Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Weekly Preview: Parsing Divergence: Focus Shifts from Fed to ECB

2016-09-04

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2016-09-04

Net-net, the September Fed funds futures contract was little changed on the week. Four high-income central banks meet in the week ahead; the ECB is the only one in play. China accounted for a full three quarters of the US trade deficit in July.

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FX Weekly Review, August 29 – September 2: Disappointing Jobs Data Doesn’t Break the Buck

2016-09-04

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2016-09-04

During this week the Swiss Franc index lost against both dollar and euro. The CHF index ended one percent down. Despite not convincing US jobs, the dollar index ended in positive territory.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Rising Swiss Franc Longs

2016-09-03

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2016-09-03

Speculative activity remained light in the latest CFTC reporting period ending August 30. There were no gross position adjustments that we recognize as significant; 10k contracts or more. There were only three gross adjustments by speculators of more than 4k contracts. With the higher EUR/CHF FX rate and weaker U.S. jobs date, speculators went long CHF by 8.2K contracts.

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Forex trading can be like football. You win some. You lose some.

2016-09-03

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Sometimes risking a little more, works out for you too In the US, the college football season is getting underway on Saturday. Yippee. A comment from an Attacking Currency Trend trader reminded me of conversations I have had with my son, a college football coach. The comment was about a trade that got stopped out …

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US Jobs Disappoint, Risk of Sept Hike Recedes, Dollar Falls

2016-09-03

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2016-09-03

U.S. Unemployment Rate
Underlying concerns about US labor market ease after two robust reports. Sept Fed views will not change much. Canada’s data is disappointing, BOC optimism may be challenged.

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FX Daily, September 2: US Jobs Data–Higher Anxiety, Thank You Mr. Fischer

2016-09-02

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2016-09-02

Movers and Shakers 2016 September 02
The US dollar is little changed ahead of the job report. Our near-term bias is for a lower dollar. Sterling is flat and is holding on to about a 1% gain this week. The Japanese yen is about a 0.3% lower and is off 1.7% this week. The euro was coming into today for the week.

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FX Daily, September 01: A Couple of Surprises to Start the New Month

2016-09-01

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2016-09-01

The new month has begun with a couple of surprises. The biggest surprise has been the record jump in the UK manufacturing PMI to 53.3 from 48.3. A much smaller rebound was expected in August after the Brexit shock drop in July.

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FX Daily, August 31: Dollar Bides Times, Month-End at Hand, Jobs Data Ahead

2016-08-31

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2016-08-31

The US dollar is a little softer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The exception is the Japanese yen, where the greenback has moved above JPY103 for the first time in a month. The tone is consolidative as the market awaits assurances that the jobs growth this month has been sufficiently strong as to keep the prospects of a September meeting still alive.

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Great Graphic: Oil is Looking Crude

2016-08-31

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2016-08-31

Oil is breaking down. Doubts are growing over output freezes while US inventories rise. The technicals are poor.

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Spain’s Political Deadlock Likely Leads to Third Election

2016-08-31

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2016-08-31

Rajoy is hoping to form a minority government this week. It seems unlikely to succeed, which could lead to an election on Christmas. Regional elections and corruption trials may change Spain's political dynamics.

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BOC Governor Stephen Poloz gets testy on exports

2016-08-31

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Poloz is asked about weak non-commodity exports and gets defensive.

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FX Daily, August 30: Greenback Remains Firm, Awaiting Fresh Cues

2016-08-30

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2016-08-30

The US dollar is trading firmly, largely within yesterday's ranges. The odds implied by the September Fed fund futures eased to 36% from 42% before the weekend, but ahead of Fischer's Bloomberg TV appearance, and tomorrow's ADP employment estimate, the market seems cautious about fading the dollar's strength.

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Natural Rates and Terminal Fed Funds

2016-08-30

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2016-08-30

The neutral or natural interest rate is linked to potential growth. Potential growth has fallen so has the neutral rate. The implication is that the FOMC has made the bulk of the adjustment on its long-term Fed funds forecast.

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FX Daily, August 29: Dollar Gains Extended, but Momentum Fades

2016-08-29

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2016-08-29

The US dollar staged a strong pre-weekend rally on hints that the Fed will raise rates before the end of the year. There was initially follow through dollar buying in Asia before a more stable tone emerged in Europe, where London markets are closed for a bank holiday. The easing of the dollar’s upside momentum may set the stage for a bout of profit-taking later today and tomorrow.

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Great Graphic: Low Wages in US Rising

2016-08-29

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2016-08-29

The bottom of the US wage scale is rising. The added wage costs are being blunted by less staff turnover, hiring and training costs. It is consistent with our expectation of higher price pressures.

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FX Weekly Preview: Yellen Pushes Divergence Front and Center

2016-08-28

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2016-08-28

The summer dynamics of the capital markets has changed by the enhanced prospects of a Fed hike. Equity markets and other risk assets look particularly vulnerable. Sterling may do better against the euro than the dollar.

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FX Weekly Review, August 22 – August 26: Swiss Franc Loses Most Gains Again

2016-08-28

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2016-08-28

After winning 5% against the dollar index last week, the Swiss Franc index lost 3% again. CHF lost against both USD and EUR. Reason: An increased probability of a rate hike in the U.S.

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Weeky Speculative Positions: Euro Shorts Trimmed, More Sterling Shorts, Long CHF again

2016-08-27

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2016-08-27

Three weeks ago speculators went net short in CHF, when the U.S. jobs report was published. Now the net position shifted to long again. Last week GBP shorts increased but Euro Shorts were reduced.

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Video of the purported Yemen attack on a Saudi oil facility

2016-08-26

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This video was originally posted to Facebook with the caption: By the grace of Allah, Just about an hour ago, a video from inside Najran city for #Aramco oil company burning by a Yemeni ballistic missile “Zelzal-3″, Friday 26-8-2016. The video shows a huge fire on the oil tanks .. Note the oil tanks at …

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FX Daily, August 26: And now for Yellen…

2016-08-26

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2016-08-26

Yellen's presentation at Jackson Hole today is the highlight of the week. It also marks the end of the summer for many North American and European investors. It may be a bit of a rolling start for US participants, until after Labor Day. However, with US employment data next Friday, many will return in spirit if not in body.

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