Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Charles Hugh Smith On Central Bank Buying Of Equities

2017-06-26

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Click here for the full summary with slides: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2017/06/25/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-central-bank-buying-of-equities/

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Can We See a Bubble If We’re Inside the Bubble?

2017-06-25

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2017-06-25

Mental Map
If you visit San Francisco, you will find it difficult to walk more than a few blocks in central S.F. without encountering a major construction project. It seems that every decrepit low-rise building in the city has been razed and is being replaced with a gleaming new residential tower.

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Defying Labels

2017-06-25

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2017-06-25

US Industrial Production, January 2010 - June 2017
Last month US Industrial Production rose rather quickly. Gaining more than 1.1% month-over-month, it might have appeared that the US economy once dragged into downturn by manufacturing and industry was finally about to experience its belated upturn. But frustration is how it has always gone, not just in this latest phase but for all phases since around 2011. Each good month is followed immediately by a disappointing one. What should be...

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Global Asset Allocation Update:

2017-06-24

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2017-06-24

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month.

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Emerging Markets: What’s Changed

2017-06-24

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2017-06-24

MSCI announced it will include 222 China Large Cap A-shares in its Emerging Markets Index. Czech central bank is pushing out rate hike expectations. Hungary central bank eased again using unconventional measures. MSCI announced that it has launched a consultation on reclassification of Saudi Arabia from Standalone to Emerging Market status.

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Repeat 2015; An Embarrassing Day For The Fed

2017-06-24

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2017-06-24

Today started out very badly for the FOMC. At 8:30am the Commerce Department reported “unexpectedly” weak retail sales while at the very same time the BLS published CPI statistics that were thoroughly predictable. Markets, at least credit and money markets, have gained a clearer idea what the Fed is actually doing and why. It’s not at all what the media suggests.

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Retail Sales Weren’t All That Bad, Meaning They Were The Worst

2017-06-23

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2017-06-23

Retail Sales All Weak
Taken in comparison to the last few years, today’s retail sales report wasn’t that bad. Total sales for May 2017, including autos, grew by 5.17% year-over-year (NSA). That was the highest growth rate since last February. The 6-month average is now just shy of 4%, the best since early 2015. It is clear the US economy has shrugged off the effects of last year’s downturn.

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An expert’s guide to negotiating Brexit | The Economist

2017-06-23

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Britain has begun talks on leaving the European Union. The architect of Canada’s recent trade deal with the EU discusses the complexities of Brexit. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 It is crucial for Britain to negotiate a trade deal with the EU before it leaves the bloc in March 2019. …

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Repeat 2014: Praying Again To The God of ‘Global Growth’

2017-06-22

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2017-06-22

CPI Changes on Energy 2016-2017
One of the more troubling aspects of mainstream commentary in 2014 was its blandness. Statements were made with a purpose but also purposefully avoiding specifics. It was common to hear or read “the economy is improving” without being shown why or how in convincing fashion. After suffering a second bout of weakness in 2012 and 2013, unexpected of course, everyone simply believed those words because why not.

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The Economics Behind Music Festivals | The Economist

2017-06-22

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Music festivals attract 32 million revellers annually around the world. That adds up to an industry worth nearly $10bn a year. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 From the mud of Glastonbury to the blockbusting headliners of Coachella, music festivals have become big business. Annually there are around 800 music festivals …

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The ‘Dollar’ Devil Shows Itself Again In China

2017-06-21

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2017-06-21

China Treasury Bond Curve
Some economic and financial conditions leave a yield curve as a more complex affair.Then there are others that are incredibly simple.The UST yield curve is the former, while right now the Chinese Treasury curve is the latter.

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The conflict in South Sudan | The Economist

2017-06-20

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1.6 million South Sudanese have fled the country since December 2013, many to the world’s largest refugee camp, in Uganda. What’s behind the exodus? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Why are there so many refugees from South Sudan? South Sudan has been in a civil war for three and a …

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American Expectations, Chinese Prices

2017-06-20

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2017-06-20

FRBNY Survey Of Consumer Expectations, November 2013 - May 2017
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has for the past almost four years conducted its own assessment of consumer expectations.Though there are several other well-known consumer surveys, FRBNY adding another could be helpful for corroborating them. Unfortunately for the Fed, it has.

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 06 16 17 – Robotics & Chronic Unemployment w/ Charles Hugh Smith

2017-06-19

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Has The Fed Heard Of Amazon?

2017-06-19

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2017-06-19

The economic surprises keep piling up on the negative side of the ledger as the Fed persists in tightening policy or at least pretending that they are. If a rate changes in the wilderness can the market hear it? Outside of the stock market one would be hard pressed to find evidence of the effectiveness of all the Fed’s extraordinary policies of the last decade.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-06-19

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2017-06-19

EM FX was mixed Friday to cap off a mostly lower week. Obviously, we're seeing a bit of a washout in EM after the hawkish FOMC. Market was overly complacent and very long EM going into the FOMC meeting. The big question is how deep this selloff gets. For the better part of this year, EM dips have been met with renewed buying. We remain cautious on EM and think that investors should avoid the high beta currencies like ZAR, TRY, BRL, MXN.

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Deciphering Curves

2017-06-18

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2017-06-18

RHINO Curves, April 2008 - June 2017
What is the yield curve supposed to look like? It’s a simple question that doesn’t actually have an answer. And because it doesn’t, there is a whole lot of confusion about bond yields.

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Wealth Paradox Not Effect

2017-06-18

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2017-06-18

U.S. Household Net Worth, April 1954 - April 2016
US Household Net Worth rose to a record $94.8 trillion in Q1 2017. According to the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States (Z1), aggregate paper wealth rose by more than 8% year-over-year mostly as the stock market shook off the effects of “global turmoil.” It was the best rate of expansion since the second quarter of 2014 just prior to this “rising dollar” interruption.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-06-17

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2017-06-17

Philippines central bank forecast a current account deficit this year, the first one in fifteen years. Kuwait refrained from matching the Fed’s 25 bp hike. The US Senate voted overwhelmingly to step up sanctions against Iran and Russia. Moody’s downgraded South Africa by a notch to Baa3 with negative outlook. South Africa plans to require that all local mines be 30% black-owned.

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Questions Persist About China Trade

2017-06-17

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2017-06-17

Chinese trade statistics were for May 2017 better than expected by economists, but on the export side questions remain as to their accuracy. Earlier this year discrepancies between estimates first published by the General Administration of Customs (GAC), those you find reported in the media, and what is captured by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), backed up by data from the Ministry of Commerce, became noticeable.

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