Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Who will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup? | The Economist

The 2018 FIFA World Cup has begun, but who is likely to win? The Economist has scoured historical data and analysed dozens of factors to try to determine which country’s team will lift the iconic trophy.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO

Interview with Joe Calhoun about BiWeekly Economic Review 15/06/2018.

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A Slight Hint Of A 2011 Feel

Whenever a big bank is rumored to be in unexpected merger talks, that’s always a good sign, right? The name Deutsche Bank keeps popping up as it has for several years now, this is merely representative of what’s wrong inside of a global system that can’t ever get fixed. In this one case, we have a couple of perpetuated conventional myths colliding into what is still potentially grave misfortune.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies.  We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact.  Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point. 

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

The Reserve Bank of India hiked rates for the first time since 2014. Malaysia’s central bank governor resigned. Czech central bank tilted more hawkish. Russia central bank tilted more dovish. Argentina got a $50 bln standby program from the IMF.

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The Three Crises That Will Synchronize a Global Meltdown by 2025

We're going to get a synchronized global dynamic, but it won't be "growth" and stability, it will be DeGrowth and instability. To understand the synchronized global meltdown that is on tap for the 2021-2025 period, we must first stipulate the relationship of "money" to energy:"money" is nothing more than a claim on future energy. If there's no energy available to fuel the global economy, "money" will have little value.

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US Trade Settles Down Again

US trade is further leveling off after several months of artificial intrusions. On the import side, in particular, first was a very large and obvious boost following last year’s big hurricanes along the Gulf Coast. Starting in September 2017, for four months the value of imported goods jumped by an enormous 8.3% (revised, seasonally-adjusted). Most of the bump related to consumer and capital goods.

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Can technology save the rarest creatures on the planet? | The Economist

A “Facebook for fish” is being used to try and save the critically-endangered Giant Sea Bass. This is just one of the pioneering experiments being carried out by marine biologist, Douglas McCauley, in his mission to protect ocean life. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xOgV2D For more from Economist Films visit: …

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Does Anyone Else See a Giant Bear Flag in the S&P 500?

We all know the game is rigged, but strange things occasionally upset the "easy money bet." "Reality" is in the eye of the beholder, especially when it comes to technical analysis and economic tea leaves.

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Can a cure for diabetes be found through surgery? | The Economist

Diabetes is the fastest growing health crisis of our time. Could a common surgical procedure bolster hopes of finding a cure? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2M2143H Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: https://econ.st/2M1rxOZ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk …

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets?

In the last update I wondered if growth expectations – and growth – were breaking out to the upside. 10 year Treasury yields were well over the 3% threshold that seemed so ominous and TIPS yields were nearing 1%, a level not seen since early 2011. It looked like we might finally move to a new higher level of growth. Or maybe not.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week. Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS. US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO

Interview with Joe Calhoun about BiWeekly Economic Review 01/06/2018.

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Burrito Index Update: Burrito Cost Triples, Official Inflation Up 43 percent from 2001

Welcome to debt-serfdom, the only possible output of the soaring cost of living. Long-time readers may recall the Burrito Index, my real-world measure of inflation. The Burrito Index: Consumer Prices Have Soared 160% Since 2001 (August 1, 2016). The Burrito Index tracks the cost of a regular burrito since 2001. Since we keep detailed records of expenses (a necessity if you’re a self-employed free-lance writer), I can track the cost of a regular...

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Sexism and the English language | The Economist

Sexism is rife in language. A woman may be described as “bossy”, while a man is more likely to be “assertive”. The Economist’s language expert Lane Greene explores the gender stereotypes used in everyday speech. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For …

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

EM FX has started the week mixed.  Some relief was seen as US rates stalled out last week, but this Friday’s jobs number could be key for the next leg of this dollar rally.  On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige book for the upcoming June 13 FOMC meeting, where a 25 bp hike is widely expected.  We believe EM FX remains vulnerable to further losses.

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America 2018: Dicier by the Day

Scrape all this putrid excrescence off and we're left with a non-fantasy reality: everything is getting dicier by the day. If we look beneath the cheery chatter of the financial media and the tiresomely repetitive Russian collusion narrative (that's unraveling as the Ministry of Propaganda's machinations are exposed), we find that America in 2018 is dicier by the day.

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Should there be curbs on free speech? | The Economist

Free speech is at the heart of a healthy democracy, but in recent years it has come under attack. Controversial views are being silenced to protect vulnerable people from harm. The Economist’s Jon Fasman offers his take on how societies should react. #OpenFuture Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2J1OgIw Daily Watch: …

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How Systems Collapse

This is how systems collapse: faith in the visible surface of abundance reigns supreme, and the fragility of the buffers goes unnoticed. I often discuss systems and systemic collapse, and I've drawn up a little diagram to illustrate a key dynamic in systemic collapse. The key concepts here are stability and buffers. Though complex systems are never static, but they can be stable: that is, they ebb and flow within relatively stable boundaries...

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