Dong Chen

Dong Chen

Dong Chen is senior Asia economist, Pictet Wealth Management. - Twelve years of working experience in macroeconomic research - Extensive knowledge about asset allocation and multi-asset class portfolios - Rich client-facing experiences with high-net-worth clients across Asia - Rigorous training in economics and comprehensive knowledge about Asian economies and business - Strong analytical skills and solid background in statistical/econometric analysis - Strong communication / presentation skills - Native Mandarin Chinese speaker and fluent in English Do not hesitate to contact Pictet for an investment proposal. Please contact Zurich Office, the Geneva Office or one of 26 other offices world-wide.

Articles by Dong Chen

Japan services PMI rebounds strongly in October

The domestic economy is retaining its momentum, but external headwinds are building.The Japanese services purchasing managers index (PMI) rose sharply in October, surging by 2.2 points to 52.4, after a notable drop in September. The manufacturing PMI rose as well, but more moderately, reaching 52.9 in October from 52.4 in September.

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Inflation Environment remains Benign in China

China CPI and Core CPI YoY, 2013 - 2018

The headline consumer price index (CPI) in China picked up slightly in September, rising by 2.5% year-over-year (y-o-y) compared with 2.3% in August, driven by higher food price and fuel prices. Excluding food and energy, core inflation in China actually eased to 1.7% y-o-y in September from 2.0% in August.

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Chinese PMI data points to further growth moderation

Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs

More policy support is expected, and may lead to slight rebound in Q4.China’s manufacturing PMIs softened further in September, indicating that growth momentum is likely continued to moderate in Q3 and that the weakness may extend into Q4.In response to the weakening growth momentum, especially in the context of escalating trade tensions with the US, the Chinese government has turned to policy easing since June.

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China: February PMIs point to deceleration in industrial activity

China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for February, compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in at 50.3, down from 51.3 in January and 51.6 in December 2017. This is the lowest reading of this gauge since October 2016. The Markit PMI (also known as the Caixin PMI), however, edged up slightly to 51.6 in February from 51.5 in the previous month

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China: PMIs suggest moderation in momentum in Q1

Chinese official and Caixin manufacturing PMI, 2011 - 2018

China’s official manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) came in at 51.3 in January, down slightly from December (51.6). The Markit PMI (also known as the Caixin PMI) stayed at 51.5, the same as in the previous month (Chart 1). The official non – manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 55.0 in January from 44.8 the previous month.

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China: 2018 GDP forecast revised up

The Chinese economy ended 2017 on a strong note. In Q4 2017, China’s GDP amounted to Rmb23.4 trillion (about USD3.7 trillion), rising 1.6% over the previous quarter and 6.8% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms. Full-year GDP came in at Rmb82.7 trillion (about USD12.9 trillion), growing by 6.9% in real terms and beating the consensus forecast as well as our own estimate (both at 6.8%).

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China: FX reserves rise again

According to the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China’s FX reserves amounted to USD3.14 trillion at end – December 2017, up USD20.7 billion from the previous month. This marks the 11th consecutive monthly increase in Chinese FX reserves since February 2017.

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The BoJ is sticking to monetary easing

YoY Changes in headline and Core CPI in Japan

The BoJ remains the last major central bank still firmly committed to large-scale monetary easing.After its Monetary Policy Meeting of December 21, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its intention to keep its current monetary easing programme intact. The BOJ will continue with its “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control ”, aiming to achieve and overshoot the core inflation target of 2%.

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