Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Dollar Slide Continues as US Fiscal Stimulus Remains Questionable

2020-10-11

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2020-10-11

2020 Senate Control
The dollar remains heavy; stimulus talks may or may not be dead; the White House is still sending mixed signals. This is another quiet day in terms of US data; Canada reports September jobs data. We got some more eurozone IP readings for August; following Greece yesterday, it’s Italy’s turn today to register another record low for its 10-year bond yield.

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It Just Isn’t Enough

2020-10-10

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2020-10-10

Unemployment Insurance, Initial Jobless Claims, 1980-2020
The Department of Labor attached a technical note to its weekly report on unemployment claims. The state of California has announced that it is suspending the processing of initial claims filed by (former) workers in that state.

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Election 2020: can the Democrats win the Senate? | The Economist

2020-10-09

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In the US 2020 election the battle to control of the Senate is almost as important as the race for the White House, because control of Congress can make or break a presidency. The Economist has created a new statistical model to predict who will win.

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A Hard Rain Is Going to Fall

2020-10-09

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2020-10-09

The status quo is about to discover that it can't stop the hard rain or protect its fragile sandcastles. You'll recognize A Hard Rain Is Going to Fall as a cleaned-up rendition of Bob Dylan's classic "A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall".

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Dollar Remains Heavy as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

2020-10-09

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2020-10-09

The US Vice Presidential debate was a comparatively cordial affair, though the impact on the election is likely to be limited; polls continue to move in favor of Biden, including in swing states. The weak dollar narrative under a Democratic sweep continues to play out; the outlook for fiscal stimulus is as cloudy as ever; FOMC minutes contained no big surprises.

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Is There Enough?

2020-10-08

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2020-10-08

IHS Markit US Composite, 2012-2020
It’s just not fast enough. And with the labor market spitting out numbers across a broad economic cross-section that look increasingly tired suggesting an economy running out of momentum, there’s the added urgency of time.

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Dollar Softens and US Curve Steepens as Odds of Democratic Sweep Rise

2020-10-07

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2020-10-07

2020 Presidential Elections Odds
The dollar remains under pressure; the US curve continues to steepen; a compromise on fiscal stimulus before the election still seems unlikely; this is another quiet day in terms of US data. President Lagarde said the ECB is prepared to inject fresh monetary stimulus to support the recovery; we expect the ECB to increase its PEPP in Q4.

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Who’s Negative? The Marginal American Worker

2020-10-06

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2020-10-06

CPS Household Survey: Civilian Labor Force Level, 2007-2020
The BLS’s payroll report draws most of the mainstream attention, with the exception of the unemployment rate (especially these days). The government designates the former as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) series, and it intends to measure factors like payrolls (obviously), wages, and earnings from the perspective of the employers, or establishments.

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The secret to tackling corruption | The Economist

2020-10-05

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Corruption costs the world nearly $3trn a year. Here are some of the innovative ways in which communities, companies and countries are tackling it. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The Economist on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/ Follow The...

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 10-01-20 – What Could Go Wrong?

2020-10-05

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43 Minutes with 36 Supporting Slides

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Things Change

2020-10-05

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2020-10-05

Things change, supposedly immutable systems crumble and delusions die. That's the lay of the land in the  The Empire of Uncertainty I described yesterday.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-10-05

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2020-10-05

The US political outlook has been upended by recent developments; lack of a significant safe haven bid for the dollar so far is telling. This is a very quiet week in terms of US data; FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday; there is a full slate of Fed speakers.

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Dollar Remains Soft but Sterling Pounded by Brexit Risks

2020-10-04

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2020-10-04

2020 Senate Control
The dollar remains under pressure as market sentiment continue to improve; stimulus talks were extended. Two major US airlines announced significant job furloughs starting today; US data for September will continue  to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported.

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That System Is Completely And Incredibly Unfair

2020-10-04

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The system is quite unfair and this is the problem in itself.

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Things Change: Charles Hugh Smith

2020-10-03

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Https://rebrand.ly/rawealthpartners1 Join Now Things Change: Charles Hugh Smith , Keyword "Doing more of what's hollowed out our economy and society" is a slippery path to ruin. Things change, supposedly immutable systems crumble and delusions die. That's the lay of the land in the The Empire of Uncertainty I described yesterday. It's difficult not to be reminded of the Antonine Plague of 165 AD that crippled the Western Roman Empire....

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Monthly Macro Monitor – September (VIDEO)

2020-10-03

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2020-10-03

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun and Alhambra's Bob Williams look at data from the past month and discuss what it means for the economy.

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The Urban Exodus and How Greatness Goes Bankrupt

2020-10-03

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2020-10-03

The best-case scenario is those who love their "great city" will accept the daunting reality that even greatness can go bankrupt. Two recent essays pin each end of the "urban exodus" spectrum.

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Why Aren’t Bond Yields Flyin’ Upward? Bidin’ Bond Time Trumps Jay

2020-10-02

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2020-10-02

It’s always something. There’s forever some mystery factor standing in the way. On the topic of inflation, for years it was one “transitory” issue after another. The media, on behalf of the central bankers it holds up as a technocratic ideal, would report these at face value. The more obvious explanation, the argument with all the evidence, just couldn’t be true otherwise it’d collapse the technocracy right down to the ground.And so it was also in...

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The Empire of Uncertainty

2020-10-02

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2020-10-02

Anyone claiming they can project the trajectory of the U.S. and global economy is deluding themselves. Normalcy depends entirely on everyday life being predictable. To be predictable, life must be stable, which means that there is a high level of certainty in every aspect of life.

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Lyn Alden/Jeff Snider (QE, Deflation, Inflation, Dollar, Eurodollar System, Future US Economy)

2020-10-01

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The Rebel Capitalist show helps YOU learn more about Macro, Investing, Entrepreneurship AND Personal Freedom. ✅ Want to take your investing to the next level? Check out my new online investing forum!! I've partnered with Lyn Alden and Chris MacIntosh to bring you the best investment tool on the internet...Rebel Capitalist Pro. Check out our special offer at https://www.GeorgeGammon.com/pro For more content that'll help you build wealth...

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