Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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There’s Two Sides To Synchronize

2021-03-03

The offside of “synchronized” is pretty obvious when you consider all possibilities. In economic terms, synchronized growth would mean if the bulk of the economy starts moving forward, we’d expect the rest to follow with only a slight lag. That’s the upside of harmonized systems, the period everyone hopes and cheers for.

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2021-03-02

by Thomas Costerg

Lundi 1 mars 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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Three Things About Today’s UST Sell-off, Beginning With Fedwire

2021-02-28

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-28

Three relatively quick observations surrounding today’s UST selloff.1. The intensity. Reflation is the underlying short run basis, but there is ample reason to suspect quite a bit more than that alone given the unexpected interruption in Fedwire yesterday.

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Iran v America: what’s behind the feud? | The Economist

2021-02-27

by The Economist

Iran and America’s decades-long feud has led to hostage-taking, sanctions and proxy wars that have shaped the Middle East. What is behind the feud, and can it be resolved? Chapters 00:00 - The history of the feud 01:01 - 1951-53: The Persian Oil Crisis 02:04 - The 1953 coup 04:11 - 1978-1979: The Iranian revolution 05:12 - 1979-81: The hostage crisis 06:58 - 1980-88: The Iraq-Iran war 09:06 - 1983: US embassy bombing 09:50 - Hizbullah 11:00 - The...

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Nine Percent of GDP Fiscal, Ha! Try Forty

2021-02-25

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-25

Fear of the ultra-inflationary aspects of fiscal overdrive. This is the current message, but according to what basis? Bigger is better, therefore if the last one didn’t work then the much larger next one absolutely will. So long as you forget there was a last one and when that prior version had been announced it was also given the same benefit of the doubt.

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For The Dollar, Not How Much But How Long Therefore How Familiar

2021-02-24

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-24

Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to facilitate more direct control of the company by the federal...

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What Might Be In Another Market-based Yield Curve Twist?

2021-02-23

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-23

Pro forma CES Private Payrolls, 2020-2021

With the UST yield curve currently undergoing its own market-based twist, it’s worth investigating a couple potential reasons for it. On the one hand, the long end, clear cut reflation: markets are not, as is commonly told right now, pricing 1979 Great Inflation #2, rather how the next few years may not be as bad (deflationary) as once thought a few months ago.

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Weekly Market Pulse – Real Rates Finally Make A Move

2021-02-22

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2021-02-22

Last week was only four days due to the President’s day holiday but it was eventful. The big news of the week was the spike in interest rates, which according to the press reports I read, “came out of nowhere”. In other words, the writers couldn’t find an obvious cause for a 14 basis point rise in the 10 year Treasury note yield so they just chalked it up to mystery.

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 3: Bill’s Reading On Reflation, And Other Charted Potpourri

2021-02-21

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-21

46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac.

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How will covid-19 change travel? | The Economist

2021-02-20

by The Economist

The covid-19 pandemic has devastated the travel industry. But as vaccines are rolled out and global travel slowly picks up, how will the industry evolve, and will holidays ever be the same again? Read more here: https://econ.st/3aA2row Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage: https://econ.st/3aor3kg Read our special report about the future of tourism: https://econ.st/3bnP1vc Read about why...

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Two Seemingly Opposite Ends Of The Inflation Debate Come Together

2021-02-19

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-19

US Import Price Index All Commedities, 2019-2021

It’s worth taking a look at a couple of extremes, and the putting each into wider context of inflation/deflation. As you no doubt surmise, only one is receiving much mainstream attention. The other continues to be overshadowed by…anything else.

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Uncle Sam Was Back Having Consumers’ Backs

2021-02-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-18

American consumers were back in action in January 2021. The “unemployment cliff” along with the slowdown and contraction in the labor market during the last quarter of 2020 had left retail sales falling backward with employment. Seasonally-adjusted, total retail spending had declined for three straight months to end last year.

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Christine Lagarde: How covid-19 will shape Europe | The Economist

2021-02-12

by The Economist

Europe has been widely criticised for its slow response to the covid-19 pandemic. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, discusses the long-term damage and whether things might have been different had there been more female leaders. Chapter titles 00:00 - Covid-19 in Europe 00:52 - How covid-19 worsens inequality 03:35 - Why female leaders have performed better 05:10 - How to have more female leaders 06:38 - Europe’s stimulus...

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