Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Government and Public-Sector Employment

Government and Public-Sector Employment

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Our March 2013 Analysis: “Volcker Moment Redux”: Upcoming Weakness of Emerging Markets

The 2010 QE2 is a reason why many emerging markets started to slow considerably in the course of 2012. We reckon that this weakness will continue. Bizarrely QE2 helped to reduce global imbalances.

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices (outdated)

Manufacturing PMIs : most leading and important economic indicators.

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2013 Posts on Global Macro

Emerging Markets and Global Oil Demand



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What Does It Take To Be Middle Class?

By standards of previous generations, the middle class has been stripmined of income, assets and purchasing power. What does it take to be middle class nowadays? A recent paper, The Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class, used Census data to discuss what sort of income it takes to qualify as middle class, but reached no firm conclusion: people tend to self-report that they belong to the middle class based on income, but income is not...

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Japan Beats the United States in GDP Growth per Capita for Last Decade

GDP Growth per Capita in Developed Nations in the following order: Australia Sweden Germany Switzerland Netherlands Japan Canada United States France United Kingdom Ireland Spain Italy Greece

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Japan Beats the United States in GDP Growth per Capita for Last Decade

Mainstream economists speak of two Japanese lost decades(s) between 1990 and 2009.  Often the United States and the UK are seen as leader in growth. Some statistics might confirm this: When we look on a more subtle criteria, namely GDP growth per capita, available at the world bank, we see a different picture. China and … Continue reading...

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The Great Disinflation Continues, How Wonderful!

Recently investors moved out of bonds in the expectation that inflation will rise soon. But strangely inflation rates have continued to fall. The great disinflation continues.

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices: Europe and China Recover while other Emerging Markets Still Struggle

Emerging markets: Years of strong increases in wages combined with tapering fears have taken its toll: Higher costs and lower investment capital available. EM Companies have issues in coping with developed economies. Some of them even need to shed jobs.

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The U.S. “Oil Trade Deficit” Narrows

The United States trade balance has strengthened to a deficit of only -34.2 bln USD in June 2013. This is nearly half the record-high trade deficit of 62 bln. $ in August 2008 and not too far from record-lows of 26 bln. $ in July 2009, when oil was really cheap. In the first six … Continue reading »

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Abenomics Succeeding? Don’t Believe the Mainstream Media, Just Energy and Import Prices Are Higher

  While the FT says: Abenomics is succeeding in bringing inflation back to Japan. The preferred core CPI measure, which excludes volatile food prices, rose a higher-than-anticipated 0.4 per cent in June (year-over-year), the highest reading since November 2008 and the first positive reading since April 2012. (The reading was flat in May). Overall inflation …

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Democracies Like Bubbles, Totalitarian Regimes Hate Them

Totalitarian regimes, like China, fear bubbles and revolutions. Strangely, these regimes help to prevent asset bubbles, and the resulting unequal distribution of wealth between rich asset owners and the poor without assets. Today’s FT article shows how Chinese authorities fear the bubble and the revolution. China cash crunch deepens as PBOC withholds funding Short-term interbank …

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Will the China Bubble Bust? Pros and Cons

Economic experts and even rating agencies remain in dis-accord about the height of Chinese total debt and if this will continue to slow the Chinese economy.

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Has Abenomics Failed? Let us Go for Exchange Rate Targeting and Maintain Stability

Abenomics has failed It was doomed from the very beginning. You cannot create out of risk-averse Japanese risk-tolerating Americans. Public Japanese opinion puts enormous pressure on BoJ policy and on the government; the risks of rising  JGB yields are too high. Japanese hate volatility, the government cannot risk its funding. The emphasis on the word …

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The Cyclical and Exchange-Rate Induced Chinese Slowing

We believe in the Chinese economy, but it has just gone into a cyclical and a exchange-rate induced slowing. Any Cassandra views like recently by Charles Dumas, chief strategist of Lombard Research, but also some of Richard Koo’s earlier views, that there will be a burst of the Chinese housing bubble, are exaggerated. Markets Insight: …

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Abenomics: A USD/JPY Trade the Smart Money Banks on

Hedge funds worldwide have been counting on a rise and subsequent fall in USDJPY, and conditions remain intact for that to happen, though not to the extremes that many once expected.

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Don’t Worry, Inflation Will Come Back! It is already there; just not where you might live!

We name the main drivers of disinflation and manipulators of the CPI: Markets, central banks, investors, governments, statisticians, ageing, entrepreneurs, global competition, and last but least the euro.

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Pictet Become “Secular Dollar Bulls” and Gold Bashers: Our Response

  Precisely at the moment when the dollar undergoes a secular bashing with a 6% loss against the yen and 3% against the euro, Pictet publish their “secular dollar bull era” video and recommend investors to avoid gold. “Secular movements” in currency markets are mostly driven by current account (CA) surpluses or deficits, while housing …

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Abenomics: Japanese Economy Would Have Recovered Even Without it

Response to Prof. Nick Rowe, Carleton University, Canada and Lars Christensen, the leading “Market Monetarist“.   Nick Rowe: Is the Bank of Japan trying to push down bond yields? Well, yes and no. Yes, it is fighting a battle to push down bond yields, but that battle is part of a wider war for economic recovery. And …

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