Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Dollar Consolidates, Weakness to Resume

Despite rising infections worldwide, the virus news stream has turned positive; the dollar is consolidating its gains today. With the 10-year yield rising to near 1.0%, US financial conditions are tightening; the Fed released its Financial Stability report yesterday and it pulled no punches; with the Fed media embargo over, many officials will speak today.

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Vaccine and Split Government

The interplay of a vaccine-driven reflation rally and the (likely) split government in the US are emerging as the driving themes for markets in the months ahead.  We think reflation will win out in the end, but it could manifest itself differently this time around.

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How Much Taxes Will Retirees Owe on Their Retirement Income

Planning for retirement. We spend most of our working career preparing for it, saving for it, covering every contingency. When you finally wave goodbye to the company, you’re ready for all that planning to take over. But does your planning take into account the taxes you’ll have to pay on your retirement income? It’s one of the biggest retirement planning mistakes people make.

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No Wonder the Super-Rich Love Inflation

Asset inflation benefits the super-rich more than anyone else because they own the vast majority of these assets. With the reflation euphoria running full blast, maybe central banks will finally get all that inflation they've been pining for. So let's ask cui bono--who will benefit from inflation?

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Forget GOAT, Look at GBOAT: The Greatest Bubble Of All Time

So enjoy the GBOAT (greatest bubble of all time) but watch the clock. Sports fans debate who qualifies as GOAT--the greatest of all time: in hoops, Kobe, Jordan, Kareem, Magic; in boxing, Ali, and so forth. What we have today is GBOAT--the greatest bubble of all time That it's GOAT is beyond doubt, as the charts below reveal.

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Good Payrolls Still Say Slowdown

The payroll report for the month of October 2020 was a very good one. This shouldn’t be surprising, perfect BLS publications appear with regularity even during the most challenging of circumstances. Headlines and underneath, everything looked fine last month.

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Here’s Our Historical Analogy Menu: Rome, the USSR or Revolutionary France

The core dynamic is ultimately the loss of social cohesion within the ruling elites and in the social order at large. There's a definite end of days feeling to the euphoria that the world didn't end on November 3. And what better way to celebrate the victory of what passes for normalcy with a manic stock market rally?

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Markets Gyrate Ahead of Protracted Period of Uncertainty

Markets likely facing an extended period of uncertainty; the dollar is seeing some safe haven bid but is well off its highs. Despite President Trump’s claim of victory and his call to halt vote counting and go to the Supreme Court, it’s important to emphasize that the election is simply not over yet; asset prices are sending a cacophony of signals as investors struggle to price multiple possibilities.

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Counting The Corroborated Stall, Not The Coming Lawfare Election Mess

While we wait for the electoral count to be sorted out by what we hope are competent and honest people (not holding our breath), there’s a greater muddle growing where it actually counts and where it’s never fully nor properly accounted. By a large and growing number of accounts, the US economy’s rebound seems to have stalled out back around June or July, an inflection unrelated to COVID case counts, too.

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What We Don’t Elect Matters Most: Central Banking and the Permanent Government

We're Number One in wealth, income and power inequality, yea for the Fed and the Empire! If we avert our eyes from the electoral battle on the blood-soaked sand of the Coliseum and look behind the screen, we find the powers that matter are not elected: our owned by a few big banks Federal Reserve, run by a handful of technocrats, and the immense National Security State, a.k.a. the Permanent Government.

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Meanwhile, Outside Today’s DC

With all eyes on Washington DC, today, everyone should instead be focused on Europe. As we’ve written for nearly three years now, for nearly three years Europe has been at the unfortunate forefront of Euro$ #4. We could argue about whether coming out of GFC2 back in March pushed everything into a Reflation #4 – possible – or if this is still just one three-yearlong squeeze of a global dollar shortage.

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Our Imperial Presidency

Regardless of who holds the office, America's Imperial Project and its Imperial Presidency are due for a grand reckoning. While elections and party politics generate the emotions and headlines, the truly consequential change in American governance has been the ascendancy of the Imperial Presidency over the past 75 years, since the end of World War II.

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FOMC Preview: Coronavirus Daily Change

The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Thursday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in Q4.

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Dollar Firm at Start of Very Eventful Week

Oil prices continue their rapid decline due to both supply and demand concerns; the dollar is trading at the top end of recent trading ranges. This is one of the most eventful weeks for the markets in recent memory; one day ahead of the elections, the implied odds remain roughly at the same levels as they have been for the last few weeks; October ISM manufacturing PMI will start the ball rolling for a key US data week.

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17 States that Charge Estate or Inheritance Taxes

Death tax, inheritance tax, estate tax—call it what you will, they all mean that some government entity wants to put its hand in your pocket or your heirs’ pockets, after your demise.

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Dollar Bid as Markets Steady Ahead of ECB Decision

Global equity markets are gaining limited traction today after yesterday’s bloodbath; that sell-off helped test a now prevalent hedging thesis for investors. The dollar remains bid; US Q3 GDP data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims will be reported.

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ALICE Doesn’t Work Here Anymore

What the political class and the Financial Nobility don't yet grasp is that ALICE will never go back to her insecure, low-wage job, ever.

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What’s Going On, And Why Late August?

This isn’t about COVID. It’s been building since the end of August, a shift in mood, perception, and reality that began turning things several months before even then. With markets fickle yet again, a lot today, what’s going on here?

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Flying Blind: Clueless about Risk, We’re Speeding Toward Systemic Failure

For all these reasons, the risks of systemic collapse are much higher than commonly anticipated. There's an irony in discussing risk: since we all have an instinctive reaction to visible risk, we think we understand it.

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ECB Preview

The ECB meets Thursday and is widely expected to stand pat until the next meeting. Macro forecasts won’t be updated until the December 10 meeting, but the bank will have to acknowledge the deteriorating outlook now.

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