Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

America’s Metastasizing Class Wars

Class wars are the inevitable result of an economic system in which 'anything goes if you're rich enough and winners take most'. The traditional class war has been waged between wage-earners (who sell their labor) and their employers (owners of capital and the means of production).

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This Has To Be A Joke, Because If It’s Not…

After thinking about it all day, I’m still not quite sure this isn’t a joke; a high-brow commitment of utterly brilliant performance art, the kind of Four-D masterpiece of hilarious deception that Andy Kaufman would’ve gone nuts over. I mean, it has to be, right?I’m talking, of course, about Jackson Hole and Jay Powell’s reportedly genius masterstroke.

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Not This Again: Too Many Treasuries?

Tomorrow, the Treasury Department is going to announce the results of its latest bond auction. A truly massive one, $47 billion are being offered of CAH4’s notes dated August 31, 2020, maturing out in August 31, 2027. In other words, the belly of the belly, the 7s.We’ve already seen them drop for two note auctions this week, both equally sizable.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020 (VIDEO)

Monthly macro monitor review of August 2020 with Bob Williams and Joe Calhoun.

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Meaning Mexico

It took some doing, and some time, but Mexico has managed to bring its car production back up to more normal levels. For two months, there had been practically zero automaking in one of the biggest auto-producing nations. Getting back near where things left off, however, isn’t exactly a “V” shaped recovery; it’s only halfway.

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*These* Are The Real Huge Jobs Numbers, And They Will Make Your Blood Run Cold

There is simply no way to spin these figures as anything good. Not just the usual ones were talking about here, but more so some new data that you probably haven’t seen before. Beginning with the regular, it doesn’t matter that the level of initial jobless claims has declined substantially over the past few weeks

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Will Skilled Hands-On Labor Finally Become More Valuable?

The sands beneath what's scarce and what's over-abundant are shifting. On a recent visit to the welding shop where my niece's husband works, I asked him if they had enough welders for their workload.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020

One of the advantages we enjoy here at Alhambra is the opportunity to interact with a lot of investors. We talk to hundreds of individual investors on a monthly basis, giving us a front-row seat to everyone’s fear and greed. Economic data tells us about the past, which isn’t particularly useful for investors focused on the future.

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Part 2 of June TIC: The Dollar Why

Before getting into the why of the dollar’s stubbornly high exchange value in the face of so much “money printing”, we need to first go back and undertake a decent enough review of the guts maybe even the central focus of the global (euro)dollar system.

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Our Systemic Drift to Collapse

Thus do the lazy complacent passengers drift inexorably toward the cataracts of collapse just ahead. The boat ride down to the waterfall of systemic collapse is not dramatic, it's lazy drifting: a lazy complacency that doing more of what worked in the past will work again, and an equally lazy disregard for how far the system has drifted from the point when things actually worked.

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Where Has All the Carry Gone?

Despite broad-based dollar weakness, EM currencies have not fully participated in the risk on environment that’s now in place. The good news is that fundamentals matter again. The bad news is that there are a lot of EM countries with bad fundamentals, and the secular decline in carry no longer gives these weaklings any cover.

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Part 1 of June TIC: The Dollar What

While the world is taking the smallest of baby steps in the right direction, mostly it’s been related to the part of the eurodollar system that everyone can see. Not bank reserves and the Fed’s “money printing”, though you can see them and we’re told to obsess about them those things don’t matter.

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The Empire Will Strike Back: Dollar Supremacy Is the Fed’s Imperial Mandate

Triffin's Paradox demands painful trade-offs to issue a reserve currency, and it demands the issuing central bank serve two competing audiences and markets. Judging by the headlines and pundit chatter, the U.S. dollar is about to slide directly to zero. This sense of certitude is interesting, given that no empire prospered by devaluing its currency. 

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Here’s Why the “Impossible” Economic Collapse Is Unavoidable

This is why denormalization is an extinction event for much of our high-cost, high-complexity, heavily regulated economy. A collapse of major chunks of the economy is widely viewed as "impossible" because the federal government can borrow and spend unlimited amounts of money because the Federal Reserve can create unlimited amounts of money: the government borrows $1 trillion by selling $1 trillion in Treasury bonds, the Fed prints $1 trillion...

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It Was Bad In The Other Sense, So Now What?

According to the latest figures, Japan has tallied 56,074 total coronavirus cases since the outbreak began, leading to the death of an estimated 1,103 Japanese citizens. Out of a total population north of 125 million, it’s hugely incongruous.

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It’s Do-or-Die, Deep State: Either Strangle the Stock Market Rally Now or Cede the Election to Trump

With only 56 trading days and fewer than 80 calendar days to the election, the Deep State camps seeking to torpedo Trump's re-election have reached the do-or-die point. Back in June I speculated that the only way the Deep State could deep-six Trump's re-election was to sink the stock market rally, which the president has long touted as evidence of his economic leadership.

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Fama 2: No Inflation For Old Central Banks

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the core CPI in July 2020 jumped by the most (+0.62%) in almost thirty years. After having dropped month-over-month for three months in a row for the first time in its history, it has posted back to back gains the latest of which pushing the index back above its February level.

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Eugene Fama’s Efficient View of Stimulus Porn

The key word in the whole thing is “bias.” For a very long time, people working in and around the finance industry have sought to gain tremendous advantages. No explanation for the motive is required. Charts, waves, technical (sounding) analysis and so on.

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Dollar Softens, Equities Rise as Markets Ignore the Negatives

Markets seem to be increasingly desensitized to the usual negative drivers; the dollar is under pressure again. Stimulus talks remain stalled; reports suggest Trump is mulling a capital gains tax cut of some sort. US data highlight today will be July PPI; US Treasury begins its record $112 bln quarterly refunding.

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Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder

It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to try and fill in this massive hole?The...

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