn

2020-08-13

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2020-08-13

The Real GDP Problem, 1988-2018
The key word in the whole thing is “bias.” For a very long time, people working in and around the finance industry have sought to gain tremendous advantages. No explanation for the motive is required. Charts, waves, technical (sounding) analysis and so on.

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Kamala Harris Is Basically Obama-Clinton 2.0, but Worse

2020-08-13

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2020-08-13

No doubt, many of Harris's detractors will call her radical or a tool of the far left. The reality is actually far more alarming.

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Perfect Storm for Precious Metals Leads to Price Correction

2020-08-13

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2020-08-13

Gold Price Chart
Gold fell by nearly 6% yesterday and silver by a whopping 15%, the largest one day loss in over 7 years. The futures market saw massive volumes of selling with over 1.6 bn ounces of silver contracts sold yesterday. That’s a value of over $40 billion.

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FX Daily, August 12: Dollar was Sold in Asia and Europe, but is Poised to Bounce in North America

2020-08-12

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2020-08-12

The biggest rise in the US 10-year yield in a couple of months, as the record quarterly refunding, got underway may have helped stabilize the dollar after an earlier decline. The S&P 500 threatened to extend its advance for the eighth consecutive session yesterday, but a late sell-off stopped it cold after scaling to new five-month highs.

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Silver Supply & Demand Still Strong at $29, 11 Aug

2020-08-12

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2020-08-12

Silver Basis, Silver Price, 10 August
And, *bam!* Just like that, silver sells for $29. It seems so simple, so obvious, so black-and-white. Seeing the price chart in recent weeks, you wouldn’t know that silver speculators have been waiting for this moment since March, 2013 (when silver crossed the $29 line to the downside, and has not looked back until now).

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Dollar Softens, Equities Rise as Markets Ignore the Negatives

2020-08-12

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2020-08-12

Real Yields and Gold, 2018-2020
Markets seem to be increasingly desensitized to the usual negative drivers; the dollar is under pressure again. Stimulus talks remain stalled; reports suggest Trump is mulling a capital gains tax cut of some sort. US data highlight today will be July PPI; US Treasury begins its record $112 bln quarterly refunding.

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Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder

2020-08-12

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2020-08-12

It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to try and fill in this massive hole?The...

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