Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

What Gold Says About UST Auctions

2021-03-11

by

2021-03-11

US Treasury & Auction Rates, 2018-2021
The “too many” Treasury argument which ignited early in 2018 never made a whole lot of sense. It first showed up, believe it or not, in 2016. The idea in both cases was fiscal debt; Uncle Sam’s deficit monster displayed a voracious appetite never in danger of slowing down even though – Economists and central bankers claimed – it would’ve been wise to heed looming inflationary pressures to cut back first.

Read More »

How covid-19 is boosting innovation | The Economist

2021-03-10

by

Covid-19 has accelerated the adoption of technologies and pushed the world faster into the future. As businesses and organisations look towards the post-pandemic era, what lessons can be learned about innovation? Read more here: https://econ.st/3t6T7yM Chapters 00:00 - How has covid-19 boosted innovation? 01:20 - Drone deliveries 04:20 - How crises lead to innovation 06:47 - How restaurants have innovated 09:29 - Inequality between companies 10:48...

Read More »

4 Social Security Planning Steps BEFORE You’re Ready to Retire

2021-03-10

by

2021-03-10

Social Security is an important part of almost every retirement plan, whether you’ve saved enough or not. That’s why it’s important to know as much about your Social Security situation as possible. And you don’t want to wait until you’re about to retire to gather the facts and take appropriate steps. Social Security planning needs to start 5 years before your target retirement date.

Read More »

Deja Vu: Treasury Shorts Meet Treasury Shortages

2021-03-10

by

2021-03-10

UST Yield Curve, 2013
Investors like to short bonds, even Treasuries, as much as they might stocks and their ilk. It should be no surprise that profit-maximizing speculators will seek the best risk-adjusted returns wherever and whenever they might perceive them.

Read More »

Too Busy Frontrunning Inflation, Nobody Sees the Deflationary Tsunami

2021-03-08

by

2021-03-08

Those looking up from their "free fish!" frolicking will see the tsunami too late to save themselves. It's an amazing sight to see the water recede from the bay, and watch the crowd frolic in the shallows, scooping up the flopping fish. In this case, the crowd doing the "so easy to catch, why not grab as much as we can?" scooping is frontrunning inflation, the universally expected result of the Great Reflation Trade.

Read More »

Nuclear power: why is it so unpopular? | The Economist

2021-03-05

by

The meltdown at a nuclear power station in Fukushima, Japan, ten years ago stoked anxieties about nuclear energy. But nuclear is one of the safest, most reliable and sustainable forms of energy, and decarbonising will be much more difficult without it. Further content: Sign up to our newsletter about climate change: https://econ.st/38bLSO9 The Economist also has a new weekly newsletter, Simply Science: https://econ.st/3uWjw4b Find all our...

Read More »

There’s Two Sides To Synchronize

2021-03-03

by

2021-03-03

The offside of “synchronized” is pretty obvious when you consider all possibilities. In economic terms, synchronized growth would mean if the bulk of the economy starts moving forward, we’d expect the rest to follow with only a slight lag. That’s the upside of harmonized systems, the period everyone hopes and cheers for.

Read More »

About That +6.8 percent GDP Forecast: Remember That GDP = Waste

2021-03-02

by

2021-03-02

Any economy stupid enough to rely on the insane distortions of GDP "growth" as its primary measure will richly deserve a Darwin Award when it inevitably collapses in a putrid heap of squandered resources and capital.

Read More »

SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2021-03-02

by

Lundi 1 mars 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

Read More »

What “Normal” Are We Returning To? The Depression Nobody Dares Acknowledge

2021-03-01

by

2021-03-01

Perhaps we need an honest national dialog about declining expectations, rising inequality, social depression and the failure of the status quo. Even as the chirpy happy-talk of a return to normal floods the airwaves, what nobody dares acknowledge is that "normal" for a rising number of Americans is the social depression of downward mobility and social defeat.

Read More »

Three Things About Today’s UST Sell-off, Beginning With Fedwire

2021-02-28

by

2021-02-28

UST Yield Curve, 1990
Three relatively quick observations surrounding today’s UST selloff.1. The intensity. Reflation is the underlying short run basis, but there is ample reason to suspect quite a bit more than that alone given the unexpected interruption in Fedwire yesterday.

Read More »

Iran v America: what’s behind the feud? | The Economist

2021-02-27

by

Iran and America’s decades-long feud has led to hostage-taking, sanctions and proxy wars that have shaped the Middle East. What is behind the feud, and can it be resolved? Chapters 00:00 - The history of the feud 01:01 - 1951-53: The Persian Oil Crisis 02:04 - The 1953 coup 04:11 - 1978-1979: The Iranian revolution 05:12 - 1979-81: The hostage crisis 06:58 - 1980-88: The Iraq-Iran war 09:06 - 1983: US embassy bombing 09:50 - Hizbullah 11:00 - The...

Read More »

Oil and Debt: Why Our Financial System Is Unsustainable

2021-02-25

by

2021-02-25

Primary energy consumption by source, 1965-2018
How much energy, water and food will the "money" created out of thin air in the future buy? Finance is often cloaked in arcane terminology and math, but the one dynamic that governs the future is actually very simple.

Read More »

Nine Percent of GDP Fiscal, Ha! Try Forty

2021-02-25

by

2021-02-25

Japan CPI, 2006-2021
Fear of the ultra-inflationary aspects of fiscal overdrive. This is the current message, but according to what basis? Bigger is better, therefore if the last one didn’t work then the much larger next one absolutely will. So long as you forget there was a last one and when that prior version had been announced it was also given the same benefit of the doubt.

Read More »

For The Dollar, Not How Much But How Long Therefore How Familiar

2021-02-24

by

2021-02-24

US Dollar / Brazilian Real, 2020-2021
Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to facilitate more direct control of the company by the federal...

Read More »

What Might Be In *Another* Market-based Yield Curve Twist?

2021-02-23

by

2021-02-23

Pro forma CES Private Payrolls, 2020-2021
With the UST yield curve currently undergoing its own market-based twist, it’s worth investigating a couple potential reasons for it. On the one hand, the long end, clear cut reflation: markets are not, as is commonly told right now, pricing 1979 Great Inflation #2, rather how the next few years may not be as bad (deflationary) as once thought a few months ago.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse – Real Rates Finally Make A Move

2021-02-22

by

2021-02-22

Last week was only four days due to the President’s day holiday but it was eventful. The big news of the week was the  spike in interest rates, which according to the press reports I read, “came out of nowhere”. In other words, the writers couldn’t find an obvious cause for a 14 basis point rise in the 10 year Treasury note yield so they just chalked it up to mystery.

Read More »

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 3: Bill’s Reading On Reflation, And Other Charted Potpourri

2021-02-21

by

2021-02-21

46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac.

Read More »

How will covid-19 change travel? | The Economist

2021-02-20

by

The covid-19 pandemic has devastated the travel industry. But as vaccines are rolled out and global travel slowly picks up, how will the industry evolve, and will holidays ever be the same again? Read more here: https://econ.st/3aA2row Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage: https://econ.st/3aor3kg Read our special report about the future of tourism: https://econ.st/3bnP1vc Read about why...

Read More »

What Poisoned America?

2021-02-20

by

2021-02-20

America's financial system is nothing more than a toxic waste dump of speculation, fraud, collusion, corruption and rampant profiteering. What Poisoned America?

Read More »