Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Virtue-Signaling the Decline of the Empire

2017-02-28

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2017-02-28

Top 1% US Pre-Tax Income Share, 1913-2012
Virtue-signaling doesn't signal virtue--it signals decline and collapse. There are many reasons why Imperial Rome declined, but two primary causes that get relatively little attention are moral decay and soaring wealth inequality. The two are of course intimately connected: once the morals of the ruling Elites degrade, the status quo seeks to mask its self-serving rot behind high-minded "virtue-signaling" appeals to past glories and cost-free...

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It Was ‘Dollars’ All Along

2017-02-28

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2017-02-28

Giant Sucking Sound 1960 - 2015
Ross Perot famously declared the “giant sucking sound” in the 1992 Presidential campaign. The debate over NAFTA did not end with George H. W. Bush’s defeat, as it simmered in one form or another for much of the 1990’s. Curiously, however, it seemed almost perfectly absent during the 2000’s, the very decade in which Perot’s prophecy came true. Americans didn’t notice because there was a bubble afoot.

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The coral Noah’s Ark

2017-02-27

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In Hawaii, a group of scientists is creating the world’s only bank of coral sperm. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The world’s OCEANS cover 70% of our planet, are the frontline in the battle against climate change, and yet are relatively unknown. Dive down to their deepest depths to discover …

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Corals are fighting back

2017-02-27

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In Palau, corals are thriving despite climate change. What’s their secret? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The world’s OCEANS cover 70% of our planet, are the frontline in the battle against climate change, and yet are relatively unknown. Dive down to their deepest depths to discover how scientists are using …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-02-27

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2017-02-27

EM FX ended last week on a soft note despite lower US rates. The dollar regained some traction that it lost over the course of the week, when markets pushed out Fed tightening beyond March. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also seemed to push out fiscal stimulus. There is a full slate of Fed speakers this week, and Wednesday sees the release of the Fed’s Beige book that was prepared for the March 15 FOMC meeting.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-02-25

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2017-02-25

PBOC tweaked its process for determining the yuan reference rate. Singapore is reportedly studying measures to boost revenue, including higher taxes. Moody’s upgraded the outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from negative to stable. Nigerian President Buhari extended his stay abroad. Nigerian central bank tweaked its FX restrictions, but was aimed at retail demand. Brazil political risk is back on the table. Brazil’s central bank hinted at a faster pace...

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There’s a Difference: Fake News and Junk News

2017-02-25

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2017-02-25

U.S. Unemployment Rate 1950 - 2017
The mainstream media continues peddling its "fake news" narrative like a desperate pusher whose junkies are dying from his toxic dope. It's slowly dawning on the media-consuming public that the MSM is the primary purveyor of "fake news"-- self-referential narratives that support a blatantly slanted agenda with unsupported accusations and suitably anonymous sources.

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Not Recession, Systemic Rupture – Again

2017-02-25

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2017-02-25

Pyramid - Total US Gold Stock, January 2017
For the very few in the mainstream of economics who venture further back in history than October 1929, they typically still don’t go much last April 1925. And when they do, it is only to further bash the gold standard for its presumed role in creating the conditions for 1929. The Brits under guidance of Winston Churchill made a grave mistake, one from which gold advocates could never recover given what followed.

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Where have all the fish gone?

2017-02-24

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The death of corals is already affecting the human communities that depend on the ocean for survival. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The world’s OCEANS cover 70% of our planet, are the frontline in the battle against climate change, and yet are relatively unknown. Dive down to their deepest depths …

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The dirty secret of clean energy | The Economist

2017-02-24

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The road to a future with an unlimited supply of clean energy is a rocky one. Ed Carr, our deputy editor, explains why energy features on the cover of this week’s The Economist. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films every day of the working week. For …

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The Market Is Not The Economy, But Earnings Are (Closer)

2017-02-23

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2017-02-23

S&P 500 EPS April 1996 - April 2016
My colleague Joe Calhoun likes to remind me that markets and fundamentals only sound like they should be related, an observation that is a correct one on so many different levels. Stock prices, in general, and GDP growth may seem to warrant some kind of expected correlation, but it has proven quite tenuous at times especially in a 21st century sense.

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The Problem with Gold-Backed Currencies

2017-02-23

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2017-02-23

China is debt breakdown
Any currency is only truly "backed by gold" if it is convertible to gold. There is something intuitively appealing about the idea of a gold-backed currency --money backed by the tangible value of gold, i.e. "the gold standard." Instead of intrinsically worthless paper money (fiat currency), gold-backed money would have real, enduring value-it would be "hard currency", i.e. sound money, because it would be convertible to gold itself.

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Corals: the largest organism on the planet

2017-02-23

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From providing much of the oxygen we breathe to hosting myriad forms of life, corals are a critical part of our planet’s eco-system. But they are dying. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The world’s OCEANS cover 70% of our planet, are the frontline in the battle against climate change, and …

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Rex Tillerson: America’s new chief emissary | The Economist

2017-02-23

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Rex Tillerson, America’s secretary of state, will need all his nimble diplomacy when he meets Mexico’s president Enrique Pena Nieto to discuss trade and security. But any calming reassurance could be undermined the next time President Trump tweets. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films every day …

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The Criminalization of Financial Independence

2017-02-22

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2017-02-22

Wage GDP 1950 - 2016
Just as the "war on drugs" criminalized and destroyed large swaths of African-American and Latino communities, the "war on cash" will further criminalize the few remaining avenues to financial independence and freedom. The introduction of "entitlement" welfare in the 1960s generated a toxic dependency on the state that institutionalized worklessness, a one-two punch that undermined marriage and family in America's working class of all ethnicities.

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Saving corals from the effects of climate change

2017-02-22

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With the world’s corals threatened with extinction, scientists are using cutting edge technology to help these planetary treasures make a comeback. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 It covers more than 70% of the earths surface. The ocean is the planet’s lifeblood but its being transformed by climate change. Colonies of …

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The Stinking Politics of It All

2017-02-22

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2017-02-22

Potential Real Gross Domestic Products 1999Q1 - 2017Q1
It is largely irrelevant, but still the political theater is fascinating. As is now standard operating procedure, whatever comes out of the Trump administration immediately is conferred as the standard for awful. This is not my own determination, mind you, but that of the mainstream, whatever that is these days. And so it is with the first set of budget figures that include very robust growth projections, a point of contention and an obvious one...

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How Donald Trump plans to approach Iran | The Economist

2017-02-21

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How much tougher is Trump than Obama when it comes to Iran? Matthew Symonds, our defence and diplomatic editor, explains. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films every day of the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: …

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No Acceleration In Industry, Either

2017-02-20

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2017-02-20

U.S. Industrial Production Jan 2000 - Jan 2017
Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for the latest month might change in the months ahead. Still, even with that in mind, there is no acceleration indicated for US industry.

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United States Economic Freedom Tumbles To Historic Low

2017-02-20

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2017-02-20

United States
After eight years of the regulation-happy Obama administration, the United States has undergone a huge slide into the 17th most economically free country in the world, according to the Heritage Foundation’s 2017 Index of Economic Freedom.

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