Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

What Happens When Rampant Asset Inflation Ends?

Yesterday I explained why Revealing the Real Rate of Inflation Would Crash the System. If asset inflation ceases, the net result would be the same: systemic collapse. Why is this so? In effect, central banks and states have masked the devastating stagnation of real income by encouraging households to take on debt to augment declining income and by inflating assets via quantitative easing and lowering interest rates and bond yields to near-zero (or...

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM FX gained a little traction on Friday, but capped a week of steady losses. As the US election and FOMC meeting next month get closer, we believe markets and risk appetite will remain volatile. So far, September data from the US does not suggest any urgency to hike in November, and so we continue to believe that December is most likely for another hike.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Stock Markets Emerging Markets October 12
Fitch upgraded Taiwan by a notch. Thailand has a new king. South Africa’s Finance Minister Gordhan has been summoned to appear in court to face charges. Brazil’s Congress voted to approve a constitutional amendment to freeze government spending in real terms for at least the next 10 years. Brazil’s Petrobras cut fuel prices and introduced a new pricing mechanism.

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Where Will All the Money Go When All Three Market Bubbles Pop?

Since the stock, bond and real estate markets are all correlated, it's a question with no easy answer. Everyone who's not paid to be in denial knows stocks, bonds and real estate are in bubbles of one sort or another. Real estate is either an echo bubble or a bubble that exceeds the previous bubble, depending on how attractive the market is to hot-money investors.

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Great Graphic: China’s PPI and Commodities

China's PPI rose for the first time in four years. It is related to the rise in commodities. Yet there are good reasons there is not a perfect fit between China's PPI and commodity prices. US and UK CPI to be reported next week, risk is on the upside.

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Ending a Taking Economy and Creating a Giving Economy (Part 1)

The world can no longer afford a taking economy, where “make a killing” is the motto. Together we need to create a giving and sharing economy that helps us all “make a living.” This essay will unveil the present unjust and unworkable economic system that punishes responsibility and rewards fraud.

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This Is How Quiet Fascism Works

So my little-visited Wikipedia entry was minding its own business, not bothering anyone, until I dared to criticize the Clinton Foundation. The next day, my Wikipedia entry was taken out and shot by a mysterious "editor." It was just coincidence, right, that my Wikipedia entry had been available for years without offending anyone, and then suddenly it's deleted the day after I dared to criticize the Clinton Foundation.

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USA 2017-2020: An Ungovernable Nation?

The U.S. needs to overthrow a corrupt, self-serving elite. Regardless of who wins the presidency, a much larger question looms: will the U.S. be ungovernable 2017-2020? There are multiple sources of the question.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

Despite the weaker than expected US jobs report, the dollar remains firm and EM is ending the week on a soft note. The main culprit was higher US rates, with the 2-year yield moving up to 0.85% and is the highest since early June. Concerns about Brexit impact and as well the health of European banks remain ongoing and could weigh on risk sentiment this coming week. Lastly, oil may come under more pressure after Russia said it sees no deal with...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Brazil (+5.3%), Czech Republic (+4.4%), and Hungary (+3.0%) have outperformed this week, while Peru (-3.3%), UAE (-2.2%), and South Africa (-1.4%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI E...

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It’s Time We Crush the Putrid Roach Motels of Philanthro-Crony-Capitalism, Starting with the Clinton Foundation

Granted, the fantasy of philanthrocapitalism is appealing: take a bunch of fabulously successful entrepreneurial billionaires, grant their foundations tax-free status, and then unleash them on the world as philanthropists who will solve problems by applying the incentives of capitalism.

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The Education Bubble: Is A Harvard MBA Worth $500,000?

College students are back at their desks this month facing bleak prospects. With tightening job markets leaving kids with no place else to go, universities continue to jack up fees. The upshot is growing signs that America is in the midst of an “education bubble,” just as big as those in stock, bond, and real estate markets. Case in point: four years at Harvard University now costs nearly $250,000 [1]. If you want an MBA, add another $200,000.

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Is The US Dollar Set To Soar?

Hating the U.S. dollar offers the same rewards as hating a dominant sports team: it feels righteous to root for the underdogs, but it's generally unwise to let that enthusiasm become the basis of one's bets. Personally, I favor the emergence of non-state reserve currencies, for example, blockchain crypto-currencies or precious-metal-backed private currencies--currencies which can't be devalued by self-serving central banks or the private elites...

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Fun with Fake Statistics: The 5 percent “Increase” in Median Household Income Is Pure Illusion

Supporters of the status quo nearly wet their pants with joy when the Census Bureau reported that real (adjusted for inflation) median household income rose 5.2% between 2014 and 2015. Too bad it was completely bogus: the supposed increase in everyone's income is pure statistical trickery.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Tensions between India and Pakistan are rising. The Philippine government ordered the suspension of three quarters of the nation’s mines. Czech central bank sounds more confident of the cap exit. Poland’s Finance Minister Szalamacha was sacked. Moody's downgraded Turkey one notch to Ba1 with a stable outlook. The Brazilian central bank's quarterly inflation report set the table for the easing cycle to start.

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You Want to Fix the Economy? Then First Fix Healthcare

We don't just deserve an affordable, sustainable healthcare system--we're doomed to bankruptcy without one. What is blindingly obvious to employers but apparently invisible to the average zero-business-experience mainstream pundit is this: if you want to fix the economy, you must first fix healthcare.

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Are The ‘Invisible Americans’ the Key Players in This Election?

For the bottom 90% of American households, the "prosperity" of the "recovery" since 2009 is a bright shining lie. The phrase is from a history of the Vietnam War, A Bright Shining Lie: John Paul Vann and America in Vietnam. Just as the Vietnam War was built on lies, propaganda, PR and rigged statistics(the infamous body counts--civilians killed as "collateral damage" counted as "enemy combatants"), so too is the "recovery" nothing but a pathetic...

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Trump, Trade and Taxes

Donald Trump has made trade agreements a central issue in this presidential election, declaring trade treaties such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as unfair and subject to cancellation or renegotiation. Setting aside the issue of whether presidents can cancel trade treaties via executive orders, let's look at the underlying issue: the erosion of manufacturing and entry-level job opportunities that lead to middle-class security...

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Why the Deep State Is Dumping Hillary

Join me in offering solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of this wild and crazy site via patreon.com.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM initially benefitted from the FOMC decision, but softened into the weekend. One culprit was lower oil prices, as reports suggest an output deal is unlikely at the OPEC meeting this week in Algeria. But it wasn’t just EM, as the greenback closed firmer against the majors as well. We still believe that risk and EM should do fine over the next few weeks, as the Fed basically set a two-month window of steady rates.

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