Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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2021: If It Wasn’t For Bad Luck, We Wouldn’t Have No Luck At All

2021-01-11

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2021-01-11

If we have indeed begun a sustained "reversal of fortune", it might be prudent to consider the possibility we're only in the first inning of a sustained run of back luck.

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They’ve Gone Too Far (or have they?)

2021-01-10

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2021-01-10

Between November 1998 and February 1999, Japan’s government bond (JGB) market was utterly decimated. You want to find an historical example of a real bond rout (no caps nor exclamations necessary), take a look at what happened during those three exhilarating (if you were a government official) months.

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There’s Always A First Time

2021-01-09

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2021-01-09

Is it a race against time? Or is it trying to set aside today so as to focus entirely on a specific kind of tomorrow? It’s easy to do the latter especially when today is what it is; you can’t change what’s already gone on.

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The Tyranny Nobody Talks About

2021-01-08

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2021-01-08

All the tricks to hide our unaffordable cost structure have reached marginal returns. Reality is about to intrude. There is much talk of tyranny in the political realm, but little is said about the tyrannies in the economic realm, a primary one being the tyranny of high costs: high costs crush the economy from within and enslave those attempting to start enterprises or keep their businesses afloat. Traditionally, costs are broken down into...

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Seizing The Dirt Shirt Title

2021-01-06

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2021-01-06

China PMI, 2010-2020
In mid-December 2019, before the world had heard of COVID, China’s Central Economic Work Conference had released a rather startling statement for the world to consume. In the West, everything was said to be on the up. Central banks had responded, forcefully, many claimed, more than enough to deal with that year’s “unexpected” globally synchronized downturn.

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The Coming War on Wealth and the Wealthy

2021-01-06

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2021-01-06

The Fruit of Financialization
Here's looking at you, Federal Reserve--thanks for perfecting 'legalized looting' and neofeudalism in America.

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2020 Was a Snack, 2021 Is the Main Course

2021-01-04

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2021-01-04

One of the dishes at the banquet of consequences that will surprise a great many revelers is the systemic failure of the Federal Reserve's one-size-fits-all "solution" to every spot of bother: print another trillion dollars and give it to rapacious financiers and corporations.

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2020 the “Worst Year Ever”–You’re Joking, Right?

2020-12-29

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2020-12-29

So party on, because "the worst year ever" is ending and the rebound of financial markets, already the greatest in recorded history, will only become more fabulous.

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Big Media: Selling the Narrative and Crushing Dissent for Fun and Profit

2020-12-22

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2020-12-22

The profit-maximizing Big Tech / Big Media Totalitarian regime hasn't just strangled free speech and civil liberties; it's also strangled democracy.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-12-21

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2020-12-21

As of this writing, a stimulus deal is close and a US government shutdown Monday may have been avoided; the Fed gave US banks the go-ahead to resume stock buybacks Friday; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported on Wednesday due to the holiday.

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When Social Capital Becomes More Valuable Than Financial Capital

2020-12-20

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2020-12-20

This devaluation of financial wealth--and its transformation to a dangerous liability-- will reach extremes equal to the current extremes of wealth-income inequality.

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Dollar Continues to Soften Ahead of FOMC Decision

2020-12-20

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2020-12-20

Inflation Expectations, 2015-2019
Optimism on a stimulus deal remains high; the FOMC decision will be key; the dollar tends to weaken on recent FOMC decision days November retail sales will be the US data highlight; Markit reports preliminary December PMI readings; Canada reports November CPI

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Consumers, Too; (Un)Confident To Re-engage

2020-12-19

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2020-12-19

Friedman's Plucking Model of Trend-Cycle Analysis
There is a lot of evidence which shows some basis for expectations-based monetary policy. Much of what becomes a recession or worse is due to the psychological impacts upon businesses (who invest and hire) as well as workers being consumers (who earn and then spend).

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What Did Hamper Growth ‘In A Few Months’

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

US Industrial Production, SA 2011-2020
Over here, on the other side of that ocean, the US economy can only dream of the low levels Chinese industry has been putting up this late into 2020. At least those in the East are back positive year-over-year. Here in America, manufacturing and industry can’t even manage anything like a plus sign.

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Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report named Switzerland and Vietnam as currency manipulators. Both countries came under scrutiny in the last report and so this week’s announcement was only surprising in that it was made by a lame duck administration that will be gone in a month.

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Can 20 Years of Deflation Be Compressed into Two Years? We’re About to Find Out

2020-12-17

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2020-12-17

Extremes become more extreme right up until they reverse, a reversal no one believes possible here in the waning days of 2020.

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This Global Growth Stuff, China Still Wants A Word

2020-12-16

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2020-12-16

Before there could be “globally synchronized growth”, it had been plain old “global growth.” The former from 2017 appended the term “synchronized” to its latter 2014 forerunner in order to jazz it up. And it needed the additional rhetorical flourish due to the simple fact that in 2015 for all the stated promise of “global growth” it ended up meaning next to nothing in reality.Oddly the same for 2017’s update heading into 2018 and...

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FOMC Preview

2020-12-15

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2020-12-15

Coronavirus Daily Change, 2020
The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Wednesday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in the coming months.

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One Little Problem with the “All-Electric” Auto Fleet: What Do We Do with all the “Waste” Gasoline?

2020-12-15

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2020-12-15

Primary energy consumption by source, 1965-2018
Regardless of what happens with vaccines and Covid-19, debt and energy--inextricably bound as debt funds consumption-- will destabilize the global economy in a self-reinforcing feedback.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-12-14

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2020-12-14

The Senate passed a stopgap bill late Friday that will keep the government funded until midnight this Friday; optimism on a stimulus deal appears to be picking up; the two-day FOMC meeting ending with a decision Wednesday will be important.

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