Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Weekly Preview: Punctuated Equilibrium and the Forces of Movement

2016-09-18

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2016-09-18

Shifting intermarket relationships pose challenge for investors. The market is convinced the Fed will not raise rates. Greater uncertainty surrounds the BOJ; there seems less willingness to shock and awe.

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FX Weekly Review, September 12 – 16: U.S. Dollar Resilience Despite Hawkish ECB and bad ISM

2016-09-17

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2016-09-17

The dollar was surprisingly strong this week. This despite a more hawkish ECB, bad U.S. economic data in the ISM surveys.

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Speculators continue reducing Euro shorts

2016-09-17

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2016-09-17

Speculators are reducing their net short Euro positions, since Draghi's comments on inflation. Apparently not only against the dollar but also against the Swiss Franc. This also means that the euro zone may be target real money (like purchases of stocks, real estate and bonds) instead of Switzerland.

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Yellow Lights are Flashing

2016-09-16

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2016-09-16

Bonds are not rallying despite poor US data. Greater chance that Trump gets elected than the Fed hikes next week. Berlin may be more important than Bratislava.

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FX Daily, September 14: Precarious Stabilization

2016-09-14

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2016-09-14

Movers and Shakers, September 14
Swiss ZEW expectations came in better than expected. The value was +2.7 instead of expected negative value. The US dollar advanced yesterday and is in narrow ranges with a mostly softer bias today. The exception is the Japanese yen. Japanese press have reported that more negative rates are under consideration may have contributed to the weakness of the yen.

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Great Graphic: Net Mexican Migration to the US–Not What You Might Think

2016-09-14

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2016-09-14

Net migration from Mexico 2009 to 2014
Net migration of Mexicans into the US has fallen for a decade. The surge in Mexican migration into the US followed on the heels of NAFTA. Although Trump has bounced in the polls, and some see this as negative for the peso, rising US interest rates and the slide in oil price are more important drivers.

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Thoughts on the Price Action

2016-09-14

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2016-09-14

Global interest rates are rising. Something important is happening. It appears to be dollar positive.

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FX Daily, September 13: Much Noise, Weak Signal

2016-09-13

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2016-09-13

The last ECB meeting and Dragh's hawkish comments is for us the main reason of the euro strength, this despite stronger Swiss GDP growth.

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FX Daily, September 12: Markets Off to a Wobbly Start

2016-09-12

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2016-09-12

20160912 Movers and Shakers
The EUR/CHF retreated today together with falling stock prices. When investors sell their stocks and move into cash, then the Swiss Franc very often appreciates. This is the safe haven effect: cash in Swiss Franc is perceived as more secure.

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FX Weekly Preview: Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

2016-09-11

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2016-09-11

Global bonds and global stocks ended last week on a weak note and this will likely carry into this week's activity. The Bank of England meets, but the data may be more important. Oil and commodity prices more generally look vulnerable, and this coupled with higher yields sapped the Australian ad Canadian dollar in the second half of last week.

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Weekly Speculative Postions: CHF net long positions down from 8.2K down to 1.5K

2016-09-10

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2016-09-10

The Swiss Franc depreciated this week again. The euro rose to 1.960. One reason is the reduction in net long CHF speculative position from 8.2K to 1.6K contracts. Given the weak ISM non-manufacturing PMI, it remains unclear. why speculator now move into the dollar.

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FX Weekly Review, September 05 – September 09: Dollar Proves Resilient as Market Rates Rise

2016-09-10

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2016-09-10

It took the market a few days to overcome the shockingly poor non-manufacturing ISM (51.4 vs. 55.5). However, by the end of the week, the US dollar bulls had regained the upper end.

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FX Daily, September 9: Ahead of the Weekend

2016-09-09

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2016-09-09

The US dollar is lower against all the major currencies this week as North American participants close it out. On the day, the dollar is consolidating swings yesterday and is narrowly mixed.Bond yields are higher and equities are mostly lower. The euro has finished lower the last three Fridays. The streak may end today. The euro has found support nearly $1.1260, and the intraday technicals favor a move higher in the US morning.

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FX Daily September 8: Draghi Says Little, Door Still Open for More

2016-09-08

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2016-09-08

In the last two days, the euro moved upwards against CHF. Given that Swiss GDP was stronger than the one in the euro zone, this is surprising. But we must recognize that Draghi could be the reason. Inflation forecasts of 1.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in the euro zone would mean the ECB hikes rates maybe in 2018 or 2019. I personally do not believe it, given that wage inflation in Italy or Spain is clearly under 1%. This is lower than Swiss wage inflation...

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FX Daily, September 07: Dollar Stabilizes, but Hardly Recovers

2016-09-07

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2016-09-07

Disappointing industrial output figures from Germany and UK are helping stabilize the US dollar after yesterday's shellacking. Investors have been fickle about the prospects for a rate hike this month, and the unexpected dramatic slide in the service spurred a downgrading of such expectations, and a flight out of the dollar. It was not simply a quest for yields, though that was part of it. Surely the yen and euro's strength is not a function of...

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Great Graphic: What Kind of Jobs is the US Creating

2016-09-07

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2016-09-07

The oft repeated generalization about the dominance of low paying jobs is not true for the last few years. This does note refute the disparity of wealth and income in the US. There is a restructuring taking place that favors educated and skilled workers.

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FX Daily, September 6: Dollar Heavy in Quiet Markets

2016-09-06

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2016-09-06

The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the major and emerging market currencies. However, the losses are modest, and the greenback remains within recent ranges. The Antipodean and Scandi bloc currencies are performing best.

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Services ISM Sends Greenback Reeling

2016-09-06

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2016-09-06

ISM showed unexpected weakness in Aug non-mfg PMI. Markit measure slipped but not as much as ISM. Odds of a Sept Fed hike slip to about 15%. Watch trendline in Dollar Index near 94.45.

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FX Daily, September 5: While Americans were Celebrating Labor Day

2016-09-06

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2016-09-06

There were several developments that took place while US markets were closed for its Labor Day holiday. Most of the economic news was favorable. This included a strong snap back in the UK service PMI, more evidence that the moral suasion campaign to lift wages in Japan is yielding some success and a rise in the Caixin's China's service PMI.

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