Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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TIC October: The Deflationary ‘Dollars’ Behind The Flat, Inverting Curves

2021-12-23

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2021-12-23

Seems like ancient history given all that’s happened since, but on October 13 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a planned deluge of cash management bills in the wake of the debt ceiling resolution (the first one). The next day, China’s currency, CNY, broke free from its previous and suspiciously narrow range.

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One Shock Case For ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Reaching A Quarter-Century

2021-12-22

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2021-12-22

Have oil producers shot themselves in the foot, while at the same time stabbing the global economy in the back? It’d be quite a feat if it turns out to be the case, one of those historical oddities that when anyone might honestly look back on it from the future still hung in disbelief. Let’s start by reviewing just the facts.

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The World Ahead: the true costs of ageing | The Economist

2021-12-21

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The rich world is ageing fast. How can societies afford the looming costs of caring for their growing elderly populations? film supported by @Mission Winnow 00:00 The wealthy world is ageing 01:17 Japan’s elderly population 02:11 The problems of an ageing world 04:01 Reinventing old age 05:48 Unlocking the potential of older years 07:09 Reforming social care 08:20 A community-based approach 11:08 A fundamental shift is needed Read our special...

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One Chart Traders Might Want to Ponder

2021-12-21

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2021-12-21

But when the Fed's fundamental powerlessness is revealed and the buy-the-dippers have been forced to liquidate, the true meaning of "mild" contagion will become apparent. Since I'd rather not be renditioned to a rat-infested, freezing cell in an unnamed 'stan, I'm circumspect about viruses in general.

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How Vulnerable Is Your Personal Supply Chain?

2021-12-20

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2021-12-20

How vulnerable is your personal supply chain? For the average American, the answer is: very. Americans consider abundance and ready availability as birthrights so basic they're like the air we breathe. The idea that shelves could become bare and stay bare is incomprehensible. yet that is the world we're entering, for a number of complex reasons.

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Playing Dominoes

2021-12-19

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2021-12-19

That was fast. Just yesterday I said watch out for when the oil curve flips from backwardation to contango. When it does, that’s not a good sign. Generally speaking, it means something has changed with regard to future expectations, at least one of demand, supply, or also money/liquidity.

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Smart Enough to Get Rich, Not Smart Enough to Keep It

2021-12-19

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2021-12-19

Are we smart enough to keep our oh-so-easily conjured riches? If we continue to believe that doing more of what's failed spectacularly will deliver permanently expanding riches, then the answer is no.

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Testing The Supply Chain Inflation Hypothesis The Real Money Way

2021-12-18

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2021-12-18

Basic intuition says this is a no-brainer. Producer prices rise, businesses then pass along these higher input costs to their customers in the form of consumer price “inflation” so as to preserve profits. This is the supply chain hypothesis. Statistically, we’d therefore expect the PPI to lead the CPI.And this was expected for much of Economics’ history, taken for granted as one of those self-evident truths (kind of like the Inflation Fairy). After...

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The FOMC Chases The US Unemployment Rate Regardless of China’s Huge Mess

2021-12-18

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2021-12-18

In certain quarters, “scientific” quarters, the Chinese haven’t just done a fantastic job managing their own outbreak of COVID-19, the Communist government has produced a pandemic response model for the entire world to envy.

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Trying To Project The Goods Trade Cycle

2021-12-17

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2021-12-17

One quick note on yesterday’s retail sales estimates in the US for the month of November 2021. The increase for them was less than had been expected, but these were hardly awful by any rational measure.

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Can science help poor kids earn more? | The Economist

2021-12-16

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The wide gap in development between rich and poor children could be closed with the help of neuroscience. Might a controversial focus on genetics also help? Film supported by @Mishcon de Reya LLP 00:00- The achievement gap between rich and poor kids 00:55 - Words matter in childhood development 03:16 - Conversation can combat childhood inequality 05:09 - Can genetics help close the achievement gap? 07:30 - Genetics can be controversial Sign up...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Has Inflation Peaked?

2021-12-13

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2021-12-13

The headlines last Friday were ominous: Inflation Hits Highest Level in Nearly 40 Years. Inflation is Painfully High… Groceries and Christmas Presents Are Going To Cost More. Inflation is Soaring..

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Get in Crash Positions

2021-12-13

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2021-12-13

When the market goes bidless, it's too late to preserve capital, never mind all those life-changing gains. Everyone with some gray in their ponytails knows the stock market has ticked every box for a bubble top, so everybody get in crash positions: Let's run through the requirements for a bubble top: 1. Retail investors (i.e. dumb money) are all in and buying the dip with absolute confidence.

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Xi’s Gambit: China at the Crossroads

2021-12-10

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2021-12-10

If Xi's gambit succeeds, China could become a magnet for global capital. If success is only partial or temporary, China may well struggle with the structural excesses that are piling up not just in China but in the entire global economy.

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2022: a preview of the year’s biggest themes | The Economist

2021-12-09

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What will some of 2022’s top themes and stories be? Tom Standage, editor of The Economist’s future-gazing annual, “The World Ahead 2022”, gives his prediction 00:00 What to expect in 2022 00:35 Pandemic to endemic 01:35 Inequality in hybrid working 02:34 Taming cryptocurrencies 03:43 The race to dominate space 04:34 The need for corporate climate solutions Read our latest coverage on The World Ahead: https://econ.st/3HtLmuQ Sign up to The...

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A Global JOLT(s) In July

2021-12-09

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2021-12-09

The Bureau Labor Statistics reported today another huge month for Job Openings (JO). According to their methodology (which I still believe is flawed, but that’s not our focus this time), the level for October 2021 (JOLTS updates are for one month further back than payrolls) was a blistering 11.03 million.

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The Productive Use Of Awful Q3 Productivity Estimates Highlights Even More ‘Growth Scare’ Potential

2021-12-08

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2021-12-08

What was it that old Iowa cornfield movie said? If you build it, he will come. Well, this isn’t quite that, rather something more along the lines of: if you reopen it, some will come back to work. Not nearly as snappy, far less likely to sell anyone movie tickets, yet this other tagline might contribute much to our understanding of “growth scare” and its affect on the US labor market.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Discounting The Future

2021-12-07

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2021-12-07

The economic news recently has been better than expected and in most cases just pretty darn good. That isn’t true on a global basis as Europe continues to experience a pretty sluggish recovery from COVID. And China is busy shooting itself in the foot as Xi pursues the re-Maoing of Chinese society, damn the economic costs.

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The Long Cycles Have All Turned: Look Out Below

2021-12-03

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2021-12-03

But alas, humans do not possess god-like powers, they only possess hubris, and so all bubbles pop: the more extreme the bubble, the more devastating the pop. Long cycles operate at such a glacial pace they're easily dismissed as either figments of fevered imagination or this time it's different.

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How vegan burgers can help save the planet | The Economist

2021-12-02

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When people cook steak, they’re also cooking the planet. As meat consumption continues to rise, what role can meat alternatives play in a more sustainable food system? Read more: https://econ.st/3rvlWHC Film supported by @Infosys 00:00 - What you put on your plate impacts the planet 01:03 - Britain’s meat-eating habits 03:06 - The environmental impact of meat and dairy 05:43 - Plant-based food is better for the environment 07:03 - The rise of...

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