Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Stagnating Salaries as Main Reason for the British Home Price Boom

The major reason for rising British and American home prices is for us the relatively new phenomenon that they are to able to finance at cheap rates. Swiss or Germans have seen relatively low mortgage rates for more than three decades (with a short exception in the mid 1990s after the German reunification). The main driver of low rates …

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The Decline of Small Business and the Middle Class

The only way to not just survive but thrive as an entrepreneurial enterprise is to destroy fixed costs and labor overhead. It is not coincidental that the middle class and small business are both in decline.

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America’s Nine Classes: The New Class Hierarchy

Eight of the nine classes are hidebound by conventions, neofeudal and neocolonial arrangements and a variety of false choices. There are many ways to slice and dice America's power/wealth hierarchy. The conventional class structure is divided along the lines of income, i.e. the wealthy, upper middle class, middle class, lower middle class and the poor.

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Russia, Europe, and the new international order

By Josef Janning – 09 Apr 14 Via the European Council of Foreign Relations. The premise of an international order defined by the West and shared by the rest has been shown to be faulty. Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart and nationalism re-emerged as a divisive as well as cohesive factor in Eastern … Continue reading...

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Krimkonflikt: Über die Gleichschaltung der deutschen Medien

Der Propagandakrieg in Russland, in den USA und insbesondere in Deutschland und auch in der Schweiz geht weiter. Russische Medien trichtern den Menschen ein, dass eine riesige Flüchtlingswelle von Russen aus der Ukraine stattfindet. Deutsche Medien sind gleichgeschaltet: von links (TAZ, Spiegel, Stern) bis rechts (FAZ, n-tv.de und Welt) trichtern sie den Deutschen ein, dass …

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Labor Costs to Total Expenses, Global Comparison

The conflict between labor and capital is a long and illustrious one, and one in which ideology and politics have played a far greater role than simple economics and math.

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Ukraine: About Street-Elected Overthrowers and Democratically Elected Dictators

It only needs a few years until democratically elected presidents become so-called “tyrants” and “dictators”. The bad economic situation in many emerging markets and Russia, and therefore also in Ukraine, has taken its toll. Demonstrators and Ukrainian nationalists toppled a president that has a Russian mother tongue. But Yanukovych was a protector of the country’s …

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Government and Public-Sector Employment

Government and Public-Sector Employment

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Our March 2013 Analysis: “Volcker Moment Redux”: Upcoming Weakness of Emerging Markets

The 2010 QE2 is a reason why many emerging markets started to slow considerably in the course of 2012. We reckon that this weakness will continue. Bizarrely QE2 helped to reduce global imbalances.

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices (outdated)

Manufacturing PMIs : most leading and important economic indicators.

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2013 Posts on Global Macro

Emerging Markets and Global Oil Demand



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What Does It Take To Be Middle Class?

By standards of previous generations, the middle class has been stripmined of income, assets and purchasing power. What does it take to be middle class nowadays? A recent paper, The Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class, used Census data to discuss what sort of income it takes to qualify as middle class, but reached no firm conclusion: people tend to self-report that they belong to the middle class based on income, but income is not...

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Japan Beats the United States in GDP Growth per Capita for Last Decade

GDP Growth per Capita in Developed Nations in the following order: Australia Sweden Germany Switzerland Netherlands Japan Canada United States France United Kingdom Ireland Spain Italy Greece

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Japan Beats the United States in GDP Growth per Capita for Last Decade

Mainstream economists speak of two Japanese lost decades(s) between 1990 and 2009.  Often the United States and the UK are seen as leader in growth. Some statistics might confirm this: When we look on a more subtle criteria, namely GDP growth per capita, available at the world bank, we see a different picture. China and … Continue reading...

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The Great Disinflation Continues, How Wonderful!

Recently investors moved out of bonds in the expectation that inflation will rise soon. But strangely inflation rates have continued to fall. The great disinflation continues.

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices: Europe and China Recover while other Emerging Markets Still Struggle

Emerging markets: Years of strong increases in wages combined with tapering fears have taken its toll: Higher costs and lower investment capital available. EM Companies have issues in coping with developed economies. Some of them even need to shed jobs.

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The U.S. “Oil Trade Deficit” Narrows

The United States trade balance has strengthened to a deficit of only -34.2 bln USD in June 2013. This is nearly half the record-high trade deficit of 62 bln. $ in August 2008 and not too far from record-lows of 26 bln. $ in July 2009, when oil was really cheap. In the first six … Continue reading »

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Abenomics Succeeding? Don’t Believe the Mainstream Media, Just Energy and Import Prices Are Higher

  While the FT says: Abenomics is succeeding in bringing inflation back to Japan. The preferred core CPI measure, which excludes volatile food prices, rose a higher-than-anticipated 0.4 per cent in June (year-over-year), the highest reading since November 2008 and the first positive reading since April 2012. (The reading was flat in May). Overall inflation …

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