Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?

updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …

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Financialization and Crony Capitalism Have Gutted the Middle Class

The neofeudal colonization of the "home market" has transformed the middle class into debt serfs. According to the conventional account, the Great American Middle Class has been eroded by rising energy costs, globalization, and the declining purchasing power of the U.S. dollar in the four decades since 1973.

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Non-Farm Payrolls: Today’s preview

A detailed comparison of Non-Farm Payroll estimators from six different sources, like Bloomberg, ISM, Department of Labor and ADP.

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Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs  compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI:  Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI  

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Quantitative Easing Indicators, June 2012

The main drivers for demand for Swiss francs are the Euro crisis, but even more the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and in the fear of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the … Continue reading »

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The latest bubble: Real estate in Russia

Still a draft, From Barnaul, Siberia, Russia Inna, 28, is a high-school teacher, she has one child. Her monthly salary is 8’500 Russian Rubel, about 257 USD. Similarly as many state employees her salary is very low. Recently the state doubled the salary of policemen and soldiers from 20’000 RUB to 40’000 RUB. A main …

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The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again

Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …

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The Chinese Government, a bubble creator or when finally does China consume ?

The years 2009 to 2011 have seen four institutions that created bubbles in commodity, stock and real estate markets. 2008 and 2009 saw the massive Keynesian interventions by the US state and the Chinese government. In 2009 the first Quantitative Easing measures enabled a first flood of hot money into Emerging Markets. Summer 2010 witnessed …

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Forget Non-Farm Payrolls, Take US Personal Disposable Income as Lead Economic Indicator

The unreliable Non-Farm Payrolls has far too much importance  Interesting to see that markets needed two relatively bad NFPs to really believe that their main indicators, the “Non-Farm Payroll” reports were strongly biased in January and February by a positive weather effect. HFT algorithms that highly influence stock market prices, are not able to take …

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Keynesians vs. Anti-Keynesians: How price deflation has kick started the US growth

In recent posts Keynesians were criticized that hikes in the monetary base like Quantitative Easing (QE2) failed to lift the US economy, but it was the debt ceiling that helped to restore confidence in the US and that austerity can lead to GDP growth. Paul Krugman angrily replied that “even a huge rise in the …

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Deutliche Unterschiede bei Bruttonationaleinkommen und Bruttoinlandsprodukt

  Deutliche Unterschiede bei Bruttonationaleinkommen (BNE) und Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) Im Gegensatz zu Irland und Luxemburg, wo das BIP wesentlich grösser als das BNE ist, ist es mit der Schweiz umgekehrt. Aufgrund der globalen Aktivitäten der Schweizer Firmen wuchs das BNE in den letzten Jahren wesentlich stärker als das BIP. Die einzige Ausnahme sind 2007 und 2008, …

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