2026-04-11
đ At a Glance đïž Market Brief – Stocks Surge On Relief Note: I am traveling home from the UK today, so this week’s missive will be short. Also, I had to write it on Friday before the U.S. markets officially closed. So, any discrepancies will be corrected next week when the full newsletter returns …
Read More »2026-04-10
Last week, we discussed the risk of an oil shock leading to a recession. To wit: “After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got …
Read More »2026-04-06
Last week, the stock market rally was one of the best performances in nearly a year. The S&P 500 surged 3.4%, the Nasdaq climbed 4.4%, and the bulls declared the correction over. As I have stated before, having watched markets for more than 35 years, I have come to recognize the difference between a relief …
Read More »2026-04-04
đ At a Glance đïž Market Brief – Market Rebounds On Resolution Hopes March closed as the worst quarter for the S&P 500 since 2022, with the index down roughly 7% on the quarter and every member of the Magnificent Seven finishing in the red. This past holiday-shortened trading week saw a sharp reflexive relief …
Read More »2026-04-03
After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump …
Read More »2026-03-30
The S&P 500 is down roughly 7% from its January 27 all-time high. Unsurprisingly, the media is full of “red” headlines discussing the seemingly “endless” correction we are in. Unsurprisingly, previously complacent investors are now anxious, as nothing seems to be working. But that index-level headline conceals something far more alarming: stock market breadth has …
Read More »2026-03-28
đ At a Glance đïž Market Brief – A Tough Market Week This past week was another disappointing one. Markets opened the week surging after President Trump posted on Truth Social that U.S.-Iran talks had been “very good and productive” and that he was halting strikes on Iranian power plants. Brent crude fell more than …
Read More »2026-03-27
The fiat currency collapse narrative is one of the most emotionally satisfying arguments in all of financial punditry. It feels intellectually rigorous, draws on genuine history, and speaks to deep and legitimate anxieties about government overreach, monetary recklessness, and the long-term consequences of unlimited debt creation. Monetary analyst John Rubino makes the case as well …
Read More »2026-03-23
There are hundreds of technical indicators that market analysts track, but only one gets a live television chyron the moment it breaks. The 200-day moving average (200-DMA) is the single most widely followed technical level in global financial markets, and the reason isn’t mystical; it’s institutional. Quant funds, pension allocators, programmatic traders, systemic funds, and …
Read More »2026-03-21
đ At a Glance đïž Market Brief – A Tough Market Week This week gave investors a brief exhale â and then took it back as Monday opened with genuine relief after news broke that a U.S.-led coalition would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. On that news, oil pulled back sharply, the S&P …
Read More »2026-03-20
Every few months, a headline appears declaring that the U.S. dollarâs reign as the worldâs reserve currency is over. China is dumping Treasuries. Central banks are hoarding gold. The BRICS are building a new monetary order. The sanctions that froze $300 billion of Russiaâs reserves in 2022 proved, the argument goes, that dollar-denominated assets are …
Read More »2026-03-16
This past weekend, Adam Taggart and I discussed what happens to Treasury bond yields when the United States enters a military conflict. The conventional wisdom is reflexive and tidy. A conflict triggers a flight to safety, money floods into U.S. government bonds, and yields fall. Itâs a clean narrative. Unfortunately, it is wrong more than …
Read More »2026-03-14
The S&P 500 extended its losing streak to three consecutive weeks, the first such run in roughly a year. The convergence of geopolitical shock, private credit stress, and deteriorating economic data gave investors little reason to buy the dip. The post Oil Volatility And The Market Impact appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2026-03-13
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned. The post Fitzpatrick: Soros CEO & CIO Warns of a Reckoning appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2026-03-09
The S&P 500 closed at 6,740 on Friday, its lowest level since mid-December, as technical deterioration, collapsing payrolls, and $100 oil converged on the charts. Every major moving average has broken. Hereâs what comes next. The S&P 500 closed at […] The post Technical Deterioration: Risk Management Is Key appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2026-03-07
đ At a Glance Give Us A Review ***** If you enjoy our work each week, could you be so kind as to leave us a review? It would be most appreciated. đïž Market Brief – Markets Navigate Military Conflict It was a brutal week on Wall Street. The S&P 500 finished at its lowest close …
Read More »2026-03-06
The âfiat is dyingâ argument has become a catchphrase narrative among digital asset bulls, gold bugs, and cryptocurrency advocates. That narrative’s core is that central banks have printed vast amounts of money. The “money printing” has led to currency debasement and rendered the U.S. dollar obsolete. We discussed this “debasement” narrative previously. The narrative is …
Read More »2026-03-02
A specter is haunting Wall Streetâthe specter of the âSaaSpocalypse.â Since the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) peaked on September 19, 2025, it has fallen roughly 30%. For context, the broad technology indexes like XLK and QQQ are essentially flat over the same period, and the semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up 30%. Between mid-January …
Read More »2026-02-28
đ At a Glance Give Us A Review ***** If you enjoy our work each week, could you be so kind as to leave us a review? It would be most appreciated. đïž Market Brief – Turmoil In AI Stocks As we will discuss further in today’s commentary, the market remains stuck in a fairly narrow …
Read More »2026-02-27
Economic growth metrics for the United States have recently shown surprising resilience; however, consumers’ economic sentiment has not. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate, real Gross Domestic Product expanded at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, well below expectations and a steep drop from the 4.4% pace in the third quarter. However, …
Read More »2026-02-23
“China is dumping US Treasuries to get out of the dollar.” This claim has been circulating the mainstream feeds lately, with the narrative that the “end of the dollar is near,” or “the US will lose its funding base” and the “bond yields will surge.” But are those claims valid? Such is what we will …
Read More »2026-02-21
đ At a Glance đïž Market Brief – War With Iran On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down Trumpâs signature tariffs. The ruling affects tariffs levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) which includes the so-called reciprocal tariffs at various levels against nations all around the world to address trade imbalances, as well …
Read More »2026-02-20
Money – everybody wants it, but few actually have it. As shown in recent financial statistics, the “wealth gap” in America continues to grow between the “haves” and the “have-nots.” That gap has led to a bombardment of narratives explaining why younger generations are financially oppressed. As shown, the top 10% of income earners own …
Read More »2026-02-16
Since the beginning of the year, we have discussed the “reflation trade” and its impact on specific market sectors. This past weekend’s newsletter also showed some of these more extreme returns in various market sectors since the beginning of the year. To wit: “Despite what seemed like a rough week in the market, it really wasnât as …
Read More »2026-02-14
đ At a Glance đïž Market Brief – February Lives Up To Its Name We noted last week that February tends to be a weaker month for returns. So far, it has certainly lived up to its name. This past week opened with investors selling technology, and particularly software stocks, to buy value sectors. Energy, …
Read More »2026-02-13
The article from the Wall Street Journal titled âWhy My Generation Is Turning to Financial Nihilismâ by Kyla Scanlon argues that Gen Z is embracing high-risk financial behavior out of despair and detachment. Of course, it is essential to recognize that Kyla, although well-intentioned, is a young twenty-something influencer with limited real-life experience, and sees …
Read More »2026-02-09
For nearly two years, markets were driven by the same speculative narrative that “this time is different.â Bitcoin, precious metals, and AI-linked equities rose not only because of robust fundamentals, but also because investors clung to powerful narratives about inflation, disruption, and monetary collapse. Those speculative narratives are not only seductive but also contribute to …
Read More »2026-02-07
đ At a Glance đïž Market Brief – Market Volatility Returns Markets stumbled into February, a historically weak month. February tends to deliver modest returns, with average performance trailing the stronger gains typically seen in January and March. Seasonal tailwinds, such as earnings season and new-year fund flows, begin to fade, while macro headwinds, such …
Read More »2026-02-06
The market got off to a strong start in 2026, with investors chasing industrials, materials, and commodity-related stocks as the reflation narrative gained traction. The “reflation narrative” is the belief that a range of policies will boost the rate of economic growth in the U.S. without triggering inflation. As I discussed at our recent 2026 …
Read More »2026-02-02
Market cycles are once again at the center of the investment narrative as we head into 2026. The optimism is familiar as earnings held up in 2025, the economy avoided recession, and big tech lifted the indexes. However, those victories are already reflected in the price. As we head into 2026, with valuations extended, the …
Read More »2026-01-31
đ At a Glance đïž Market Brief – Market Volatility Returns Markets ended the week mixed as investors processed the Federal Reserveâs latest policy decision, rising geopolitical tensions, and the early results of the S&P 500 earnings season. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50â3.75 percent, as expected. Chair Jerome Powell maintained …
Read More »2026-01-30
Mainstream expectations, those from Wall Street, economists, and corporate strategists, have congealed around a bullish economic outlook for 2026. Most forecasts project stronger economic growth, with contained inflation, and continued investment in technology and capital expenditure. As such, many institutional investors interpret this as a year of opportunity for markets and corporate earnings.That was a …
Read More »2026-01-26
The year ahead presents both a bullish and bearish case for investors. Will 2026 be another year of above-average returns, or will it be a year of disappointment? The bulls argue that the key ingredients for a sustained rally are in place. A powerful technology cycle, aggressive corporate spending, and supportive policy measures all point …
Read More »2026-01-24
đ At a Glance đïž Market Brief – The “Greenland” Impact This week’s markets were driven by headline risk, economic uncertainty, and the early innings of earnings season. With the markets closed last Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday, U.S. equities sold off sharply on Tuesday. President Trumpâs tariff threats against key European allies, …
Read More »2026-01-23
I have been a “South Park” fan for as long as I can remember, and while the show isn’t a market guidebook, its brutal satire cuts through nonsense better than many Wall Street commentaries. Just like on the show, characters make absurd decisions and face absurd consequences, which is familiar to investors today. For example, …
Read More »2026-01-17
Sector rotation is this weekend’s 2026 Investment Summit. I am presenting at the conference as you are reading this. However, I would be remiss not to share a brief market update as we head into next week. The full newsletter will return next week. That said, U.S. equity markets delivered mixed performance last week. Major …
Read More »2026-01-16
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned. The post AI Productivity, Employment and UBI appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2026-01-12
The Wall Street consensus forecast for 2026 earnings growth is strong by historical standards. Analysts are giddy and projecting another year of double-digit growth in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). FactSetâs most recent data showed an expected 2026 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 of about 15 percent. That is well above the …
Read More »2026-01-10
đ At a Glance đŹ Don’t Miss Our Upcoming “Live & In Person” Investing Summit Our 2026 Summit is THIS COMING WEEKEND and is a limited-seating event, so secure your tickets now before they sell out. Topics Include: I look forward to seeing you there. đïž Market Brief – Market Starts Off The Year With …
Read More »2026-01-09
Every January, it happens like clockwork: you drive by gym parking lots that look like a Taylor Swift concert. Go to the store, and the salad aisles are ransacked like thereâs a lettuce shortage, and half of your coworkers suddenly start quoting Warren Buffett while buying stock in companies they canât spell. You got it, …
Read More »2026-01-05
In 2025, the prices of precious metals rose sharply, with silver prices recently surging past $80 per ounce. Of course, when precious metals rise, there is always the same group of commentators (mostly paid newsletter writers and physical metal dealers) to declare that a financial breakdown is underway. Articles like those published on ZeroHedge by …
Read More »2026-01-03
đ At a Glance đŹ Don’t Miss Our Upcoming “Live & In Person” Summit Our 2026 Summit is a limited-seating event, so secure your tickets now before they sell out. Topics Include: I look forward to seeing you there. đïž Market Brief – Strong Year-End Returns Lead to Bullish Market Outlooks Let’s start this week …
Read More »2025-12-29
There is a rising market risk in 2026 that is largely overlooked as we wrap up this year. As discussed in the “Fed’s Soft Landing Narrative,” optimism about 2026 is running high. Currently, investors are pricing in strong economic growth, robust earnings, and a smooth path of disinflation. Notably, Wall Street estimates suggest a significant …
Read More »2025-12-27
đ At a Glance đŹ Editor Note I am traveling this weekend for the Christmas holidays with the family. Therefore, I don’t have access to all of my usual data and analysis. However, I did not want to miss the opportunity to send you at least a short note. The following Market Brief and Technical …
Read More »2025-12-22
Itâs that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and begins predicting returns for 2026. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, which would be unwise for fee-based product revenues, these forecasts are often inaccurate and sometimes significantly wrong. Let’s review some previous years. For example, on December 7th, 2021, …
Read More »2025-12-20
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-12-19
Over the last couple of years, inflation alarmists such as Paul Tudor Jones, James Grant, and Jeff Gundlach have all said that inflation is returning with force. In different ways, they each stated that they would not own Treasury bonds due to the expectation that inflation would rise as the dollar declined due to the …
Read More »2025-12-15
During extended upward-trending markets that reward risk-takers and punish caution, everyone is a “bull market genius.” That dynamic flips investor psychology and, over time, creates a false sense of control. As the market continues to climb, risk appears to vanish, and investors believe that nothing can go wrong, leading them to take on increasing levels …
Read More »2025-12-13
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-12-12
As someone who views corporate finance through a pragmatic lens, Iâve been closely watching the current surge in capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). The question Iâm addressing here is this: when a company spends massive amounts of free cash flow and takes on increasing debt, in this case for AI CapEx, does …
Read More »2025-12-08
A recent article by Simon White, via Bloomberg, discussed the rising cost of margin debt for investors. While his analysis below compares the cost of debt to GDP, we will also consider a more critical comparison to disposable personal income (DPI). Here is Simon’s point. “Yet, where history does raise a red flag is if …
Read More »2025-12-06
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-12-05
With the federal government shutdown delaying critical economic reports, the official jobs data remains incomplete. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September jobs report. However, the October report, originally expected earlier this month, remains in limbo, potentially permanently. The reason is due to the shutdown, as the BLS was unable to …
Read More »2025-12-01
One of my favorite writers for the WSJ is Spencer Jakab, who recently penned an article explaining why a bear market is not necessarily a bad thing. He starts with a quote from “The Godfather.” “âThese things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad bloodâŠbeen ten …
Read More »2025-11-29
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-11-24
Weâre hearing it everywhere: AI is in a bubble. The surge in capital, the parabolic stock charts, and the bold claims from CEOs all have a familiar rhythm. Nvidiaâs valuation has soared, along with AI-related startups raising billions with little to no revenue. Investment in data centers, chips, and infrastructure is happening at a scale …
Read More »2025-11-22
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-11-21
The U.S. economyâs recent growth has a distinctive engine: largeâscale capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). Firms such as Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms, and Amazon have announced massive investments in data centers, servers, networking equipment, and AI infrastructure. As noted by Investing.com: “Artificial intelligence is consuming capital faster than investors can recalibrate. …
Read More »2025-11-17
Last week, we discussed the importance of “math” as it relates to valuations and noted the importance of understanding “full market cycles.” To wit: “The math on forward return expectations, given current valuation levels, does not hold up.  The assumption that valuations can fall without the price of the markets being negatively impacted is also grossly flawed. …
Read More »2025-11-15
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-11-14
Over the past two weeks, weâve addressed a persistent question: if the data signals weakness, why hasnât the recession arrived? In “Slowdown Signals: Are Leading Indicators Flashing Red?” we examined the cracks forming beneath the economy’s surface. From deteriorating leading indicators to credit stress and cooling employment metrics, the evidence supported a cautious stance. In …
Read More »2025-11-10
During strongly trending bull markets, investors often overlook the importance of math in predicting forward returns. Such is easy to do when the market just seemingly continues to rise without regard to fundamentals. The current environment is also heavily influenced by the impact of “passive indexing,” which has distorted market dynamics as well. However, none …
Read More »2025-11-08
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-11-07
I recently penned an article on “Money Supply Growth,” which elicited a very thoughtful response from Garrett Baldwin via Substack. He argued that labeling Federal Reserve operations as “money printing” is not rhetoric, but rather a reality. He points to Ben Bernankeâs 2010 interview, where Bernanke described how the Fed marks up digital accounts. But …
Read More »2025-11-03
Classical conditioning teaches us a valuable lesson regarding the current investor dilemma. Pavlov’s research discovered a basic psychological rule: when a neutral stimulus is repeatedly paired with a rewardâstimulus, eventually it will trigger the same response even when the reward is absent. The famed experiment by Ivan Pavlov illustrated that dogs would salivate at the …
Read More »2025-11-01
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-10-31
In case you haven’t heard, precious metals, particularly gold, have risen sharply this year. Of course, whenever any asset class experiences a more speculative melt-up, investors are quick to rationalize why “this time is different.” In stocks, it is about “artificial intelligence” and “data centers.” The cryptocurrency community believes all fiat currencies will fail and …
Read More »2025-10-27
We live in what Brett Arends claimed as “The Dumbest Stock Market In History,” but I believe it is potentially the most dangerous era. That phrase is not hyperbole as it reflects structural distortion, extreme valuations, and an investor base intoxicated by momentum and narrative. The MarketWatch piece puts it bluntly: âAt one level, there …
Read More »2025-10-25
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-10-24
Recently, MarketWatch ran a provocative headline: âWhen the worldâs largest asset manager and the Bond King both agree: Run to gold, silver, and bitcoin.â The article highlighted how Larry Finkâs BlackRock and Jeffrey Gundlach, often dubbed the âBond King,â see deficits and âmoney printingâ as reasons for investors to escape fiat currencies and pile into …
Read More »2025-10-20
The recent market crack certainly woke up the more complacent bullish investors. Of course, the complacency was warranted, given the recent market surge, conversations about âTINAâ (There Is No Alternative), and how âthis time is different.â But that is what a speculative bull run looks and feels like. However, deep inside, you know there are …
Read More »2025-10-18
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-10-17
Every market cycle eventually changes investor psychology to believe risk has been conquered. The storylines may change, from âthis time itâs differentâ to âthe Fed has our back,â but the psychology does not. When markets rise steadily and volatility remains low, investors confuse stability with safety. Thatâs precisely the illusion forming in markets today. The …
Read More »2025-10-13
Following Friday’s selloff amid the resurgence of tariff threats on China, I asked ChatGPT a simple question:Â ” How to Stay Calm In The Stock Market?” That simple question generated an engaging and humorous take on financial advice for navigating volatile markets. In this week’s post, I thought it would be helpful to review ChatGPT’s advice …
Read More »2025-10-11
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-10-10
If you want to understand where we are in the cycle, skip the noise and follow profits. Corporate profits are the lifeblood of investment, hiring, and market returns. Crucially, linkage to the real economy is very tight. In the national accounts (NIPA), the BEAâs âprofits from current productionâ (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) …
Read More »2025-10-06
When bear market losses occur, headlines talk in percentages: âThe market dropped 20âŻ%.â Investors nod. A 20âŻ% decline sounds manageable, historical, and expected. As Ben Carlson recently penned: “Bear markets have some symmetry to them, at least in the short-term. In the long term, bull markets versus bear markets are asymmetric. Things are not balanced. Look at …
Read More »2025-10-04
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-10-03
Over the past three years, the economic conversation has been a “promised recession.” If you read the headlines, tracked economist surveys, or even listened to Wall Street strategists, you would have assumed a downturn was imminent. Many investors, bloggers, and YouTubers have had a “parade of horribles” promising a recession is just on the horizon.The logic was …
Read More »2025-09-29
In the world of technical analysis, there is one reliable indicator for measuring market risk. The relative strength index (RSI) measures overextension (in either direction). Developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, the RSI is a momentum oscillator. As such, it measures the velocity and magnitude of price changes, plotting those on a scale from 0 …
Read More »2025-09-27
At a Glance Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? Email: [email protected] Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue!
Read More »2025-09-26
Lately, thereâs been a growing sense of confidence among investors that the U.S. economy has dodged the proverbial bullet. Despite a historic rate-hiking cycle by the Federal Reserve, two years of stubborn inflation, and signs of strain in global trade, the dominant Wall Street narrative is now a curious mix of âsoft landing,â âno landing,â …
Read More »2025-09-22
Just recently, Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities wrote an excellent piece discussing the bull versus the bear case for the markets. You look at the markets today and see a tension between expectation and reality. On one hand, equitiesâespecially tech and growthâare pushing to fresh highs. Optimism about rate cuts, AI and productivity gains, global …
Read More »2025-09-20
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-09-19
Could data centers and the power grid be America’s next “renaissance?” With the U.S. national debt exceeding $37 trillion and interest payments surpassing defense spending, many articles have been written about the “debt doomsday” event coming. Such was a point we made in “The Debt and Deficit Problem.” “In recent months, much debate has been …
Read More »2025-09-15
Investing is about choices. Every investor faces the same challenge: how to grow wealth while controlling risk. Over the years, distinct approaches have proven effective, though none guarantee success. Some strategies require patience. Others demand discipline in timing and execution. A few provide stability and income. There is no right or wrong way to invest, …
Read More »2025-09-13
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-09-12
The latest employment data strongly warned of a potential corporate earnings slowdown ahead. This is the first time we have warned about the employment data and its impact on corporate earnings. In May, we penned “Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing.” wherein we stated: “Given the importance of consumption in the economy and that employment (production) must come …
Read More »2025-09-08
Diversification has been the backbone of “buy and hold” strategies for the last few decades. It was a boon to financial advisors who couldn’t actively manage portfolios, and it created a massive Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) industry that allowed for even further simplification of investing. The message was basic: “Buy a basket of assets, dollar cost …
Read More »2025-09-06
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-09-05
A recent post from Daniel Lacalle, âHow Keynesians Got The US Economy Wrong Again,â exposed the widening gap between John Maynard Keynes’ economic theory and reality. Despite the confident forecasts of leading Keynesian economists, the U.S. economy in 2025 continues to defy expectations. The Federal Reserveâs tightening cycle failed to trigger the widely predicted âhard …
Read More »2025-09-01
Alfonoso Peccatiello recently wrote an interesting piece on portfolio risk management, starting with a quote from Steve Cohen: ââI compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55 percent range. That means youâre going to be wrong a …
Read More »2025-08-30
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-08-29
What are energy prices telling us about the economy? A recent article on Bloomberg noted that: “Hedge funds slashed their bullish position on crude to the lowest in about 17 years as risks of additional sanctions on Russian crude oil waned, bringing concerns about a global supply glut back to the fore. Money managersâ net-long position on …
Read More »2025-08-25
“Buy Every Dip” has lately been the “Siren’s Song” for this market. Such is seen in the flows into ETFs over the course of this year. Retail investors treat pullbacks as temporary noise, and their behavior borders on mechanical. Every sell-off is seen as an opportunity, not a warning. Meanwhile, institutional managers sit it out. …
Read More »2025-08-23
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-08-22
The latest economic data suggests the US economy is decelerating. That means growth is slowing, jobs are shrinking, and households are spending less. As we showed in a recent #BullBearReport, economic growth, inflation, and personal consumption are trending lower. Unsurprisingly, with job growth weakening, consumer sentiment also took a hit in the latest report, with …
Read More »2025-08-18
There is little doubt that excess bullishness has invaded the general market psyche. Just a couple of months following the market decline in March and April, where sentiment turned exceedingly bearish, the S&P 500 hovers near its highs. Furthermore, analysts are rushing to raise price targets to 7,000 or more.
Read More »2025-08-16
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-08-15
Mainstream commentary repeats a simple refrain: âBuybacks return capital to shareholders.â The logic sounds convincing. A company reduces its outstanding shares, giving each shareholder a larger slice of the earnings pie. But as Iâve discussed in past work like âStock Buybacks Aren’t Bad, Just Misused,â the reality is more complex. If corporate buybacks were an …
Read More »2025-08-11
Meme stock trading has returned in force. As discussed last week, the fear of missing out (FOMO) continues to dominate investor sentiment. The meme stock movement is again dominated by speculative retail trading driven by online forums, social media hype, and short-term momentum. Unlike GameStop and AMC in 2021, the current cycle revolves around names …
Read More »2025-08-09
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-08-08
In recent months, much debate has been about rising debt and increasing deficit levels in the U.S. For example, here is a recent headline from CNBC: The article’s author suggests that U.S. federal deficits are ballooning, with spending surging due to the combined impact of tax cuts, expansive stimulus, and entitlement expenditures. Of course, with …
Read More »2025-08-04
As the turn of the calendar occurred on Friday, the bull streak for the market since the April lows ended. Such was not unexpected, and the correction has been a topic of discussion in our #DailyMarketCommentary over the last two weeks. To wit: “While the overall backdrop remains bullish, including stable economic growth and earnings, …
Read More »2025-08-02
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-08-01
Over the past year, financial headlines continue to flood investors with doomsday predictions about the U.S. dollar. Whether it’s social media influencers waving “dollar collapse” charts or YouTube personalities warning about debasement, the noise has become deafening. The narrative is seductive: inflation is out of control, the government is printing money, and the dollar is on its last legs.
Read More »2025-07-28
When markets declineâespecially after long periods of sustained growthâthe familiar advice resurfaces: “Be patient. Stay invested. Ride it out.” The rationale? The market always goes up over time. But there’s a critical flaw in this narrative. Your portfolio and a portfolio benchmark are entirely different things. And portfolio benchmarking, or the constant comparison of your …
Read More »2025-07-26
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-07-25
In July 2007, just before the financial crisis erupted, Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince summed up Wall Street’s dangerous exuberance: âWhen the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.â Eighteen years later, Wall Street is …
Read More »2025-07-21
Retail speculation is once again gripping the markets. A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted how the latest retail gambling vehicleâzero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) optionsâhas exploded in popularity. According to CBOE, trading volumes in these contracts have surged nearly sixfold over the past five years, with retail traders now accounting for more than half of all transactions. …
Read More »2025-07-19
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž …
Read More »2025-07-18
Few are as candid and historically accurate as hedge fund manager Kyle Bass when identifying structural breaks in the global economy. In a recent interview, Bass painted a grim but telling picture of China’s economic condition, warning: âWe are witnessing the largest macroeconomic imbalances the world has ever seen, and they are all coming to …
Read More »2025-07-14
A couple of years ago, I wrote about absolute versus relative returns. Given the latest market run, I am getting a lot of questions about chasing returns, and individuals comparing themselves to the S&P 500 index. Historically, trying to beat a benchmark index leads to poor outcomes. However, understanding absolute and relative returns can help …
Read More »2025-07-12
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đ …
Read More »2025-07-11
Next week, the Q2-2025 earnings season will begin in earnest as a barrage of S&P 500 companies report, starting with the Wall Street money center banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since earnings drive the market by supporting investor expectations, what […] The post Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2025-07-07
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the âdeath of U.S. exceptionalism.â Early 2025 saw a sharp shift in investor sentiment. Concerns over erratic trade policy, soaring debt, and weakening dollar pressure challenged Americaâs long-standing market dominance. Markets fell sharply in April and May, feeding a narrative of declining “US …
Read More »2025-07-04
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đ …
Read More »2025-06-30
On June 25th, the Federal Reserve quietly announced a significant change to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). While the headlines were muted, the implications for the U.S. Treasury market were anything but. For sophisticated investors, this technical shift marks a subtle but powerful pivot in monetary mechanics. It could create demand for Treasuries, improve market …
Read More »2025-06-28
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đ …
Read More »2025-06-27
In 2023 and 2024, the Fed was under intense public and media scrutiny for calling the post-pandemic surge in inflation âtransitory.â Critics argued that the Fed’s failure to anticipate the persistence and severity of rising prices undermined its credibility. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight and historical context, the Fed’s position wasn’t entirely misguided. Inflation …
Read More »2025-06-23
Over the weekend, the U.S. launched strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Currently, I only have the details reported by major mainstream outlets. However, given that stock market futures are trading sharply lower on Sunday, I wanted to get something in print before the market opens relating to navigating this event over the next few days.
Read More »2025-06-21
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Back To Extreme Optimism Last week, we discussed that the bull rally continues despite all of the negative narratives lately, from tariffs to the deficit to the potential onset of WWIII. “The market’s bullish trend continued this week, and it is rapidly approaching all-time highs.
Read More »2025-06-20
The narrative surrounding the “dollar’s death” as the world’s reserve currency has been on the rise recently. However, this happens whenever the dollar declines relative to other currencies. We previously wrote about the false claims of the “dollar’s death” in 2023 (see here, here, and here). The recent decline in the dollar relative to other currencies is well within historical norms.
Read More »2025-06-16
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israelâs airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran. The Dow dropped nearly 2%, the S&P 500 lost over 1%, and oil prices surged by …
Read More »2025-06-13
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence. The “deficit narrative” has dominated the media lately as President …
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Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Risk/Reward Favors Patience I am traveling this weekend, so we are producing our weekly report a day early. As such, some charts using end-of-week data are using either Thursday or mid-Friday prices. All report will return to normal next week. Let’s start with where we left off last week.” …
Read More »2025-06-09
Recently, I did an interview about “buying the dip” in the market, which generated many comments. Most were, “You’re stupid; the market is going to crash,” but one comment deserved a more thorough discussion. “When buying the dip, how do you know when to do it, or not?” That is the right question. Of course, you will never know …
Read More »2025-06-07
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Breakout! Next Stop, Previous Highs Last week, we discussed the successful test of the 200-DMA. “Most notably, this past week was the successful test of the 200-DMA. The pullback to that previous broken resistance level and subsequent bounce highly suggests that the April correction is complete and that market …
Read More »2025-06-06
It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings. As discussed recently, S&P Global’s current estimates show earnings are growing far above the long-term exponential growth …
Read More »2025-06-02
Buying stocks is always hard. Particularly during corrections. Or, near market peaks. Or, when stocks are falling. And when they are rising. Oh, buying stocks is also tricky when valuations are high. And when they are low. You get the point. There is never the right time when it comes to buying stocks. I recently …
Read More »2025-05-31
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report A Successful Test Last week, we discussed how this seems to be an “unstoppable” bull market. However, that doesn’t mean markets won’t pause before attempting to move higher. As we noted last week, the consolidation was expected. “Even with Bessent’s comments, that market remains overbought in the short term, …
Read More »2025-05-30
Ray Dalio, the former head of Bridgewater Associates, is back in the media, trying to stay relevant by claiming the “deficit has become critical.” “ âItâs like … Iâm a doctor, and Iâm looking at the patient, and Iâve said, youâre having this accumulation, and I can tell you that this is very, very serious, and …
Read More »2025-05-26
Is this a “stealth” bear market? Of course, you may be asking yourself what I mean by that. Historically, bear markets have tended to be pretty evident, as highlighted in the chart below. These bear markets are often more protracted affairs that lead to investors developing profoundly negative sentiment towards markets. This article will use …
Read More »2025-05-24
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Even Trump Can’t Kill The Rally Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following the correction. As we noted: “This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken. However, as …
Read More »2025-05-23
Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With the media constantly pushing a âMarkets In Turmoilâ narrative, itâs no wonder that investor sentiment recently reached some of the lowest levels since the financial crisis. The following chart is the z-score of the retail and professional investor sentiment composite index of bullish sentiment. Notably, we …
Read More »2025-05-19
This morning, markets are reacting to Moody’s rating downgrade of U.S. debt. For those promoting egregious amounts of “bear porn,” this is nirvana for fear-mongering headlines that gain clicks and views. However, as investors, we need to step back and examine the history of previous debt downgrades and their outcomes for both the stock and …
Read More »2025-05-17
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report The “Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” Rally Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following “Liberation Day.” However, we also made competing cases for the bulls and bears on the market’s next move. “It is always difficult to say whether this is a ‘bear market’ rally while you are in the midst of it.
Read More »2025-05-16
Fisher Investments recently wrote an interesting article asking whether corporate stock buybacks affect markets. Here is their conclusion: “Yes and no? Stocks move on supply and demand. Stock buybacks, where a company buys and takes shares off the market, theoretically reduce supply.
Read More »2025-05-12
Assessing a bear market rally proves challenging when you experience it firsthand. It is only in hindsight that the complete picture reveals itself to investors. Of course, after a bear market rally, investors tend to review their investments and speculate on what they should have done differently.
Read More »2025-05-10
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, and our 401k plan manager tool. The post Earnings Revision Shows Sharp Decline appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2025-05-09
While coming in much stronger than expected, the latest employment data confirmed what we already suspected: the economy is slowing. The reason the employment data is so important is that without employment growth, the economy stalls. It takes, on average, […] The post Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2025-05-05
“Resistance is futile” was a sentence that struck fear in the hearts of Trekkie fans during “Star Trek: The Next Generation,” specifically in both of the “Best Of Worlds” and “First Contact” episodes. In those episodes, the “Starship Enterprise” crew encountered a species called the “Borg.” The Borg’s primary purpose was to achieve “perfection” by assimilating other beings …
Read More »2025-05-03
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Market Runs Into Resistance Last week, we discussed that the market backdrop improved markedly following commentary from the White House that eased concerns about tariffs. To wit: “The market rallied above the 20-DMA this past week as investors found some “silver linings” to the ongoing tariff dispute. Despite China …
Read More »2025-05-02
In investing, success is often judged by numbersâreturns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500. However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of ”awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody. These unspoken goals, while tempting, rarely lead to sustainable investment success. If there were awards for some of these …
Read More »2025-04-28
Despite the recent rally, the correction continues. While wanting to “buy the dip” is tempting, there has been enough technical damage to warrant remaining cautious in the near term. As we have discussed, managing risk requires discipline and the emotional ability to navigate more volatile markets until a more straightforward path for risk-taking emerges. The …
Read More »2025-04-26
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Market Finds Some Hope Last week, we discussed the issue with the spat between President Trump and the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell. As noted then: “While the markets await the next Federal Reserve meeting, the uncertainty over monetary policy weighs on markets as much as the uncertainty about tariffs.
Read More »2025-04-25
Are you a “speculator” or an “investor”? This is an essential question that every individual deploying capital into the financial markets must answer. The reason is that how you answer that question determines how you should behave during market cycles.
Read More »2025-04-21
In financial markets, few technical patterns generate as much attention and anxiety as the death cross. This ominous-sounding term refers to a crossover on a price chart when a short-term moving average, most commonly the 50-day moving average (50-DMA), drops below a long-term moving average, usually the 200-day moving average (200-DMA). The “death cross” is a fantastic …
Read More »2025-04-19
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Trump Reignites Fed Feud Last week, we discussed the “tariff reprieve” that sent stocks ripping higher in the 3rd largest one-day advance on record. “As we said last week, any good news would cause the market to rally sharply. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the …
Read More »2025-04-18
Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years. Such is unsurprising given that inflation spiked following the pandemic in 2020 as consumer spending (demand) was shot into overdrive from stimulus payments and production (supply) was shuttered. To understand why that occurred, we need to revisit …
Read More »2025-04-14
In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market’s “early warning system.” To wit:” “Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often …
Read More »2025-04-11
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Tariff Reprieve Sends Stocks Surging Last week, we noted that the market was not expecting retaliation from China. “Rather than coming to the table to negotiate, China responded with a reciprocal 34% tariff on the U.S. plus export controls on rare earth metals needed for technological production. China is …
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The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag that hasn’t yet caught up with reality. As we have discussed, the American consumer is …
Read More »2025-04-07
Last week, we noted that “nothing good happens below the 200-DMA,” and the tariff-induced market crash this past week confirmed that statement. However, we also noted that over the last 30 years, previous failures at the 200-DMA have also often been buying opportunities. That is unless some ”event” of magnitude creates a massive shift in analysts’ estimates. …
Read More »2025-04-05
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report The “Liberation Day” Crash Last week, we noted that it would not be uncommon for the market to retest recent lows. That is what happened on Monday morning before rallying sharply off that level. However, that rally was short-lived as President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on Wednesday afternoon liberated the …
Read More »2025-04-04
A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. When sentiment shifts due to anticipated weakness in any of these areas, equity prices often decline, reflecting …
Read More »2025-04-01
In last week’s post, “Is the correction over?” we wrote about the potential for a rally back to the 200-DMA. However, the failure of that test increased short-term concerns. As we noted in that post, there were early indications of buyers returning to the market. To wit: “The chart below has four subpanels. The first …
Read More »2025-03-29
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Failure At The 200-DMA Last week, we noted that the market performance, while distressing as of late, has been well within regular correctionary market cycles from a historical perspective. To wit: “While Trump’s tariffs and bearish headlines currently dominate investors’ psychology, we must remember that corrections are a normal …
Read More »2025-03-28
Following the latest Federal Reserve meeting, there was a massive surge in media headlines stating “stagflation.” The media’s stagflation panic is unsurprising as it elicits memories of the late 1970s during the Arab oil embargo. Of course, a “stagflation” is excellent fodder for clicks and views as it scares the âbejeebersâ out of people. Over the last …
Read More »2025-03-22
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Is A Bottom Beginning To Form? Last week, we noted that the market performance, while distressing as of late, has been well within regular correctionary market cycles from a historical perspective.
Read More »2025-03-21
U.S. recession risks have been a headline over the last few weeks as the markets sold off. “Goldman Sachs and Moodyâs Analytics in recent days joined forecasters raising alarm about the increased likelihood of an economic downturn.
Read More »2025-03-18
It has been an interesting correction. The average retail investor was “buying the dip” despite having an extremely bearish outlook. This is an interesting point because, as shown, the retail investor used to be considered a ”contrarian indicator” as they were prone to be driven by emotional behaviors that led them to “buy high and sell low.” …
Read More »2025-03-15
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Market Volatility Spikes Last week, we discussed that the market continues to track Trump’s first Presidential term as he launched a trade war with China. “However, despite the deep levels of negativity, the current correction is well within the context of the volatility seen during Trump’s first term as …
Read More »2025-03-14
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.” The entire article is worth reading, but here are the five key reasons investors often fail at investing: These are great points, particularly now that …
Read More »2025-03-01
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report February Weakness And The Outlook For March Last week, we discussed that continued bullish exuberance and high levels of complacency can quickly turn into volatility. Over the previous week, the market fell sharply following news of a potential viral outbreak in China and more concerns about tariffs from the …
Read More »2025-02-28
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped: âPrice Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.â One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull …
Read More »2025-02-25
Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. As noted last week, correlations between all asset classes, whether international or emerging markets, gold or bitcoin, have all gone to one. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations …
Read More »2025-02-22
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report New Coronavirus Discovery Shakes Markets Last week, we discussed that continued bullish exuberance and high levels of complacency can quickly turn into volatility. As we noted then, introducing an unexpected, exogenous event can soon lead to a price decline if investors begin to reprice forward expectations. On Friday, that …
Read More »2025-02-21
For Part 1 on “Tariff Risk” read: Tariff Impact Not As Bearish As Predicted. In “Trumpflation” we discussed why the tariff risk was not inflation. To wit: “Today, globalization and technology give consumers vast choices in the products they buy. While instituting a tariff on a set of products from China may indeed raise the …
Read More »2025-02-18
Last week, we discussed the surge in retail exuberance in the market following the election of President Trump. “The market defies more negative news because retail investors continue to step in and “buy the dip.” In our recent Bull Bear reports, we discussed the push by retail investors, but looking at retail sentiment is quite …
Read More »2025-02-15
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Market Shakes Off Inflation Data I am back from traveling, and we have a good bit to catch up on since our last report. If you missed it, I provided an update on Tuesday, updating all the weekly technical and statistical data we produce. Most noteworthy in that report was …
Read More »2025-02-14
There are many media-driven narratives about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the markets. Most of them are incredibly bearish, predicting the absolute worst possible outcomes. For fun, I asked ChatGPT what the expected impact of Trump’s tariffs will likely be. Here is the answer: “One of the immediate consequences of increased tariffs …
Read More »2025-02-11
I could not produce our weekly Bull Bear Report this past weekend as I presented at Michael Campbell’s Moneytalks Conference in Vancouver. However, I wanted to use today’s technical update to review some of the statistical analysis we produce each week in that commentary. Such is mainly the case given last Monday’s “tariff” shock and …
Read More »2025-02-07
The Federal Reserve’s record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial conditions. In the most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve changed its statement to support a pause in the current interest rate-cutting cycle. As noted by Forbes: “The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee agreed unanimously …
Read More »2025-02-04
Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. Such was not unexpected, as contained in the Trump tariff Executive Order {SEE HERE}. Specifically, that order stated: “[Sec 2, SubSection (h)]: Sec. 2. (a) All articles that are products of Canada as defined …
Read More »2025-02-01
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Administrative Note – No Newsletter Next Week Next weekend, I am flying to Vancouver to deliver the keynote address at Mike Campbell’s annual Moneytalks Conference. As such, I won’t be able to produce a newsletter next week. I appreciate your patience, and the full newsletter will return the following …
Read More »2025-01-31
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election. Such is particularly the case with recent executive orders signed by Trump, which fulfill Trump’s promises to “Make America Great Again.” Given that short-term market dynamics are driven primarily by sentiment, as investors, we can not dismiss …
Read More »2025-01-28
On Monday, markets were rocked by news that a Chinese Artificial Intelligence model, DeepSeek, performed better than expected at a lower development cost. As we noted in our Daily Market Commentary yesterday: “The 3% panic sell-off on the Tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 futures is focused on the view that Chinaâs DeepSeek AI model rollouts show AI products …
Read More »2025-01-25
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report January Barometer On Track Last week, we noted that with the first five days of January making a positive return, such set the “January Barometer” in motion. If you missed our previous discussions, we reviewed the historical precedents of “So goes January, so goes the month.” âHowever, even with …
Read More »2025-01-24
I recently debated with Michael Pento, who made an interesting statement that increases in the money supply, the deficit, and a return to quantitative easing (QE) will lead to 1970s-style inflation. The recent experience of inflation in 2021 and 2022 would seem to justify such a view. However, is that historically the case, or was …
Read More »2025-01-21
In a recent post, I discussed Wall Street’s return estimates for 2025 for the S&P 500 index. To wit: “We have some early indications of Wall Street targets for the S&P 500 index, and, as is always the case, they are optimistic for the coming year. The median estimate is for the market to rise …
Read More »2025-01-17
As we head into 2025, investors are giddy over the market returns of the last two years. As shown, the annual returns, while elevated, have come with only average volatility along the way. However, while most analysts and investors expect 2025 to be another bullish year, there is always a risk of a more disappointing …
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Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Administrative Note I am publishing the report a day early as we are holding our Economic and Investment Summit tomorrow morning. As such, all the data in this report is either as of Thursdayâs close or early Friday morning. Therefore, any erroneous conclusions will be corrected in Mondayâs Daily …
Read More »2025-01-14
In last week’s discussion with Thoughtful Money, I noted that we are becoming more “tactically bearish” as we progress into 2025. While we have remained primarily bullish in equity positioning over the last two years, several risks are now worth considering. However, it is critical to note that being “tactically bearish” does NOT mean we …
Read More »2025-01-11
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report One Week Left To Get Your Tickets Don’t miss the opportunity to get your tickets for the 2025 Economic and Investing Summit. Seating is extremely limited, and this year’s event is almost sold out. We have set aside time to visit with attendees one-on-one to answer your burning questions …
Read More »2025-01-10
I publish an updated version of my New Year âinvestorâ resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my portfolio management practices. As with all resolutions made at the beginning of a new year, it is not uncommon …
Read More »2025-01-07
“Curb Your Enthusiasm,” which ran its series finale last year, starred Larry David as an over-the-top version of himself in a comedy series that showed how seemingly trivial details of day-to-day life can precipitate a catastrophic chain of events. The show never failed to deliver a laugh but also reminded me that unexpected events can …
Read More »2025-01-04
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Last Chance For Early Bird Registration Since New Year’s fell in the middle of the week, I am extending the “Early Bird Discount” for our upcoming RIA 2025 Economic Summit through Sunday for our weekly newsletter readers. Don’t miss the opportunity to get your tickets for the 2025 Economic …
Read More »2025-01-03
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, ”Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”. I often forget how old I have become, and the investing legends of my youth are no longer there and are lost to the sands of time. …
Read More »2024-12-28
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Last Chance For Early Bird Registration Get your tickets for the 2025 Economic and Investing Summit before prices increase on January 1st. Seating is very limited. Did Santa Get Stuck In The Chimney? Last week, we discussed that the selloff heading into Christmas was the setup for the beginning …
Read More »2024-12-27
When the Obama Administration first suggested the Affordable Care Act following the Financial Crisis, we argued that the outcome would be substantially higher, not lower, healthcare costs. It is interesting today that economists and the media complain about surging healthcare costs with each inflation report but fail to identify the root cause of that escalation. …
Read More »2024-12-24
We want to take this opportunity to wish you, your family, and your loved ones a very merry and joyful Christmas. We also want to say âThank Youâ for all of your support, loyal readership, and the friends we have made through sharing ideas over the last year. While it may be deemed âpolitically incorrectâ these days to say such …
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We want to take this opportunity to wish you, your family, and your loved ones a very merry and joyful Christmas. We also want to say âThank Youâ for all of your support, loyal readership, and the friends we have made through sharing ideas over the last year. While it may be deemed âpolitically incorrectâ these days to say such …
Read More »2024-12-21
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Powell & A Government Shutdown Hits Stocks Last week, we noted the ongoing market churn that could last into this week’s Fed meeting. To wit: “That certainly seemed the case this past week, with the market trading being fairly sloppy. Attempts to push the market higher were repeatedly met …
Read More »2024-12-20
Itâs that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and predicts next year’s market returns. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, these forecasts are often wrong and sometimes very wrong. For example, on December 7th, 2021, we wrote an article about the predictions for 2022. âThere is one thing …
Read More »2024-12-17
I never thought someone would label me a “Permabull.” This is particularly true of the numerous articles I wrote over the years about the risks of excess valuations, monetary interventions, and artificially suppressed interest rates. However, here we are. “Lance, you are just another permabull talking your book. When this market crashes you will still be telling …
Read More »2024-12-14
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report First Comes The Fed, Then Santa Last week, we discussed that the risk to the markets was the annual portfolio rebalancing process. To wit: “With the year-end approaching, portfolio managers need to rebalance their holdings due to tax considerations, distributions, and annual reporting. For example, as of this writing, …
Read More »2024-12-13
Understanding the trajectory of corporate earnings is crucial for investors, as these earnings significantly influence stock valuations and market performance. Economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) provide valuable insights into the economic environment that shapes company profitability. …
Read More »2024-12-10
While analysts are currently very optimistic about the market, the combined risk of high valuations and the need to rebalance portfolios in the short term may pose an unanticipated threat. This is particularly the case given the current high degree of speculation and leverage in the market.
Read More »2024-12-07
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report Everybody Is Very Bullish Last week, we discussed how speculation and leverage have returned in earnest to the market as investors rush to take on increasing levels of risk. With markets rising steadily all year, it is unsurprising to witness investors lulled into an elevated sense of complacency. Stocks, …
Read More »2024-12-06
Corporations are currently producing the highest level of profitability, as a percentage of GDP, in history. However, understanding corporate profitability involves more than glancing at quarterly earnings reports. At its core, the Kalecki Profit Equation provides a valuable framework, especially when exploring the reasons behind todayâs elevated profit margins and what could disrupt them. James …
Read More »2024-12-03
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify. As discussed in last week’s #BullBearReport, leverage and speculation are at the heart of many such cycles. These two powerful forces support the amplification of gains during upswings but can accelerate losses in downturns. Todayâs market environment shows …
Read More »2024-11-30
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report A Note Of Thanksgiving While belated, we sincerely hope you had a happy and fulfilling Thanksgiving holiday. In the words of Henry David Thoreau, âI am grateful for what I am and have. My Thanksgiving is perpetual.â All of us at RIA Advisors and Real Investment Advice are grateful …
Read More »2024-11-26
Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk). By observing these spreads, investors can gauge …
Read More »2024-11-23
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report A Holiday Rally Is Likely Last week, we discussed the impact of the Trump Presidency on the financial markets based on expectations of tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation. Since then, the ”Trump Trade” went into full swing, pushing the markets higher; however, as we noted, that the trading had gotten a …
Read More »2024-11-22
With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the worries about tariffs and pro-business policies sparked concerns of “Trumpflation.” Inflation has been a top concern for policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, especially following the sharp price increases experienced over the past few years. However, growing evidence shows inflationary pressures continue to ease significantly, paving the way …
Read More »2024-11-19
Following President Trump’s re-election, the S&P 500 has seen an impressive surge, climbing past 6,000 and sparking significant optimism in the financial markets. Unsurprisingly, the rush by perma-bulls to make long-term predictions is remarkable.
Read More »2024-11-16
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report A Pause That Refreshes? Last week, we discussed that with the election over and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, many market headwinds were put behind us. To wit; “As a result, the market surged higher, hitting our year-end target of 6000 on Friday. Furthermore, since election day, the …
Read More »2024-11-15
Paul Tudor Jones recently voiced concerns that rising U.S. deficits and debt and increasing interest rates could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained borrowing will trigger inflation, raise interest rates, and eventually overwhelm the governmentâs ability to manage its debt obligations. In short, his thesis is that interest …
Read More »2024-11-12
Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index. To wit: “Consumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 âTrumpâ tax cuts.” (Note: this survey was …
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Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Boardâs Sentiment Index. To wit:
âConsumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 âTrumpâ tax cuts.â (Note: this survey was completed before the Presidential Election.)
We also discussed householdsâ allocations to equities, which, according to Federal Reserve data, have reached the highest levels on record.
In that article, we discussed the risk associated with high levels of investor exuberance.
âRisk isnât always what it seems. When the market feels the safest, thatâs often when itâs often the riskiest. Think about it â when everything is
Read More »2024-11-09
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report S&P 6000…Already? Last week, we discussed the expected derisking heading into an uncertain election. “There is an important lesson in this week’s action. Over the last several weeks, we have warned about the weakening of momentum and relative strength and the triggering of the MACD ‘sell signal.’ However, many …
Read More »2024-11-08
The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic …
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The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and geopolitical events.
Here are some quick thoughts about what we at RIA Advisors think about the stock and bond markets in 2025.
Stock Markets
Upside Potential: During the Trump presidency, he will focus on ensuring the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, passed in 2017, does not sunset in 2025, which will keep corporate tax rates at 21%. However, it is not unlikely that he will also push for a new
Read More »2024-11-05
With Election Day finally here, markets are bracing for potential volatility. History shows that the stock market can react unpredictably to election outcomes, especially when the results are unclear or contested. In past elections, sudden policy shifts, political uncertainty, or contentious outcomes caused heightened volatilityâmaking it essential to prepare your portfolio now to weather whatever …
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With Election Day finally here, markets are bracing for potential volatility. History shows that the stock market can react unpredictably to election outcomes, especially when the results are unclear or contested. In past elections, sudden policy shifts, political uncertainty, or contentious outcomes caused heightened volatilityâmaking it essential to prepare your portfolio now to weather whatever the day brings.
The S&P 500 has averaged a 7% gain during U.S. presidential election years since 1952. While a 7% gain is far from disastrous, it is also well short of the 22% gain this year. Of course, investors need to remember that past performance does not guarantee future returns, and there have only been 18 presidential elections since 1952.
Notably, this is the best election-year
Read More »2024-11-02
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report One The Greatest Risk-Adjusted Returns…Ever Last week, we discussed the break of the rising wedge pattern. “Unsurprisingly, the market stumbled a bit this past week, breaking the “rising wedge” pattern to the downside. However, the market continues to find buyers at the 20-DMA as portfolio managers are unwilling to …
Read More »2024-11-01
Corporate buybacks have become a hot topic, drawing criticism from regulators and policymakers. In recent years, Washington, D.C., has considered proposals to tax or limit them. Historically, buybacks were banned as a form of market manipulation, but in 1982, the SEC legalized open-market repurchases through Rule 10b-18. Although intended to offer companies flexibility in managing …
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Corporate buybacks have become a hot topic, drawing criticism from regulators and policymakers. In recent years, Washington, D.C., has considered proposals to tax or limit them. Historically, buybacks were banned as a form of market manipulation, but in 1982, the SEC legalized open-market repurchases through Rule 10b-18. Although intended to offer companies flexibility in managing capital, buybacks have evolved into tools often serving executive interests over broader shareholder value.
This article explores the mechanics of buybacks, how they impact markets, and whether they truly return capital to shareholdersâor merely enrich insiders.
The Rise of Corporate Buybacks: By the Numbers
Since 2003, U.S. corporations have spent over $11 trillion on share repurchases. Corporate
Read More »2024-10-29
Key market indicators for November 2024 present a complex but opportunity-filled environment for traders and investors. Following the first phase of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing global uncertainties, the technical landscape suggests several notable shifts. Letâs explore the key market indicators to watch.
Note: If you are unfamiliar with basic technical analysis, this video is a short tutorial.
Seasonality and Breakout Patterns
As discussed recently, Seasonality is a crucial key market trend in November. Historically, the stock market transitions from the weaker summer months into a stronger end-of-year rally, often dubbed the âSanta Claus Rally,â beginning mid-December. On a rolling 6-month basis, November to April has both the highest percentage returns and the
Read More »2024-10-25
I was emailed several times about a recent Morningstar article about J.P. Morganâs warning of lower forward returns over the next decade. That was followed up by numerous emails about Goldman Sachsâ recent warnings of 3% annualized returns over the next decade.
While we have previously covered many of these articleâs points, a comprehensive analysis is needed. Letâs start with the overall conclusion from JP Morganâs article:
âThe investment bankâs models show the average calendar-year return for the S&P 500 could shrink to 5.7%, roughly half the level since World War II. Millennials and Generation Z might not enjoy the robust returns from U.S. stocks that helped swell the retirement accounts of their parents and grandparents.â
While such a statement may seem obvious to
Read More »2024-10-22
Seasonality has long influenced stock market trends, offering insights into predictable cycles of strength and weakness throughout the year. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the Stock Traderâs Almanac, is one of the most well-known contributors to studying these patterns. His research has highlighted that certain periods of the year consistently present better opportunities for investors to generate returns, while other times warrant caution.
The adage â Sell May and Go Away â is a common topic of discussion that many investors are familiar with. The historical analysis supports that the market tends to be the weakest of the year during the summer months. Hirschâs Stock Traderâs Almanac introduced the idea that the stock market follows a seasonal rhythm, where certain times of the year
Read More »2024-10-18
In times of disaster and destruction, a common narrative often emerges that rebuilding efforts will lead to economic growth. The idea that repairing damage and replacing destroyed goods creates jobs that spur consumption and stimulate economic activity is tempting. However, as French economist FrĂ©dĂ©ric Bastiat explained in his famous âBroken Window Theory,â this reasoning is fundamentally flawed. Rather than generating net economic benefits, destruction diverts resources and wealth that could have been used for more productive purposes, ultimately stifling real economic growth.
Recent events, particularly the devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024, provide a clear example of why destruction does not create long-term economic prosperity. Despite the short-term boost
Read More »2024-10-15
In the movies, greed is a trait often exhibited by the rich and powerful as a means to an end. Of particular note is the famous quote from Michael Douglas in the 1987 movie classic âWall Street:â
âThe point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good.
2024-10-11
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released its second-quarter GDP report for 2024, showcasing a 2.96% growth rate. This number has sparked discussions among investors and analysts, particularly those predicting an imminent recession. There are certainly many supportive data points that have historically predicted recessionary downturns. The reversal of the yield curve inversion, the 6-month rate of change in the leading economic index, and most recently, consumer confidence warn of a recessionary onset.
However, despite these warning signs, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, defying many bearish forecasts. This article will explore the recent GDP report, the risks to continued growth, and potential investing opportunities.
Defying Recession Calls: The
Read More »2024-10-08
When most people hear the word ârisk,â they think about wild market swings, scary headlines, and losing money overnight, but Howard Marks, Co-Chairman and Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management, takes a different approach. In his new video series How to Think About Risk, Marks digs deep into what risk is and how investors should handle it. Spoiler alert: Itâs not just about volatility.
The CFA Institute recently summarized the video stream, but I wanted to elaborate on some of Howard Markâs views.
Letâs break down some key lessons from Marks that can help you rethink your investing approach to risk.
Risk Isnât Just Volatility
One of the biggest takeaways from Marksâ series is the idea that risk and volatility arenât the same thing. For years, many investors (and academics)
Read More »2024-10-04
As the November 2024 election draws near, the election outcome will profoundly affect the financial markets. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency, each administration will bring distinct policies creating investment opportunities and potential risks for investors.
Read More »2024-10-01
We are currently in the âeverything market.â It doesnât matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isnât likely for the reasons you think. A recent Marketwatch interview with the always bullish Jim Paulson got his reasoning for the rally.
âIt is this cocktail of âfull supportâ at the front end of a bull market which commonly has created an âEverything Marketâ during the early part of a new bull. That is, for a period, almost everything simultaneously rises â value, growth, small, large, defensive, and cyclical stocks â and usually by a lot.
Short rates are falling, bond yields have declined, money growth is rising, fiscal stimulus has again expanded, and disinflation is still evident; and because of this new and overwhelming
Read More »2024-09-27
An analysis of Presidential Candidate Trumpâs policy proposals recently suggests that tax cuts will increase the deficit. While the raw analysis is correct, as it subtracts the potential for reduced tax collections from the tariff revenue, it ignores the impact on economic growth.
There is much rhetoric about the impact of tax cuts, mostly centering around âonly benefitting the rich.â While it may seem that âthe richâ are the ones who benefit, there are two important points to consider. First, âthe richâ already pay most of the taxes. The Tax Foundation shows that the top 10% of income earners paid 59.1% of taxes. The top 25% of income earners comprised nearly 70% of all tax revenue, with the top 50% paying 97% of all taxes.
Of course, such begs the question of those
Read More »2024-09-24
Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. For investors, understanding how similar rate cuts have historically impacted markets and which sectors tend to benefit is key to navigating the months ahead.
In this post, we will explore the historical market performance following similar 50-basis-point rate cuts, highlight the best-performing sectors and market factors after such cuts, and outline three critical risks investors should be aware of heading into year-end.
Historical Outcomes To Rate Cuts
A 50-basis-point rate cut, especially the first one, is an aggressive
Read More »2024-09-20
When stock markets rise, the bullish narrative tends to dominate, overlooking the potential impact of market declines. This oversight stems from two main problems: a basic misunderstanding of math and timeâs critical role in investing. Every year, I receive the following chart as a counterargument when discussing the importance of managing risk during a portfolioâs life cycle. The chart shows that while the average bull market advance is 149%, the average bear market decline is just -32%.
So, why bother managing risk when markets rise 4.7x more over the long term than they fall?
As with any long-term analysis, one should quickly realize the most critical issue for every investorâtime.
The Reality of Long-Term Stock Market Returns
Yes, since 1900, the stock market has
Read More »2024-09-17
Since 2020, momentum investing has generated significantly better returns than other strategies. Such is not surprising, given the massive amounts of stimulus injected into the financial system. However, Brett Arends for Marketwatch noted in 2021 that momentum investing can give you an edge.
Read More »2024-09-13
The August jobs report highlighted a critical reality: the labor market is cooling off. While the headline figures seemed decent, the underlying data reveals clear warning signs that worker demand is slowing. Investors should pay attention because the link between employment and its impact on the economy and the market is undeniable. While often overlooked, as we will discuss, there is an undeniable link between economic activity and corporate earnings. Employment is the driver of a consumption-based economy. Consumers must produce first before consuming, so employment is critical to corporate earnings and market valuations. We will discuss these in order.
Slowing Labor Market: The First Red Flag
The August jobs report indicated that job creation has slowed dramatically,
Read More »2024-09-10
The S&P 500 index is a critical benchmark for the U.S. equity market, and its performance often dictates investor sentiment and decision-making. Between November 1, 2022, and September 6, 2024, the S&P 500 experienced a significant rally but not without volatility. Currently, investors have very mixed views about where markets are heading next as concerns of a recession linger or what changes to monetary policy will cause.
However, as investors, we must trade the market we have today. Therefore, using technical analysis, we can explore bullish and bearish market dynamics to assist us in managing risk more effectively. This blog will outline three bullish and bearish perspectives using momentum, relative strength, and other key technical indicators. Finally, we will conclude with five
Read More »2024-09-06
It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than driving to a local retailer or manufacturer, we order it online. Of course, we mustnât dismiss the rise of social media, which connects us to everyone and everything more than ever.
Economists and experts have long argued that technological advances drive U.S. economic growth and productivity. As innovations emerge, they play a crucial role in shaping the economy, improving efficiency, and enhancing productivity across various sectors. From artificial intelligence to automation, the benefits of technological progress are widespread and profound.
For example, automation and artificial
Read More »2024-09-03
Since the end of the âYen Carry Tradeâ correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
Read More »2024-08-30
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Letâs start with the deficit. Much angst exists over the rise in interest rates. The concern is whether the government can continue to fund itself, given the post-pandemic surge in fiscal deficits. From a purely âpersonal financeâ perspective, the concern is valid. âLiving well beyond oneâs meansâ has always been a recipe for financial disaster.
Notably, excess spending is not just a function of recent events but has been 45 years in the making. The government started
Read More »2024-08-27
As noted in this past weekendâs newsletter, following the âYen Carry Tradeâ blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
Note: We wrote this article on Saturday, so all data and analysis is as of Fridayâs market close.
For example, three weeks ago, the growth sectors of the market were highly oversold, while the previous lagging defensive sectors were overbought. That was not surprising, as the growth sectors of the market were the most exposed to the âYen Carry Trade. â
We saw much the same in the Risk Range Analysis (Note: both sets of analysis presented are published weekly in the Bull Bear Report).
As explained in the weekly report:
Two critical points. First, three weeks ago, many sectors and
Read More »2024-08-23
The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a âsoft landingâ boosting the stock market. However, as is often the case, the devil is in the details. We uncover a more troubling picture when we peel back the layers of this seemingly positive data. Seasonal adjustments, downward revisions, and rising delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans suggest a more cautious view. The consumerâthe backbone of the U.S. economyâmay be in more trouble than the headline numbers indicate.
The Mirage of Seasonal Adjustments
The July retail sales report showed a sharp increase of 1.0% month-over-month, surpassing expectations. However, while that number supports the idea of a
Read More »2024-08-20
The marketâs 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us.
However, the picture becomes more nuanced as we examine the technical levels and broader market conditions. While the recent bounce suggests the market decline may be over, risks remainâparticularly with the November election looming. Letâs dive into the details.
The August Decline: What Caused It?
August has historically been volatile for markets; this year was no exception. A combination of factors drove the S&P 500âs 8.5% drop:
Read More »2024-08-16
I was recently asked about the seemingly strong âeconomic growthâ rate as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting rates.
âIf economic growth is so strong, as noted by the recent GDP report, then why would the Federal Reserve cut rates?â
Itâs a good question that got me thinking about the trend of economic growth, the debt, and where we will likely be.
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth. However, the problem is that while the artificial stimulus created a surge in inflationary pressures, it did little to spark
Read More »2024-08-13
Are the âMega-Capâ stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investorsâ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency. As we noted previously:
âWhile there have certainly been more extended periods in the market without a 2% decline, it is essential to remember that low volatility represents a high âcomplacencyâ with investors. In other words, the longer the market moves higher without a significant correction, the more confident investors become. They respond by raising their allocations to equities (risk) and reducing their allocations to cash (safety).â
As repeatedly discussed in June and July, a 5-10% correction is normal and occurs almost
Read More »2024-08-09
A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they arenât the economic saviors they are touted to be.
What Is A Universal Basic Income (UBI)
To understand why the theory of universal basic income (UBI) is heavily flawed, we need to understand what UBI is.
âBasic income, also called universal basic income (UBI), is a public governmental program for a periodic payment delivered to all citizens of a given population without a means test or work requirement. Basic income can be implemented nationally, regionally, or locally, and is an unconditional income sufficient to meet
Read More »2024-08-06
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the âYen Carry Tradeâ blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.
Read More »2024-08-02
Economist Claudia Sahm developed the âSahm Rule,â which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rateâs three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As shown, the latest employment report has triggered that indicator.
So, does this mean a recession is imminent? Maybe. However, we can now add this indicator to the long list of other recessionary indicators, also flashing warning signs.
As discussed in âConference Board Scraps Its Recession Call,â the Leading Economic Index (LEI) has a long history of accurately predicting recession outcomes. As we showed, each previous decline in the 6-month rate of change in the LEI from the Conference Board has aligned with a recession. We are currently in one of the most extended periods on record
Read More »2024-07-23
We noted last Friday that over the previous few years, a handful of âMega-Capitalizationâ (mega-market capitalization) stocks have dominated market returns and driven the bull market. In that article, we questioned whether the dominance of just a handful of stocks can continue to drive the bull market. Furthermore, the breadth of the bull market rally has remained a vital concern of the bulls.
Read More »2024-06-04
In 2022, we discussed the marketâs deviations from long-term growth trends. That discussion centered on Jeremy Granthamâs commentary about market bubbles.
Read More »2024-04-26
The latest retail sales data suggests a robust consumer, leading economists to become even more optimistic about more robust economic growth this year.
Read More »2024-04-12
Is immigration why employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue defying mainstream economistsâ estimates? Many are asking this question as the U.S. experiences a flood of immigrants across the southern border.
Read More »2024-03-19
With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. If you donât understand the importance of corporate share buybacks and the blackout periods, here is a snippet of a 2023 article I previously wrote.
Read More »2024-03-12
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isnât surprising given the evolution of the market into a âcasinoâ following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.
Read More »2024-03-10
Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies.
Read More »2024-03-05
Valuation metrics have little to do with what the market will do over the next few days or months. However, they are essential to future outcomes and shouldnât be dismissed during the surge in bullish sentiment. Just recently, Bank of America noted that the market is expensive based on 20 of the 25 valuation metrics they track.
Read More »2024-02-16
Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didnât hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economistsâ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average American as follows.
Read More »2022-07-15
âGiant corporations are using inflation as cover to raise their prices & boost their profits. In industry after industry, we have too little competition & companies have too much power to increase prices. Iâve been calling out this corporate profiteering & price gougingâ â Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Read More »2022-05-30
High inflation has captured the headlines as of late particularly as CPI recently hit the highest levels since 1981. Some are even suggesting we will face hyperinflation. However, while inflation is certainly present, the question to be answered is whether it will remain that way, or if the worst may already be behind us?
Read More »2022-03-16
Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With CNBC airing âMarkets In Turmoilâ every time the market dips, itâs no wonder investor sentiment is now the lowest we have seen financial crisis lows.
Read More »2022-03-04
Hiking rates into a wildly overvalued market is potentially a mistake. So says Bank of America in a recent article.
Optimists expecting the stock market to weather the rate-hike cycle as theyâve done in the past are missing one important detail, according to Bank of America Corp.âs strategists.While U.S. equities saw positive returns during previous periods of rate increases, the key risk this time round is that the Federal Reserve will be âtightening into an overvalued market,â the strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a note.âThe S&P 500 is more expensive ahead of the first rate hike than any other cycle besides 1999-00,â they said.â â Yahoo Finance
While many media experts suggest that investors should not be concerned about rate hikes, BofA makes a very valid point
Read More »2022-03-01
âSell Energy Stocksâ Was Originally Published At Marketwatch.com
Sell energy stocks? Such certainly seems counter-intuitive advice given high oil prices, geopolitical stress, and surging inflation. However, some issues suggest this could indeed be the time to âsell high.â
Before we go further, it is essential to state that I am not recommending selling energy stocks in total. As is always the case, portfolio management is about minimizing risk and preserving capital. Reducing energy exposure by selling portions of existing positions is more prudent.
As shown, there is a high correlation between the price of oil, the energy sector as represented by SPDR Energy ETF (XLE,) and even oil stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM.) Therefore, if oil prices decline, energy stocks will also.
Read More »2022-01-19
The market selloff into January rattled investors as concerns of âSo Goes January, So Goes The Yearâ began to dampen expectations. Combined with a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, rising inflation, and a reduction in liquidity, investor concerns seem to be well-founded.
Read More »2021-08-08
Previously, we discussed Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its one limitation of inflation. However, as is always the case when âtheoriesâ collide with âreality,â the tenants of the theory are quickly discarded.
Read More »2021-08-03
The âFear Of Missing Outâ has infected retail and hedge funds alike as they ramp up exposure to chase performance. We have previously discussed the near âmaniaâ of retail investors taking on exceptional risk in various manners. From increasing leverage, engaging in speculative options trading, and taking out personal loans to invest, itâs all evidence of overconfident investors.
Read More »2021-06-28
Furthermore, letâs understand what these debates are really about. The debates over capitalism arenât about Mike Jones, who operates the local auto mechanic repair shop. Nor Annie Smith, the operator of a personal training studio. Mike and Annie are taking advantage of a capitalist economy. Capitalism provides the ability to earn more wealth than paid employment.
Read More »2021-05-27
Last weekend, I joined Richard Rosso, CFP and Danny Ratliff, CFPÂ to discuss the outlook for the markets for the rest of this year and take questions from our attendees.
Read More »2021-05-18
âThe strong economic recovery will not get interrupted by inflation or a credit crunch, and the market will soon reach 4,500.â â Ed Yardeni via Advisor Perspectives. After discussing BofAâs view of why the market could drop to 3800, I thought it fair to discuss a more optimistic view.
Read More »2021-05-11
âIf everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?â That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a âcontrarianâ investor, it is usually when âeveryoneâ is talking about an event; it doesnât happen.
As Mark Hulbert noted recently, âeveryoneâ is worrying about a âbubbleâ in the stock market.
2021-05-07
Are stocks âcheap,â or is this just another bullish ârationalization.â Such was the suggestion by the consistently bullish Brian Wesbury of First Trust in a research note entitled âYes, Stocks Are Cheap.â To wit:
âThe Fed remains highly accommodative, there are trillions of dollars of cash on the sidelines, vaccines have reached over 50% of Americans, and the economy is expanding rapidly. Some valuations have been stretched, but the market as a whole remains undervalued. As a result, we remain bullish and are lifting our targets.â
Yes, it is true the Fed remains highly accommodative, which has undoubtedly pushed asset prices higher. In fact, financial conditions recently reached a historic low, which suggests elevated asset valuations ironically.
We have busted the âmyth of cash on the
Read More »2021-05-02
In this issue of âAll Inflation Is Transitory, The Fed WIll Be Late Again.â
Market Review And Update
All Inflation Is Temporary
The Fed Should Be Hiking Now
Portfolio Positioning
#MacroView: No. Bonds Arenât Overvalued.
Sector & Market Analysis
401k Plan Manager
Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha
Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week
Â
Market Review & Update
Last week, we said:
âThe market is trading well into 3-standard deviations above the 50-dma, and is overbought by just about every measure. Such suggests a short-term âcooling-offâ period is likely. With the weekly âbuy signalsâ intact, the markets should hold above key support levels during the next consolidation phase.âÂ
âAs shown above, that is what is currently occurring. While
Read More »2020-12-24
In 2019, we wrote about how corporate share repurchases, or âstock buybacks,â had accounted for nearly all buying in the market. A year later, that significant support for asset prices has reversed.
Read More »2020-08-26
Why this isnât 1920 has everything to starting valuations and future returns. While, generally, Iâm not too fond of comparisons between todayâs markets and the past, Ed Yardeni made a comparison too bombastic to disregard in his blog.
Read More »2020-08-24
The 4% Rule Is Dead. A recent article by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch pointed out this sobering fact but is one we have discussed previously. Retirees have long counted on being able to retire on their assets and take out 4% each year. However, a little more than 20-years later, the âdeath of the withdrawal rateâ has arrived. What should retirees do now?
Read More »2020-08-05
As discussed in Is It Insanely Stupid To Chase Stocks, the market has gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q2-2020 review of Commitment Of Traders report (COT,) we can see how positioning has moved back to extremes.
Read More »2020-07-14
Since the onset of the pandemic, the Fed has entered into the most aggressive monetary campaign. Its goal was to bolster asset markets to restore confidence in the financial system. However, the trap is the Fed is in a position where they can never stop QE as interest rates canât rise ever again.
Read More »2020-07-07
If you missed Part-1 of our series on the âTheory Of MMT Falls Flat When Faced With Reality,â start there. In Part-2, we complete our analysis of the theory and the potential ramifications. The premise of our discussion was this recent explanation of âModern Monetary Theoryâ by Stephanie Kelton.
Read More »2017-11-08
The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth.
Read More »2017-01-22
For the third time in four weeks, the market was closed on Monday due to a holiday. Not only is this week shortened by a holiday, it is also coinciding with the annual Billionaireâs convention in Davos, Switzerland and the Presidential inauguration on Friday. Increased volatility over the next couple of days will certainly not be surprising.
Read More »2016-10-26
Itâs been really busy as of late to cover all of the topics I have wanted to address. One topic, in particular, is the bond market and the ongoing concerns of a âbond bubbleâ due to historically low interest rates in the U.S. and, by direct consequence, historically high bond prices.
Read More »2016-10-23
âIt is not surprising the Fed once again failed to take action as their expectations for economic growth were once again lowered. In fact, as I have noted previously, the Federal Reserve are the worst economic forecasters on the planet.
Read More »2016-09-23
As I noted on Thursday, the Fed non-announcement gave the bulls a reason to charge back into the markets as âaccommodative monetary policyâ is once again extended through the end of the year. Of course, it is not surprising the Fed once again failed …
Read More »2016-09-02
On Tuesday, I noted the end of summer and the entrance into one of the weakest months of the year statistically speaking. âWe can confirm BofAMLâs point by looking at the analysis of each month of September going back to 1960 as shown in the chart below.”
Read More »2016-08-26
As summer begins to fade, and kids return to school, the focus once again turns to the annual event of Central Bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. However, if you only looked at the market as a gauge as to the excitement of the event, well it must have been one pretty boring after-party.
Read More »
On Swiss National Bank 
Main SNB Background Info 
